In the first three quarters, the good news that the net income of both companies increased by more than 23% did not stimulate the companys stock price to rise sharply. On the contrary, Maotai, Guizhou Province, opened unexpectedly on October 29 and then dropped sharply on October 30.
As a white horse stock with a market value of more than 1 trillion yuan, the market value of Maotai in Guizhou has shrunk sharply this year. On October 29, the market value of Maotai in Guizhou evaporated by more than 70 billion yuan. Recently, the market value of Maotai is about 700 billion yuan, making it the ninth largest A-share company.
Why did the share price collapse?
For the reason of Maotais recent sharp fall, many insiders have analyzed that the main reason is the slowdown of the third quarter (July-September) revenue and net profit of Maotai in Guizhou.
China Economic Weeklys reporter inquired about Maotais three-quarter report in Guizhou. Although revenue and net profit increased by more than 23% in the first three quarters of this year (January-September), there were obvious signs of a slowdown in the third quarter. The third quarter revenue of Maotai in Guizhou Province was 197.18 billion yuan, an increase of 3.82% compared with the same period last year, while net profit was 9.65 billion yuan, an increase of 3.57% compared with the same period last year, showing a single-digit growth, which is also rare in recent years.
For the reason of this slowdown, some analysts say it may be due to the slowdown of production capacity in Maotai, Guizhou Province, leading to a slowdown in net revenue. Some analysts also say that the net profit base of Maotai revenue in 2017 is too high, although the absolute added value is more, the relative value is still low.
In October 30th, Guizhou Moutai official said that the performance in the first three quarters of 2018 was in line with our companys expectations. It is anticipated that the company will successfully complete the annual plan and is expected to overfulfill it. It will continue to maintain a sustained, stable and healthy development momentum.
In response to the recent sharp drop in liquor stocks, the Pacific Securities Food and Beverage Huang Fusheng team recently said that during the 2008 Changsha Fall Sugar and Wine Festival held from October 25 to 27, feedback from liquor listed companies and distributors began to be cautious about the overall terminal sales situation of the industry and expectations for next year.
Huang Fusheng team believes that, for Maotai, with the downward pressure of the whole economy and the downturn in consumption, high-end liquor consumption will also face pressure in the future, which is an unavoidable reality. This year, high-end liquor has shown that sales are sluggish, and next year there may be pressure on high-end liquor. Moutai is still very nervous at the moment, mainly because of dealers reluctant sale and hoarding of social capital. With the price of Maotai reaching the high level of 1800-2000 yuan, the high price and the falling demand, there may not be tension in Maotai in the future, and the demand will gradually return to rationality.
The collapse of white horse stock means the end of bear market?
Guizhou Maotais fierce performance in the capital market last year attracted many institutional and individual investors to enter. By the end of the three quarter, Moutai Guizhou had a total of 88932 households, a record high in recent years. The collapse also caused many investors to suffer heavy losses.
Recently, some securities firms published research reports on Guizhou Maotais three-quarter report. For example, 13 securities firms such as Merchants Securities believe that the performance of Guizhou Maotai in the first three quarters was lower than expected. Among them, 4 securities firms such as Ping An Securities, Dongguan Securities, China-Thailand Securities and Pacific Securities downgraded Guizhou Maotais rating.
The stock price of Maotai in Guizhou has been declining since it reached a record high of 803.5 yuan per share in June this year, and some institutions have withdrawn from high positions. Flush shows that the number of quarterly newspapers in three is 809, while there are 1054 in half a year, reducing 245.
As for the decrease in the number of funds and other institutions, Danbin, chairman of Shenzhen Oriental Harbour Investment Management Co., Ltd., said, Leading liquor-making enterprises have almost no defects, but growth slows down and valuation changes, without changing the long-term value of enterprises. But fund managers, like individual investors, cant ignore the changes of the business situation regardless of the limitations of the liquidation line. They can only make decisions according to the timing of the situation.
Some are short-sighted and others are bullish. Some of the top ten shareholders in Maotai, Guizhou, have continued to increase their holdings, such as the second largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Settlement Co., Ltd., from 7607.37 million shares in the first quarter to 90.9864 million shares at the end of the second quarter to 95.5619 million shares at the end of the third quarter.
According to some market participants, the overall performance of A shares has been unsatisfactory since this year, which has caused considerable market pressure for previously strong consumer stocks represented by Maotai, Guizhou Province, and obvious selling of profitable institutions.
Yang Delong, former chief economist of Haihai Open Source Fund, believes that Maotai, as a representative of white horse stocks, has risen from below 200 yuan at the beginning of 2016 to 800 yuan at the highest level. There are more profit plates, and once there is a shortfall, there will be a significant decline, which is the main reason for Maotais decline.
Huang Fushengs team also said that the fall in quality consumer stocks also predicted the end of the bear market. From 2012 to 2013, the sharp fall of consumer leading stocks supported by basic factors, such as liquor in 2012, food and medicine stocks in the fourth quarter of 2013, marked the end of the bear market.
Guizhou Moutai day earned 91 million yuan?
Although the three-quarter report of slowing performance triggered stock price fluctuations in Maotai, Guizhou Province, compared with other A-share listed companies, its operating performance is still bright.
Maotai, Guizhou, had a revenue of 52.242 billion yuan in the first three quarters, ranking 91 out of 3555 A-share listed companies that disclosed their three-quarter reports. Its net profit in the first three quarters was 24 billion 734 million yuan, ranking eighteenth.
In a single day calculation, in the first three quarters of this year, 273 days in Guizhou, Moutai day earned 91 million yuan.
As a good money listed company, the monetary capital of Maotai in Guizhou Province in the first three quarters of this year has reached 100.751 billion yuan. Abundant cash has led to more and more interest income in Maotai, Guizhou. In the first three quarters of this year, interest income reached 2.728 billion yuan, a new high in nearly six years.
Over the past five years, the interest income of Maotai has increased year by year. In the first three quarters of this year, the interest income is 2.728 billion yuan, which is close to the whole year of last year. The growth rate is also very high, from 149 million yuan in 2013 to 2.844 billion yuan in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 109%. The proportion of Maotais interest income in total revenue is also increasing, from 0.48% in 2013 to the present. 4.96% in the first three quarters of the year.
Guizhou Maotai Quarterly Report explains that the increase in interest income is mainly due to the increase in business of Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd., a company holding subsidiary. According to its annual report of 2017, Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd. centralized the management of most of the capital of Guizhou Maotai Winery (Group) Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries.
The reporter browsed the total business income of 3555 listed companies in the first three quarters. Maotai, Guizhou, ranked 1174 with interest income of 2.728 billion yuan alone, exceeding the revenue of 2381 listed companies (note: 66.97% of A-share listed companies). However, Guizhou Moutai also faces many troubles in its business lines. According to the official website of Guizhou Maotai Group, the company has 30 wholly-owned subsidiaries, holding companies and 21 companies, which are involved in the industrial fields including liquor, wine, securities, banking, insurance, property, scientific research, tourism, real estate and so on. Li Baofang, Chairman and General Manager of Maotai Group, frankly said that although the development situation of Maotai is good now, there are many subsidiaries in Maotai, which need to be strengthened in risk control, major strategic deployment and decision-making; resources allocation of subsidiaries need to be continuously optimized, non-Prospective subsidiaries should be eliminated, and balanced development of subsidiaries should be promoted. . Source: China Economic Weekly editor: Xun Jianguo _NN7379
The reporter browsed the total business income of 3555 listed companies in the first three quarters. Maotai, Guizhou, ranked 1174 with interest income of 2.728 billion yuan alone, exceeding the revenue of 2381 listed companies (note: 66.97% of A-share listed companies).
However, Guizhou Moutai also faces many troubles in its business lines. According to the official website of Guizhou Maotai Group, the company has 30 wholly-owned subsidiaries, holding companies and 21 companies, which are involved in the industrial fields including liquor, wine, securities, banking, insurance, property, scientific research, tourism, real estate and so on.
Li Baofang, chairman and general manager of Maotai Group, admits that although the development situation of Maotai is good now, there are many subsidiaries in Maotai, which need to be strengthened in risk management and control, major strategic deployment and decision-making. It is also necessary to optimize the resource allocation of subsidiaries, eliminate subsidiaries with no development prospects, and promote the balanced development of subsidiaries.