Shenzhen real estate market quality and price down: new housing discount second-hand housing sold

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 Shenzhen real estate market quality and price down: new housing discount second-hand housing sold


Just in the past October, the volume and price of new houses and second-hand houses in Shenzhen were all lost. It is worth noting that in the past three years, when we look back on the New Deal of September 30, 2016, the real estate market in Shenzhen has finally experienced a substantial decline, not only in the statistical data, but also in the real market, because of the discount of new houses and the sell-off of second-hand house owners.

Market cooling, developers discount, buyers wait and see, Shenzhen real estate market expectations have begun to reverse, supply and demand relations have also undergone substantial changes, on the one hand, demand-side wait and see, on the other hand, supply-side expansion, thoroughly entered the buyers market.

In October, Shenzhen developers pushed goods. According to the statistics of American Union Property National Research Center, by the end of October, the number of residential products in Shenzhen had reached 5263 sets, an increase of 46% over September, a new monthly high this year.

Many people in the industry believe that in the supply and demand changes intensified, Shenzhen housing prices will further decline. This situation is just the beginning and will not change much next year, said Jiang Shaojie, general manager of American Associated Property.

Changes in the secondary market

In the autumn of 2018, the most senior real estate practitioners in Shenzhen also felt the chill of the market.

Affected by the price limit of new houses, the average price of new houses in Shenzhen has been declining slightly in recent two years. In October, the average price of first-hand houses in Shenzhen was 54071 yuan per square meter, which was 0.02% and 9 yuan per square meter. Excluding the slight increase of 0.09% in July, the average price of new housing transactions has totaled 24 to a slight drop.

But under the price limit, the average price is distorted. There has been a price cut in the real market. For example, Cosco Xintiandi II, located in Longgang District, Shenzhen, launched a special price house; Taifu Huayue Metropolis, located in Pingshan District, also launched a liquidation of 60 apartments during the National Day, some less than 30,000 yuan per square meter.

A person in charge of a new housing agency said that in recent years, some housing, apartments and shops in Longgang had special prices, and the common reason was project repayment. It used to be to offset the construction cost of the building, but now the builder sells these houses with them, which is very rare in the previous market.

Even so, developers of the new disk to the rate is not ideal. Institutional sources said that in addition to the recent opening of the Green Jinghongshuwan No. 1 and the Phoenix Mansion in Biguiyuan, the removal rate can reach 70%, most of the others are around 20%, better 30% - 40%, and the removal rate is single digit.

As a better reflection of the real market of second-hand housing, there have been many cases of owner price reduction, which in the past three years in Shenzhen property market has hardly appeared.

According to the data of Shenzhen Central Plains Research Institute, the price of second-hand housing in October was 52481 yuan per square metre, a decline of 0.73% annually, and the decline was 0.57 percentage points higher than that of last month, achieving a consecutive fall in March.

Specifically, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in all districts of the city has dropped. Among them, Baoan and Futian declined the most. According to the data of Shenzhen Central Plains Research Institute, the average price of Baoan declined 1.1%, Futian declined 1.0%, while Luohu declined the least, 0.4% annually, with an average price of 57553 yuan per square meter.

The industry said that if the new plate to low rate, means that the inventories of developers will accumulate more. It also means that if the next external conditions do not get warmer, the price can only be continued.

The mentality of second-hand housing owners is also beginning to be pessimistic. According to the data of Shenzhen Central Plains Research Institute, the price of second-hand houses in Yinhu luxury housing area and Kuiyong area has been reduced by 13.0% and 12.8% respectively in recent years. Overseas Chinese East, Xinzhou, Henggang Heao, Dapeng, Houhai Bay, Nanshan Center, Longhua Minzhi, Bujinanling area quotations were reduced by more than 6%.

The price of housing is going to drop.

A large developer pointed out that behind the cooling of the market, the expectations of Shenzhens property market have changed and the relationship between supply and demand has reversed.

Unlike other cities, Shenzhens real estate market has influxed a large number of investors in the past few years, accounting for more than 40% of the peak period. Now, most of the investors have withdrawn from the market; just-needed customers are holding a wait-and-see mentality.

The shrinking demand is reflected in the market, which is a sharp decline in turnover. Agents said that the number of visitors to the new house increased in October, but the turnover rate was not high.

According to the statistics of Shenzhen Central Plains Research Center, from October 22 to October 28, four residential projects were listed in Shenzhen, and only about 20% of the first-hand residential projects were opened.

According to the data of Shenzhen municipal Regulatory Commission, in October, the volume of new premises in Shenzhen was only 1835 units, a decrease of 18.37%. In just three months after the New Deal of July 31, the total decline was 49.07%, which was the lowest in nearly half a year. The transfer of 3787 second-hand housing units fell 23.53%, the lowest since nearly 20 months (except February this year).

On the supply side, the push volume will be further increased. Zhongyuan Real Estate said that near the end of the year, in order to achieve performance goals and to recover more funds to deal with uncertainty, developers will choose intensive and discounted delivery in the short term, which will lead to a sharp increase in market supply and price competition in the short term.

He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of American Federation Property, believes that the current policy is still in the digestion period of July 31, adding up the influence of previous policies, the decline in turnover is a big probability event. However, as the power of the policy subsided, some buyers have begun to look at the house again.

Regarding the future trend of Shenzhen property market, He Qianru believes that special housing or other promotional means will appear in the fourth quarter, and the volume of new housing transactions is expected to rebound in November and December.

At present, there are more customers in the secondary market, and there is room for bargaining. He Qianru said that since mid-October, the daily filing volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has gradually increased to more than 200 units, and the trading volume of second-hand housing market is on the rise. It is expected that the filing volume of second-hand housing in the whole city will also rise in November.

Xu Feng, director of development and research of Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, disagrees. She points out that unstable expectations of rising income and exchange rate shocks lead to asset price adjustment. In addition, various interest and air conditioning control policies accelerate the disconnection between income and housing prices. From 2018 to 2019, secondary housing in Shenzhen will be a trend of both volume and price dropping. The recent property market can be used to describe the rapid development of funds in all industries. Jiang Shaojie, general manager of American Union Property Shenhui, also believes that the global housing prices are declining, and Hong Kong is also declining significantly, mainly due to the external environmental impact. Shenzhen housing prices are expected to fall by about 20%. In the past fluctuations, the core areas such as Xiangmihu, Houhai and Overseas Chinese City have been strong, but this time will not be immune to the core areas. House prices will fall by 10%-15%, and remote areas may fall below 20%. Source: twenty-first Century economic report editor: Shi Jianlei _NBJ11331

Xu Feng, director of development and research of Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, disagrees. She points out that unstable expectations of rising income and exchange rate shocks lead to asset price adjustment. In addition, various interest and air conditioning control policies accelerate the disconnection between income and housing prices. From 2018 to 2019, secondary housing in Shenzhen will be a trend of both volume and price dropping.

The recent property market can be used to describe the rapid development of funds in all industries. Jiang Shaojie, general manager of American Union Property Shenhui, also believes that the global housing prices are declining, and Hong Kong is also declining significantly, mainly due to the external environmental impact. Shenzhen housing prices are expected to fall by about 20%. In the past fluctuations, the core areas such as Xiangmihu, Houhai and Overseas Chinese City have been strong, but this time will not be immune to the core areas. House prices will fall by 10%-15%, and remote areas may fall below 20%.