The impact of credit debt crisis: failure of bond issuance or cancellation of new high

 The impact of credit debt crisis: failure of bond issuance or cancellation of new high

However, since December 1, the daily reverse repo operation of the central bank is 10-20 billion, which is very small. However, the maturity of reverse repurchase is relatively large, basically around 100 billion. Wind data shows that the central banks open market reverse repurchase operation was 20 billion on December 1 and 10 billion on the other days, with a total investment of 50 billion. In the four trading days since December, the maturity of reverse repurchase was 390 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal fund was 340 billion yuan.

If we consider the 200 billion MLF investment and 150 billion reverse repurchase operation on Monday, and the 40 billion reverse repurchase expiration on the same day, the net withdrawal fund of the central bank on this Friday is only 30 billion yuan. It can be seen that the small amount of investment in early December this week, large amount of withdrawal, mainly to hedge the large amount of investment at the end of November on Monday. On the whole, the scale of net withdrawal funds of the central bank this week is not large, maintaining a good stability.

Market interest rate rebounds

At the end of November, with the central banks large MLF operation to rescue liquidity, most types of reverse repurchase of exchange treasury bonds fell and interest rates fell. Since December, however, interest rates have rebounded. According to wind data, gc001 of Shanghai Stock Exchange rose sharply in the last half hour on December 2, reaching an annualized interest rate of 7.8%, a new high in recent two years. The annualized r-001 interest rate of Shenzhen Stock Exchange also rose rapidly, but the rising range was slightly smaller, with the highest rate of 4.5%.

Then on December 3, interest rates fell across the board. On December 4, the annualized interest rate of one-day varieties in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges remained at a low level, but the annualized interest rates of 28 day varieties covering the end of the month were all higher. Among them, gc028 of Shanghai Stock Exchange and r-028 of Shenzhen Stock Exchange are above 3.1%, significantly higher than the annualized interest rate of earlier period.

Liquidity tight?

Sun Binbin team of Tianfeng Securities believes that seasonal liquidity tension may occur in December at the end of the year and January before the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the central bank will still accurately put MLF and Omo for hedging, and the overall liquidity will maintain a tight balance rather than a simple tightening.

Huaan Securities said that it is expected that the liquidity in December will be slightly loose compared with that in November, and the central bank will adhere to the appropriate aggregate policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the overall liquidity is relatively loose.

In terms of segmentation, the supply pressure of bonds in the money market decreased in December, which made it difficult to form a substantial squeeze out of the capital demand; from several major factors affecting inter-bank liquidity, the pressure of cash outflow from the banking system in circulation was large near the end of the year; the change of foreign exchange funds was not significant, which had little impact on the liquidity of capital; the fiscal expenditure at the end of the year was seasonally high, and the progress of the central banks fiscal deposit expenditure or Accelerate, thus releasing more liquidity into the banking system.

Some companies are expected to be downgraded

On November 10, Yongmei Group announced that due to the shortage of working capital, the company failed to raise sufficient funds on schedule and 20 Yongmei scp003 constituted a substantial breach of contract.

This also triggered a crisis in the credit bond market, many of which continued to fall in November. In addition, due to the investigation of Yongmei, many rating companies are under cautious consideration and are planning to lower the rating of some bond issuers. An executive of a banking financial institution said frankly that this is the reason why many bond issuers credit rating has been lowered or concerned recently.

The scale of bond suspension reached a record high

Affected by the credit crisis, 459 bonds have been delayed, failed or cancelled in less than a month since November 10, with a planned issuance scale of 183.89 billion yuan. Compared with the previous monthly delay, issuance failure or cancellation, the scale of issuance is larger. If we look at the whole month, 562 stocks were postponed, failed or cancelled in November, and the planned issuance scale was 210.44 billion, a new high in the year. It can be seen that the crisis still has a certain impact on the issuance of market bonds.

Source: Wind Information Editor: Wang Xiaowu_ NF