Yifu Lin: China has the potential to grow at a rate of 8% in the next 20 years.

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 Yifu Lin: China has the potential to grow at a rate of 8% in the next 20 years.


Lin Yifu, Honorary Dean of Beida Development Institute, made the above remarks at todays China Development Forum 2018 symposium. He believes that China still has very strong economic development potential, and the extent to which this potential can be realized depends on the international economic situation and whether China can further deepen domestic reforms, as well as whether China can cope with the externalities of technological innovation and industrial upgrading and other problems encountered.

In Lin Yifus view, the productivity growth of developed countries or high-income countries is very strong even if only 2% - 3%, and China has the advantage of the latter. Over the past 39 years, Chinas annual growth rate has reached 9.4%. In the future, can China maintain high-speed growth? The answer depends on how many advantages China still has, which depends on the income gap between China and high-income countries. According to the Angus Madison Institute, in 2008, Chinas per capita GDP was 21% of that of the United States, which was the level of Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, Taiwan in 1971 and Korea in 1977. These Asian economies have achieved an average annual GDP growth rate of 8-9% for 20 consecutive years, taking advantage of the superiority of the latter. Therefore, China should have the potential to grow at a rate of 8% over the next 20 years.

Lin further explained that in the new sectors of the Industrial Revolution 4.0, the cycles in these sectors are relatively short, and it is possible to develop new technologies in 12 or 13 months. The development of these technologies depends on human resources, and China has a huge supply of human resources. At the same time, China has shown very strong competitiveness in the new economy.

From this perspective, I am confident. Chinas growth potential is enormous, and such a growth potential comes from the supply side. The extent to which this growth potential is realized depends on the international economic situation and whether China can further deepen its domestic reforms, as well as on whether China can cope with the externalities of technological innovation and industrial upgrading and other problems encountered. In this context, Made-in-China 2025 strategy is precisely to help China cope with externalities, such as Germanys Industrial 4.0 plan, Indias Made-in-India and the United Statess Making America Great Again, Lin said. This series of industrial policies is similar. China can achieve the goal of further releasing its potential to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate, even if it is not as high as 9%, it may maintain a growth rate of more than 6%. China needs such growth. Chinas growth is also good for the world. Source: Beijing News Editor: Xu Meng _NN7485

From this perspective, I am confident. Chinas growth potential is enormous, and such a growth potential comes from the supply side. The extent to which this growth potential is realized depends on the international economic situation and whether China can further deepen its domestic reforms, as well as on whether China can cope with the externalities of technological innovation and industrial upgrading and other problems encountered. In this context, Made-in-China 2025 strategy is precisely to help China cope with externalities, such as Germanys Industrial 4.0 plan, Indias Made-in-India and the United Statess Making America Great Again, Lin said. This series of industrial policies is similar. China can achieve the goal of further releasing its potential to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate, even if it is not as high as 9%, it may maintain a growth rate of more than 6%. China needs such growth. Chinas growth is also good for the world.