Reverse logic bull market? American stock market magic again: non agricultural bad stock index but record high

category:Finance
 Reverse logic bull market? American stock market magic again: non agricultural bad stock index but record high


On December 4 local time, the three major indexes of the US stock market reached a record high at the same time.

The Dow rose 0.83% to 30218.26, the S & P 500 rose 0.88% to 3699.12, and the NASDAQ rose 0.70% to 12464.23, according to wind data.

Data source: wind

Among them, the Dow and the NASDAQ closed at record highs, and the S & P 500 index hit an intraday record high of 3699.20.

Data source: wind

So far this week, the Dow has risen 1.03%, the S & P 500 has risen 1.37%, and the NASDAQ has risen 2.12%.

Well known energy stocks rose collectively, with ExxonMobil up 3.68%, Chevron up 3.92%, ConocoPhillips up 7.45%, Schlumberger up 6.3% and occidental up 13.42%.

Popular Chinese stocks were mixed, with Alibaba up 0.08%, Jingdong down 1.27% and Baidu down 0.12%. Several high-profile new energy vehicles fell in general. Among them, Weilai automobile fell 5.12%, Xiaopeng automobile fell 4.59%, and ideal automobile fell 5.51%.

Data source: wind

Behind the inverse logic rise:

The market looks forward to bad things turn into good things

Data released by the U.S. Department of labor on the same day showed that the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 245000 in November, a fifth consecutive month of decline, far lower than the 469000 expected by the market and the revised previous value of 638000; the unemployment rate in November was 6.7%, the market expected to be 6.8%, and the previous value was 6.9%.

In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the United States has not improved. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has reached more than 14 million 290 thousand cases in the US at 16:25 on the 4 th Eastern time (16:25 05:25 Beijing time), and 14297251 cases have been diagnosed, and the number of deaths has exceeded 278 thousand, reaching 278083 cases, according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the US.

Insiders pointed out that novel coronavirus pneumonia began to be suspected by Wall Street. Since the US non farm employment data in November were far less than expected, the adverse effects of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and other adverse factors on the US job market and economic recovery threatened the us to accelerate the introduction of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in the near future. The prospect of bad things turning into good things may have contributed to the rise of US stocks.

On monetary policy, fed observers said the weak economy may prompt the fed to revise its bond purchase plan at its December meeting. Michael feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, expects recent events to add to the reason for the fed to take action at its December meeting, most likely by lengthening the average maturity of the bonds they buy.

In addition, members of the Federal Reserve have also reiterated the need to increase financial policy support.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Evans said on Friday that the latest employment report was disappointing, that the current employment growth rate was slowing too seriously, partly because of the epidemic, and he called on Congress to take more fiscal rescue measures.

Kashkari, chairman of Minneapolis Federal Reserve, also said that the 6.7% unemployment rate is misleading. The current actual unemployment rate in the United States is about 10%, which is equivalent to the peak during the great depression. With the outbreak of the epidemic, the economy will fall into a downturn; December and January and February next year will be the economic difficult period. It is hoped that Congress will introduce a new round of fiscal measures to help small businesses and families.

According to media reports, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at a news conference in Washington on Friday that the situation is moving toward a compromise on the fiscal stimulus plan. Democratic leaders favor negotiating stimulus bills based on a bipartisan proposal that has also attracted increasing interest from Republicans, raising the possibility of an agreement by the end of the year. Economic conditions, rapid progress in vaccine development and marketing, and pressure from moderates in the party may influence the next move of the Democratic Party and make it accept a smaller plan. In addition, biontech said it would produce 50 million doses of the new crown vaccine with its partner Pfizer this year, a statement that eased concerns that they might not be able to meet production targets. Source: China Securities Journal Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

According to media reports, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at a news conference in Washington on Friday that the situation is moving toward a compromise on the fiscal stimulus plan.

Democratic leaders favor negotiating stimulus bills based on a bipartisan proposal that has also attracted increasing interest from Republicans, raising the possibility of an agreement by the end of the year. Economic conditions, rapid progress in vaccine development and marketing, and pressure from moderates in the party may influence the next move of the Democratic Party and make it accept a smaller plan.

In addition, biontech said it would produce 50 million doses of the new crown vaccine with its partner Pfizer this year, a statement that eased concerns that they might not be able to meet production targets.