Driven by liquor stocks and other food and beverage sectors, the Shanghai Composite Index rose strongly, closing slightly up 0.86%, and the three major indexes were collectively red.
It is worth noting that, near the end of the year, the northbound capital represented by smart capital starts the crazy buy buy buy mode again. On the same day, the net purchase of Beishang capital exceeded 3 billion yuan, and since this week, the scale of Beishang capitals purchase of funds has exceeded 24.5 billion yuan.
Foreign investment banks and Chinese securities companies are both singing more than A-share market in the spring. Whether to buy or store ammunition has become an important issue for many investors.
Liquor stocks soared 200 billion
Suffered a few days of downturn in the market index, once again relying on popular liquor stocks to gather a strong popularity, A-share buy drunk market is back again.
On December 4, in the overall market shock, the main line is not clear pattern, liquor stocks once again become a leading vanguard. In the morning of that day, the liquor index opened high and went high, and continued to strengthen in the afternoon, and the index once rose more than 5%.
By the end of the day, the liquor index rose more than 4%. The market value of the board soared nearly 200 billion. All 18 constituent stocks in the board were red, none of them fell, and the transaction amount of the whole day exceeded 34 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that, since this year, although liquor shares have been adjusted, it is still one of the most fund focused sectors in the whole year. The data shows that the liquor index has risen by more than 10% in the past month, and more than 90% in the past year, while the CSI 300 index has only risen by more than 31% in the same period.
Driven by liquor stocks, the market has shown obvious signs of turning red.
On the same day, the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 742.5 billion yuan, over 1919 stocks were in red, 64 stocks were trading limit stocks, and the market sentiment index was 5.5.
Stock king once returned to 1800 yuan
300 billion new giant to be born
On the day of December 4, Guizhou Maotai, the king of a shares, took the lead in a sharp rise. Near the end of trading, Guizhou Maotai shares returned to 1800 yuan, up 2.92%.
By the end of the day, Guizhou Maotai still rose more than 2.52% and its market value exceeded 2.2 trillion. On that day, the main net inflow exceeded 2.6 billion, and the main inflow exceeded 6.6 billion, becoming a hot spot for gold absorption.
From the news, the rising demand for high-end liquor represented by Maotai and the approaching of the new years holiday have become the important reasons why Maotai has always been sought after.
According to the Caihua news agency, in December, in order to meet the demand of more consumers for liquor, a number of channel merchants intensively announced a new round of Feitian Maotai liquor sales plan.
The official account of official account of Golden Eagle International Group shows that since December 1st, Golden Eagle will supply 100 thousand bottles of 53 degree flying Moutai, all sold at the price of 1499 yuan / bottle. Huarun also announced its official WeChat public number, 13 days in December 7th -12, 41 city designated 161 home run Wanjia store and 150 thousand bottles of flying star Moutai liquor, which is the second recent volume of the Huarun Wanjia in December 1st. u3002
According to the industry analysis, although Maotai announced the channel direct sales volume in the fourth quarter, the impact on the market price is not significant. The market price of Feitian Maotai liquor not only did not continue to decline, but rebounded and rose nearly 200 yuan per bottle in two short days, and the market price broke through the 3000 yuan mark again.
Other market participants believe that when the main line of the A-share market is not clear and hot stocks rotate, liquor stocks, as a defense plate, are often sought after by funds, especially when the Spring Festival peak season is coming, the demand for liquor will rise and the industry prosperity will further rise.
Many organizations suggested that liquor market could be actively arranged across the year. China Merchants Securities said that the liquor sector exceeded market expectations, led the market upward, food returned to normal growth, stock prices rose and fell in different ways, and companies damaged by the epidemic situation gradually recovered. The third quarter report is the key node of the whole years performance and the next years valuation outlook. It is suggested to lay out the liquor market across the year. Liquor valuation is still in the promotion channel, and the performance is gradually improved.
CITIC also said that in the long run, the liquor industry is still the best track. The trend of demand for the liquor industry will not change, and the market share will not change. The optimization trend of product structure under consumption upgrading will not change. The expectation of better performance of liquor enterprises in the next four to five quarters will not change. Firmly optimistic about the head of liquor enterprises, continue to recommend a good competitive pattern.
Super white horse takes off again
In addition to liquor leaders, a large number of big white horse stocks dominated by the food and beverage industry also seemed to quickly return to blood, becoming the main force of the market leading the day.
From the panel view on December 4, the food index in the theme industry changed significantly, opening high all day, and the index rose by more than 3%. By the end of the day, the trading volume of the plate exceeded 25.6 billion yuan.
Within the plate, Ketuo biological trading limit, youyou food, richen shares, Zhongju Hi Tech Trading closed.
Super Baima shares Haitian flavor industry rose more than 6%, with a market value of over 580 billion.
Golden dragon fish rose nearly 3% and its market value exceeded 380 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that there were obvious changes in the consumer stock camp in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day. On December 4, consumer stocks rose in the afternoon, modern animal husbandry rose by more than 10%, and Master Kang, Yihai international, Mengniu Dairy and other stocks rose.
In the industrys view, although consumer stocks have experienced a wave of gains, it does not mean the end of the consumer stock market.
At the recent annual investment strategy meeting, Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, found that the economic growth of the next year showed a trend of high before and low after. Among them, the top high of the economic recovery in the first and second quarter of 2021 has generally formed an expectation in November 2020. The follow-up needs to focus on whether the top high of the economy in the first and second quarters of next year is higher than, in line with, or lower than expected, This will affect the rhythm of the market in the first half of 2021. As for the certainty of investors expectation of economic recovery is rising, which is beneficial to the stock market in the first half of 2021.
Earlier, Huang Yanming said: the momentum of economic recovery in the first half of 2021 mainly comes from consumption and export, which are the core driving force for the choice of industries and sectors in the first half of 2021.
Demon shares suffered a heavy setback
However, liquor market return at the same time, the previous hot stocks also began to appear obvious adjustment, A-share market style electric fan appeared again, which also makes many funds feel confused.
December 4 that day, many even the board of demon stocks have a heap of drop limit. For example, 7 even board doubled, OLED demon shares rainbow shares in the early trading flash collapse limit. The night before yesterday, rainbow shares announced that two major shareholders holding more than 5% of shares successively reduced their holdings, with a market value of more than 30.8 billion yuan.
At the same time, the four linked board of Chinese enterprises, blue and Dai technology has been down limit, Xiaokang shares, Zhengzhou coal power and other popular stocks also encountered the limit.
Rendong holdings, the worst Zhuang stock in a row, has dropped by about 60% from its high level, with a market value of only 14.5 billion yuan.
On the news surface, a suggestive announcement about the change of the companys equity and the change of controlling shareholder and actual controller once again pushed Rendong holdings into the air of public opinion. Beijing Haidian state-owned assets withdrawal, no longer as the actual controller, may make the market worried, and then began to ferment, the stock price fell continuously. And before the state-owned assets into the owners, but also become an important factor in the stock price.
In addition, through the cyclical tuyere soaring financial stocks also ushered in a significant adjustment. On December 4, banks, insurance, real estate, construction, coal and other plates fell sharply.
Among the bank stocks, the Bank of Xiamen, which rose sharply before, fell by more than 7%, while Zijin bank, Bank of Xian and Bank of Zhengzhou fell more than 5%.
Foreign investment banks sing more about emerging markets
Although the style change is too fast, and super white horses such as Baijiu stocks have regained popularity, many demon stocks have fallen sharply. Under the background of unclear main line, many large institutional funds have already arranged to buy in advance, hoping to obtain the opportunity of next year in advance.
And from the layout of positions, northbound funds back to food, medicine and other defensive plate signs are obvious.
Wind found through statistical analysis that, from the perspective of the industry, on December 3, the industries with the highest net purchase amount of northbound funds: medicine, food and beverage, new energy of power equipment, non bank finance, banks and automobiles; after several days of silence, medicine and food and beverage ranked the top of the list of northbound fund positions, and the net purchase amount was relatively large, which showed that there was at least some difference in northbound funds When some institutions start to re execute defensive investment strategies.
On December 4, among the top 10 active stocks of Beishang capital, Guizhou Maotai had a turnover of over 1.6 billion, ranking first.
In addition to institutional funds, the leverage funds represented by the two financing funds have also been significantly enlarged recently. According to statistics, since December, the balance between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges has reached 1.6 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that many foreign investment banks have been actively promoting emerging markets recently. J.P. Morgan recently said that emerging market stocks, after being ignored by investors this year, are expected to rise as much as 20% in 2021 to become a shining star market in the world. Meanwhile, emerging market bond yields could reach 5-6%.
As the global economy begins to recover from the second quarter of next year, emerging markets will outperform the rest of the world, Goldman said in a recent report. Data released by the International Finance Association (IIF) showed that emerging markets, including stocks and bonds, had a net inflow of $76.5 billion in November, a record high.
Institutions are optimistic about Spring Market
How to arrange the funds next year?
With the change of market style and frequent capital movements in the north, many investors are perplexed about whether to buy or hoard ammunition and wait for the spring market. For the spring market, the institutions have expressed their views.
Zhang Xia strategy team of China Merchants Securities predicts that a shares will be in a typical recovery period from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first half of 2021, which is characterized by fundamental driving. According to the stage deduction of the global economic cycle and Chinas credit cycle, the non-financial listed companies profits in the fourth quarter of 2020 will continue the improvement trend since the second quarter, and will reach the cyclical high point of this round of profits in the first quarter of 2021.
According to Wang Hanfengs strategic team of CICC, in the next few years, driven by the inclination of residents asset allocation to financial assets and financial asset allocation to institutions, public funds will become an important channel for residents to allocate to A-share market. The new scale of public funds raised in 2021 may be roughly the same as this year, bringing about 600 billion to 700 billion yuan of incremental funds for the equity market.
Interestingly, different institutions have different views on the foreign investment that has driven the pace of the A-share market. Wang Delun, strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, believes that, considering the attractive investment value and cost performance ratio of a shares in the future, it is conservatively estimated that in the next five years, it is expected to see an average annual inflow of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan of foreign capital, and the proportion of foreign shareholding in the circulation market value of a shares is expected to continue to increase by about 3%. Fan Jituo, chief securities strategist of the new era, believes that relatively speaking, insurance institutions and foreign investors pay more attention to valuation. Since this year, the scale of northward capital inflow has gradually slowed down, mainly due to the rapid rise in valuation, which leads to the decline of cost performance. For example, ah premium index has risen from 120-130 last year to 140-150 at present. If the valuation of A-share continues to rise next year, it is not ruled out that the scale of foreign investment purchase will further decrease, or even become a small net outflow. However, taking into account the long-term value of RMB assets and the need for decentralized allocation of foreign capital, the scale of foreign capital outflow is not expected to be large. Source: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of China fund daily_ NF5619
Interestingly, different institutions have different views on the foreign investment that has driven the pace of the A-share market. Wang Delun, strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, believes that, considering the attractive investment value and cost performance ratio of a shares in the future, it is conservatively estimated that in the next five years, it is expected to see an average annual inflow of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan of foreign capital, and the proportion of foreign shareholding in the circulation market value of a shares is expected to continue to increase by about 3%.