Can we talk about whether the conflict in Yemen can go to the end?

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 Can we talk about whether the conflict in Yemen can go to the end?


Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Zhen Chen Lin

Yemens government expressed its willingness to resume peace talks with Yemeni Hussein militants on the 1st to seek an end to years of armed conflict in the country. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia-led multinational coalition forces have recently gathered heavy troops around the Yemeni port city of Hodeida.

Analysts pointed out that although under the influence of the murder of Saudi journalist Kashuji, the United States, Britain and other Western countries have stepped up pressure to urge Saudi Arabia to end the war in Yemen as soon as possible, but because the warring parties have not yet achieved their respective goals, the road of peace talks is still full of obstacles and the prospects are uncertain and optimistic.

Pressure from all sides to promote talks

The Yemeni government said in a statement issued by the official Sabah News Agency on the 1st that it is willing to take an active part in the peace negotiations with the Hussein armed forces initiated by the United Nations.

On October 31, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffith called on all parties concerned in Yemen to resume peace talks as soon as possible and expressed his commitment to bring the Yemeni parties back to the negotiating table within one month. Yemens Hussein armed forces also issued a statement on the same day expressing their willingness to end the armed conflict and participate in peace talks mediated by the United Nations.

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo, Defense Secretary Matisse and British Foreign Secretary Hunt have also called for an end to the Yemeni conflict in recent days. These statements are regarded as the strongest call for a cease-fire by Western countries after the outbreak of the Yemeni war, and are widely interpreted as being related to the Kashuji case.

Wu Bingbing, director of the Institute of Arab Islamic Culture at Peking University, believes that the Yemeni governments willingness to negotiate actually reflects the willingness of its supporters, the multinational coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The recent Yemeni war, which caused a humanitarian disaster, is also a negative asset for Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi government has been under tremendous pressure from all sides because of the Kashuji case. Therefore, Saudi Arabia also hopes to withdraw from the Yemeni battlefield to improve its international image.

Saudi Arabia is in a dilemma.

In September 2014, Yemens Hussein armed forces seized the capital Sanaa, and then occupied southern Yemen, forcing President Hadi to take refuge in Saudi Arabia. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia and other countries launched a military operation code-named decisive storm against Husseins armed forces. In June this year, with the support of Saudi-led multinational coalition forces, Yemeni government forces formally began military operations to recover the port city of Hodeida.

But the three and a half years of Yemen war was bitter for Saudi Arabia. Despite the huge investment of human, financial and material resources, Saudi Arabias military operations have yielded little and failed to achieve the desired goals.

After the start of the war in Hodeida in June, the Saudi-led multinational coalition forces were hampered in their actions because they had been criticized for triggering the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. On the one hand, heavy weapons are difficult to use in Hodeida, where there are many inhabitants. On the other hand, fighting should also ensure the delivery of United Nations relief materials to prevent the humanitarian crisis from deteriorating further. This has made the coalitions military operations far from achieving substantial results.

The Battle of Hodeida is just a microcosm of the Yemeni War, and the long-overwhelmed provinces such as Sadda and Tayz are also the nightmares of the coalition forces. Weapons and equipment are dominant but difficult to win. There are more and more doubts at home and abroad, and Saudi Arabias pressure is increasing day by day.

Regarding the recent gathering of heavy troops around Hodeida by the coalition forces, Wu Bingbing believed that Saudi Arabia should not only restore its image, but also seek to maintain regional influence, while the battlefield situation is not optimistic, so its task at the negotiating table will be more arduous.

The prospect is not optimistic.

Despite the response of all parties to the call for peace talks, fighting between the coalition forces and the Hussein armed forces continued on the battlefield and intensified. In recent days, the Allied forces have massaged heavy troops in Hodeidah and two provinces of sad, and deployed tanks and other heavy weapons. And Hus armed forces are also increasing troops at the front line to deal with possible attacks by coalition forces. Analysts believe that under such circumstances, the peace talks are difficult and the prospects are hard to say.

In fact, the Yemeni government and Hussein armed forces had conducted many rounds of ceasefire negotiations before, but were eventually called to a halt by the Saudi side, because the battlefield situation is not conducive to their own. In the formation of a coalition government, the actual control of the capital Sanaa and other key issues, the parties are also at a standstill. On 8 September, the latest round of peace talks in Yemen hosted by the United Nations in Geneva ended in frustration in the absence of the armed delegation of Hussein. Analysts point out that even if the current round of peace talks can be held smoothly, it will be difficult for the two sides to make big concessions and build mutual trust at the negotiating table, even if it is less than three months apart from the last one and the war stalemate remains. In addition, the US factor is also an important variable. Wu Bingbing pointed out that Saudi Arabia, as a major ally of the United States in the Gulf region, relies on the United States in many aspects such as military equipment and intelligence gathering. A strong U.S. intervention will greatly enhance the possibility of a ceasefire agreement, but it remains to be seen how willing the United States is to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and other countries. (reporter: Nie Yunpeng, Wang Wei): the source of this article: Xinhua editor in charge: Yao Wenguang _NN1682

In fact, the Yemeni government and Hussein armed forces had conducted many rounds of ceasefire negotiations before, but were eventually called to a halt by the Saudi side, because the battlefield situation is not conducive to their own. In the formation of a coalition government, the actual control of the capital Sanaa and other key issues, the parties are also at a standstill.

On 8 September, the latest round of peace talks in Yemen hosted by the United Nations in Geneva ended in frustration in the absence of the armed delegation of Hussein. Analysts point out that even if the current round of peace talks can be held smoothly, it will be difficult for the two sides to make big concessions and build mutual trust at the negotiating table, even if it is less than three months apart from the last one and the war stalemate remains.

In addition, the US factor is also an important variable. Wu Bingbing pointed out that Saudi Arabia, as a major ally of the United States in the Gulf region, relies on the United States in many aspects such as military equipment and intelligence gathering. A strong U.S. intervention will greatly enhance the possibility of a ceasefire agreement, but it remains to be seen how willing the United States is to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and other countries. (reporter: Nie Yunpeng, Wang Wei)