How do we view the current economic situation? How can fiscal policy and monetary policy go? What do we say about capital market and private enterprises? What signals have been revealed behind the answers at the Politburo meeting, which has become a hot spot of market concern.
Further mention of six stability: steady employment, steady finance, etc.
The meeting stressed that we should implement a positive fiscal policy and a sound monetary policy, do a good job in stabilizing employment, financial stability, foreign trade stability, foreign investment stability, investment stability and expectations, effectively respond to changes in the external economic environment and ensure the smooth operation of the economy.
By contrast, at the Politburo meeting at the end of July, it was pointed out that we should adhere to the active fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy, so as to improve the foresight, flexibility and effectiveness of the policy. Fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment. We should keep the main gate of money supply well and maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity. We should ensure steady employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and steady anticipation.
How does the conference evaluate the current economic situation?
The meeting held that in the first three quarters, the overall economic operation was stable, steady and progressive, and continued to maintain within a reasonable range. Consumption prices of residents have remained basically stable, manufacturing investment has returned to a higher level in recent years, imports and exports have increased rapidly, foreign investment has been used steadily to expand, autumn crops have been harvested, income growth of residents has basically kept pace with economic growth, and new employment in cities and towns has fulfilled the annual target ahead of schedule. The economic structure is continuously optimized. A series of measures to support the development of private economy and promote the healthy development of financial markets have boosted market confidence.
At the same time, the meeting pointed out that the current economic operation has changed steadily, the downward pressure of the economy has increased, some enterprises have more difficulties in operating, and the risks accumulated over a long period of time have been exposed. We should attach great importance to it, enhance our foresight and take timely measures.
The press release of the Politburo meeting at the end of July pointed out that the current economic operation is changing steadily, facing new problems and challenges, and the external environment has changed significantly. We must seize the main contradictions and take targeted measures to solve them.
As for the suggestion that the downward pressure of the economy has increased, New Age Securities Research Daily cited data to point out that export and real estate investment have maintained a high growth rate in the three major demand areas, supporting the economy; the growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined to 3.3% from January to September; and consumption, as the stabilizer of the second quarter economy, has also been put forward. In the three quarter, the rate of final consumer spending on GDP growth dropped from 5.3% to 5%. In October 31st, the PMI of manufacturing industry in October was also near the ups and downs. These data point to the current downward pressure on the economy has increased.
At the same time, the meeting mentioned that the external environment has also undergone profound changes, some policy effects need to be further released, and follow-up policies may be introduced to promote economic development, including tax reduction and fee reduction, increasing support from private enterprises, lenient credit, and promoting consumption upgrading.
Private, small and medium enterprises into keywords
Many references to the development of private economy are mentioned in this press release. For example, since this year, supporting the development of private economy and implementing a series of measures to promote the healthy development of financial markets have boosted market confidence. In addition, the meeting also stressed that we should adhere to thetwo unshakable, promote the common development of multi-ownership economy, and study and solve the difficulties encountered in the development of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.
In addition, the press release also mentioned that some enterprises are more difficult to operate, and the risks accumulated over a long period of time are exposed.
Guoxins macro-research report indicates that the difficulties in the development of private economy have increased and the market has some doubts. The Political Bureau meeting clearly put forward the two unshakable policy, which has a significant effect on stabilizing the development of private economy. It is expected that the latter policy will give support to private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. It will further increase.
According to the Huachuang Securities Report, following the intensive shouting in October, the meeting, including the emphasis on the capital market, was mainly based on the consideration of resolving the current outstanding liquidity crisis of private enterprises and listed companies. Recent financial regulatory authorities and local governments have actively relieved private enterprises, which reflects the focus of this policy on financing. The four quarter is expected to further introduce more active policies for stabilizing private enterprises.
This years Political Bureau economic working meetings seldom mention the capital market. Only in April, they mentioned that we should promote the healthy development of credit, stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market and real estate market, timely follow-up supervision and eliminate hidden dangers. In this meeting, it is proposed that around the reform of capital market, we should strengthen system construction, stimulate market vitality and promote the long-term healthy development of capital market.
According to Guojun Macro Research, this fully reflects the care and expectation of policy management for the capital market, contributes to the development and vitality of the capital market, and has important instructive significance. Generally speaking, in the face of the increasing downward pressure of the economy, based on itself, policy care will be further strengthened, which will contribute to the stable development of Chinas economy and the revitalization of the capital market.
Since this year, the increasing volatility of the capital market has aroused the attention of the policy level, and an important factor of negative market expectations lies in the worry about policy orientation. Chuan Cai securities research report pointed out.
The reporter of Beijing News noticed that on October 30, the SFC issued a statement that it was responding to market concerns by accelerating the following three aspects of work around capital market reform in accordance with the unified deployment of the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council.
First, improve the quality of listed companies. Strengthen the governance of listed companies, standardize information disclosure and improve transparency, create conditions to encourage listed companies to carry out repurchase and merger and acquisition restructuring. Two is to optimize transaction regulation. Reduce transaction resistance and enhance market liquidity. Reduce unnecessary intervention in trading links, let the market have a clear expectation of regulation, and let investors have fair trading opportunities. The three is to encourage value investment. We will give full play to the role of institutional investors such as insurance, social security, various types of securities investment funds and managed products, and guide more incremental medium- and long-term funds to enter the market.
The policy will focus more on implementation.
The meeting pointed out that the current economic situation in China is the result of long-term and short-term, internal and external factors. Chinas economy is changing from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage. The external environment has also undergone profound changes. Some policy effects need to be further released.
At the same time, the meeting demanded that we should improve our style of work and implement it vigorously so that the various policies and measures that have been issued can play a role as soon as possible.
The report of Societe Generale Securities pointed out that several directions mentioned in the meeting, including solving the difficulties encountered by private enterprises (increasing credit for private enterprises, re-lending, etc.), and healthy development of capital market (encouraging insurance funds, securities companies to participate in resolving the risk of equity pledge), have been issued corresponding policies. Therefore, this meeting pointed out that future policies will focus more on implementation.
The Monarchs Macro-Research Daily pointed out that the wording of fiscal and monetary policy has not changed this time, but it is expected that fiscal policy will be more active. The fiscal deficit rate will rise by more than 3% in 2019, leaving room for more than trillions of VAT tax cuts. At the same time, the government will significantly expand the issuance of special debt, or reach 2 trillion yuan, and may join forces. Large state-owned enterprises, such as power grids and communications companies, invest in infrastructure.
The real estate market without name is still the focus of the market.
At the regular meeting of the Politburo in the second quarter, he pointed out, Resolve to solve the problem of the real estate market, insist on implementing measures according to the city, promote the balance of supply and demand, guide expectations reasonably, rectify the market order, and resolutely curb the rise of house prices. We will accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The meeting did not mention.
Guangfa Securities Research Daily pointed out that compared with the July meeting, the lack of real estate expression, it is estimated that the July Politburo meeting proposed policy for the city and supply and demand balance is still the main tone, that is, the policy ring ratio has not changed. In the current economic situation alone, it is unlikely that the real estate industry will be regarded as a counter cyclical tool. Xinhua News Agency stressed 29 days that it will never change. The meeting did not mention that housing prices are no longer the focus of the governments concerns. The national macro research report said. According to the statistical data of the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics in September, it shows that the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities have declined annually, while those of second-tier and third-tier cities have declined annually. The sales prices of commercial housing in first three quarters of first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities have increased year-on-year. The average increase is down compared with the same period last year. Source: Beijing News Editor: Xun Jianguo _NN7379
Guangfa Securities Research Daily pointed out that compared with the July meeting, the lack of real estate expression, it is estimated that the July Politburo meeting proposed policy for the city and supply and demand balance is still the main tone, that is, the policy ring ratio has not changed. In the current economic situation alone, it is unlikely that the real estate industry will be regarded as a counter cyclical tool. Xinhua News Agency stressed 29 days that it will never change.
The meeting did not mention that housing prices are no longer the focus of the governments concerns. The national macro research report said.
According to the statistical data of the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics in September, it shows that the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities have declined annually, while those of second-tier and third-tier cities have declined annually. The sales prices of commercial housing in first three quarters of first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities have increased year-on-year. The average increase is down compared with the same period last year.