Will the three major points in the US mid-term elections produce a split parliament?

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 Will the three major points in the US mid-term elections produce a split parliament?


Look at one: will there be a split parliament?

This years mid-term elections will re-elect all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 36 governors of 50 states, governors of three overseas territories, 87 legislatures in 99 states, and Washington, D.C., San Francisco and Chicago. The mayor of the city.

Among them, the reelection of the two houses of Congress is the focus of attention. According to the latest polls, the Senate election is more clear, and the Republican Party has a better probability of retaining the majority position in the Senate. The election of the house of Representatives is more stalemate, but in general, the Democratic Party has a greater probability of winning the majority of the house of Representatives.

To be a majority party in the house of Representatives, we need to win at least 218 seats. For Democrats, that means adding at least 23 seats. On November 1, Cooks Political Report, a non-partisan independent election analyst, predicted that the Democratic Party would add 30 to 40 seats in the House of Representatives, higher than previous expectations of 25 to 35 seats. But Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives and Republican, believes that the blue tide of the Democratic Party has broken up before it reaches the shore, and that the battle for the House of Representatives is a hard battle for both parties, and no one is sure of winning until the result of the vote counting is available.

Americans have a tradition of preferring a balanced government in which they do not want the same party to control both the White House and the House of Congress. If Republicans take control of the Senate and Democrats take control of the House of Representatives after the mid-term elections, the Trump administration will have to face the checks and balances of dividing the Congress, and its ability to govern will be greatly reduced.

Two point: state election reverse pattern

At present, about 2/3 of the 50 states in the United States are headed by Republican governors. The Republican Party also relies on its majority status in many state legislatures, making the redrawing of congressional constituencies in favor of the Republican Party.

But National Public Radio predicted Tuesday that Democrats may win more than 10 governorships in the mid-term elections, have a chance to overtake Republicans in the total number of Democratic governors in the United States, and may set some new records in the history of American elections: for example, Georgia may produce the first African-American female governor in the United States; Rita may be the first African-American governor in the state; Colorado may be the first openly gay governor in the United States.

In the mid-term elections, more than 6,600 legislative seats were re-elected in the state legislature, and the impact of the results on American politics should not be underestimated.

Point three: Trump factor affects geometry

The mid-term elections do not elect a president, but President Trump has been at the heart of the Republican campaign from the start of the two-party primaries to the final sprint of the campaign. In the last week of the campaign, Trump traveled to eight states in five days, participated in 11 campaign rallies, and offered sacrifices to plans to abolish tougher and controversial anti-immigration combos such as Birth Citizenship. But these moves are likely to stimulate more Democratic voters while mobilizing Republican votes.

During the mid-term election campaign, the controversial remarks of Trump and the war of words between Trump and the mainstream media in the United States intensified the opposition between the two parties and the division of society around such hot issues as health insurance, immigration, gun control, race, wealth and the appointment of the Chancellor of Justice. Several polls show that the bipartisan votersperception of Trumps bipolarity in words and deeds will boost the voter turnout in the mid-term elections, which will have an important impact on the election results. Trump said at a campaign rally in Mississippi last month, Im not on the ballot, but Im on the ballot because its also about my referendum... I want you to vote as if I were on the ballot. Analysts believe that the results of the mid-term elections will reflect the polarization effect of bipartisan politics in the United States. They can also observe the evolution of the status of moderate forces in the political structure, as well as the trends and influence of independent voters and moderate voters of both parties. Source: Xinhua editor: Xu Jianmei Liu Yangsunding editor: Huang Jia _NNB6466

During the mid-term election campaign, the controversial remarks of Trump and the war of words between Trump and the mainstream media in the United States intensified the opposition between the two parties and the division of society around such hot issues as health insurance, immigration, gun control, race, wealth and the appointment of the Chancellor of Justice.

Several polls show that the bipartisan votersperception of Trumps bipolarity in words and deeds will boost the voter turnout in the mid-term elections, which will have an important impact on the election results. Trump said at a campaign rally in Mississippi last month, Im not on the ballot, but Im on the ballot because its also about my referendum... I want you to vote as if I were on the ballot.

Analysts believe that the results of the mid-term elections will reflect the polarization effect of bipartisan politics in the United States. They can also observe the evolution of the status of moderate forces in the political structure, as well as the trends and influence of independent voters and moderate voters of both parties.