Mid-term elections: Democrats probably win the house of Representatives, but they may not impeach Trump.

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 Mid-term elections: Democrats probably win the house of Representatives, but they may not impeach Trump.


Routine inspection of the president

According to the 1787 Constitution of the United States, the presidency is four years and can only be re-elected once (based on subsequent constitutional amendments); 435 members of the House of Representatives serve for two years, half of which occur during the presidential election and the other half in the middle of the presidential term. The 100 senators were elected in a staggered way for six years. Among the senators, 1/3 were elected in 2012, 2014 and 2016.

In fact, the mid-term elections in the U.S. House of Representatives have evolved into a routine inspection of the President, whose congressional parties need to be examined by voters for two years before entering the next presidential election. House elections have also developed a clear and effective model, in which presidents often perform poorly in mid-term elections. Since the 1920s, the loss of the House of Representatives from the majority to the minority in the mid-term elections has reached 93%. Politicians regard this model as checks and balances.

Whatever the reason, voters always choose to check and balance the presidents party, which can be partly attributed to ideological reasons. Any president tends to seek policies that benefit his partys voters, who will respond by constraining the president in the medium term. The result of this restriction is usually that the opposition party can obtain better voter mobilization ability in the mid-term elections.

None of this is good news for Republicans in the House of Representatives, who are running for election in November, who are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives.

Who will be the house of representatives?

However, it has become a basic fact of the American electoral system that presidential parties almost always perform poorly in the mid-term elections of the House of Representatives. Lets look at the parties that have won the majority of the House of Representatives in history - only once since 1980 has the presidential party won the majority of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. After the 911 terrorist attacks, Bush won the Republican majority in the house of Representatives. In addition, other Presidents have performed fairly well - Democrats won the majority seats in the House of Representatives from President Reagan and President Bush in 1982, 1986, 1990 and 2006, and Republicans won the majority seats in the House of Representatives from President Clinton and President Obama in 1994 and 1998, 2010 and 2014.

Can Republicans keep the Senate?

It can be estimated that the probability or the Democrats will control the house of Representatives. So much investigation of Trump and the administration is likely to follow. From 2007 to 2008, the last two years of President Bushs term, Nancy Pelosi served as Speaker of the House of Representatives. The Democratic Party has thus put forward ambitious domestic policy plans and implemented some of them; in addition, they have formulated relevant issues for the deployment of the 2008 presidential election.

If the Democratic House majority runs with Trump between 2019 and 2020, it is likely to repeat the 2007-2008 model. In addition, the House Democrats need to decide whether to spend their energy on impeachment of Trump. Many of them want to do so, but according to the current situation, Democratic leaders are skeptical about their prospects.

Finally, mid-term elections generally have little predictive power for presidential elections in two yearstime, but much greater predictive power for the House of Representatives. The party that won the majority of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections is likely to retain its control over the presidency in two yearstime.

In the case of the Senate, the newly elected president generally has better luck in the mid-term Senate elections than in the House of Representatives. This is because the current Senate seats were determined six years ago, most of which benefited from the watermelon effect (or so-called snuggling effect of the other partys presidential election at that time, and the party winning the presidential election usually also got a majority of seats in Congress. Specifically, the one-third of the Senate re-election to be held in 2018 was elected by the Democratic Party in 2012, when Barack Obama was elected. Of the 35 seats, Democrats accounted for 27 seats, while Republicans accounted for only 8 seats. Democrats from Republican states like Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana, who were elected with Obama, are in trouble now. On the other hand, few Republicans are in the Democratic seat.

So experts believe that Republicans are likely to remain in control of the Senate, gaining one or two seats to 52 or 53. But this consensus is also not reliable. In addition to the existing polls, an unexpected, nationwide shift of 2 to 3 percentage points in the Democratic Party may lead them to a majority in the Senate. That will undoubtedly become the biggest shock. (the writer is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a professor of Political Science in Yale University, Stryn). This article is an exclusive draft of the Sino-US Friendship and Mutual Trust Cooperation Program of Fudan Development Research Institute. It was first published in the Wechat Public Number of the Sino-US Friendship and Mutual Trust Cooperation Program. The original title is exclusive contribution! Yale Senior Political Science Professor Declassified the Mid-term Elections in the United States. The title and subtitle of the article are drafted by the editor and the contents are slightly abridged. The source of this article: surging news writer: David R. Hugh, editor in chief: Huang Jia _NNB6466

So experts believe that Republicans are likely to remain in control of the Senate, gaining one or two seats to 52 or 53. But this consensus is also not reliable. In addition to the existing polls, an unexpected, nationwide shift of 2 to 3 percentage points in the Democratic Party may lead them to a majority in the Senate. That will undoubtedly become the biggest shock.

(the writer is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a professor of Political Science in Yale University, Stryn). This article is an exclusive draft of the Sino-US Friendship and Mutual Trust Cooperation Program of Fudan Development Research Institute. It was first published in the Wechat Public Number of the Sino-US Friendship and Mutual Trust Cooperation Program. The original title is exclusive contribution! Yale Senior Political Science Professor Declassified the Mid-term Elections in the United States. The title and subtitle of the article are drafted by the editor and the contents are slightly abridged.