Media: the US wants to decide the China process but overestimates its capabilities.

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 Media: the US wants to decide the China process but overestimates its capabilities.


This afternoon, Trump said that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and trade representative Lechze will go to China in a few days to consult China on trade issues. However, the outcome of the trip remains to be seen. In the past, some experts said that behind the trade friction between the United States and China, it may be the adjustment of the US comprehensive strategy toward China. In February, Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs, and vice president Bidens deputy national security adviser Leitner, published in the United States foreign affairs an article entitled Chinas re estimate: how Beijing makes Americas expectations fall. Although the article is not as aggressive as the Trump administrations national security strategy report, the article also examines the path of Chinas development in the American perspective, and expresses its disappointment. Reading this article, we can also see the deep logic of the current US strategy toward China. Chivalrous island made a translation and excerpt, and shared it with you. Sum up The United States has been looking forward to deciding Chinas progress, but always overestimating its capabilities. In the first sentence, the author sets the tone for the full text. For this reason, the article gives an example from two dimensions. After World War II, the United States sent George Marshall to China, expecting a peace agreement between the two parties; during the Korean War, the Truman administration was expecting to stop the Chinese army from crossing the Yalu River; during the Vietnam War, the Johnson administration believed that China would restrict its participation in Vietnam. But in these matters, China has disappointed the United States. The Nixon administration has also made an optimistic bet on China. Nixon and Kissinger believe that friendly relations with China can set obstacles between China and the former Soviet Union to make China closer to the United States. In short, Americans believe that with the strength and hegemony of the United States, the United States can shape China into a country that the United States likes. But history has proved that Washington is too confident in itself. In a word, no matter what the United States has to offer stick or carrot, it has failed to change China as much as it wishes. Specifically, the article is divided into three parts: economy, hegemony and international rules. Generally speaking, it can be divided into two parts: Politics and economy. Economics In the field of market economy, Americas illusion toward China is direct and urgent. The first sentence of the paragraph tells the truth: the United States hopes to promote the opening and liberalization of Chinas economy with an opportunity to strengthen business cooperation with China. For example, from the start of President George W. Bushs national security strategy in 1990s, the United States believes that strengthening ties with the outside world is crucial to promoting Chinas economic reform. As a result, the United States began to help China to improve its trade with the outside world in the 90s of last century, including its support for Chinas entry into the WTO in 2001, the start of a high-end economic dialogue with China in 2006, and a bilateral investment agreement with China in the Obama era. As a result, the bilateral trade volume of the two countries increased from US $8 billion in 1986 to US $578 billion in 2016, which has increased by more than 30 times. However, such an increase in trade volume alone is obviously not enough for the United States. They also expect China to further strengthen its economic reform. But in the opinion of the author, China has completely failed to achieve the economic reform they expected, such as failure to fulfill the WTO commitments, too much use of administrative means to intervene in the economy, too much support for the state-owned enterprises, without the same view of foreign enterprises. Not only that, they also quoted a group of data published by the US Department of Commerce last year, eighty percent of American companies thought the Chinese government was not friendly to them, and sixty percent of the companies did not have confidence in the expansion of Chinas opening up. Politics The so-called expectation in the political field is even more frustrated. The article said that in the past, the United States has been having an unrealistic fantasy for China, that is, as long as China adheres to the reform and opening up, integrates into the world economy and becomes richer, then its political democratization is an inevitable trend. However, the present situation is that the Chinese government has made full use of the economic opportunities brought by globalization and greatly enhanced its economic strength, while it has fully retained its political system. This, in turn, reinforces the legitimacy of their own governance. What is more dangerous to the United States may be Chinas series of international strategies. In this view, on the one hand, China actively participate in international affairs and to join APEC, signed the nuclear non proliferation treaty and in Iran and North Koreas mediation; on the other hand, China proposed the establishment of Asian investment bank, The Belt and Road initiative. Moreover, China has made it clear that these institutions should establish their own values, which are different from the existing ones, the US and European norms. Then, the article points out that China is actively promoting the construction of a world-class army, building a third aircraft carrier and seeking military deployment in the South China Sea. All these show that Chinas military strength is approaching the United States, which is unseen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Chinese leaders have no longer insisted on what Deng Xiaoping called keeping a low profile , but rather emphasized the importance of getting up and getting rich. Therefore, the article concludes that China is seeking to take the place of the United States. The 2008 financial crisis, the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan made China feel that the United States is bound to decline. Chinas leaders stressed that Chinas development model has provided new options for other countries. Answer No doubt, a series of events listed in the article give the author a great sense of insecurity. Washington is now facing the most powerful and fearful competitor in modern history. Washington must first give up its wishful thinking against China and accept the failure of its previous strategy toward China. Second, the United States needs to focus on its own and the development of its allies in the Asia Pacific region. The publication of Trumps national security strategy is a new dawn for the author. In their view, this report defines China as a strategic competitor and is a correct step. However, the Trump administrations policies such as reducing the bilateral trade deficit, giving up multilateral agreements and questioning allies have made Washington increasingly uncompetitive. At the same time, China has gradually strengthened its strength in avoiding conflicts. Therefore, the article puts forward that the United States must face the reality, neither seeking isolation, weakening China nor making China better. At the same time, the United States should pay more attention to itself, and the power and behavior of its allies. The international community also has different views on this article. For example, Hongkongs commentary published an editorial saying that the policy of the United States was very paradoxical. This article is also reprinted by Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore. In addition, a senior researcher at the Chinese Center of the Yale University, Yale University, said the article did not correctly understand the history of the past forty years between the United States and the United States, and Yi Ming, the Asia project director of the diplomatic relations association, wrote that it was rather unfair to drop the bath water and even the bathtub. In fact, in the view of sister Island, this is quite similar to what Professor Zheng Yongnian referred to in the Wests new Cold War mentality. Professor Zheng Yongnian has pointed out that the West has neither the ability to contain China or to change China. Therefore, a viable option is to turn China into another Soviet Union, so that the west can at least unite to do its best to curb Chinas expansion and isolate China from a new cold war. From the present perspective, the USs concern for Chinas rise is deep level, and is the opposition of two kinds of ideology and two kinds of logic of thinking. Perhaps China needs to explain to the United States such as the western world that the rise of Chinas rise is harmless, but it is also possible that the United States needs to change its brain and accept the inevitable reality of a multidimensional world. Source of this article: knight errant editor: Han Jiapeng _NN9841 The international community also has different views on this article. For example, Hongkongs commentary published an editorial saying that the policy of the United States was very paradoxical. This article is also reprinted by Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore. In addition, a senior researcher at the Chinese Center of the Yale University, Yale University, said the article did not correctly understand the history of the past forty years between the United States and the United States, and Yi Ming, the Asia project director of the diplomatic relations association, wrote that it was rather unfair to drop the bath water and even the bathtub. In fact, in the view of sister Island, this is quite similar to what Professor Zheng Yongnian referred to in the Wests new Cold War mentality. Professor Zheng Yongnian has pointed out that the West has neither the ability to contain China or to change China. Therefore, a viable option is to turn China into another Soviet Union, so that the west can at least unite to do its best to curb Chinas expansion and isolate China from a new cold war. From the present perspective, the USs concern for Chinas rise is deep level, and is the opposition of two kinds of ideology and two kinds of logic of thinking. Perhaps China needs to explain to the United States such as the western world that the rise of Chinas rise is harmless, but it is also possible that the United States needs to change its brain and accept the inevitable reality of a multidimensional world.