Driven by liquor stocks and other food and beverage sectors, the Shanghai Composite Index rose strongly, closing slightly up 0.86%, and the three major indexes were collectively red.
It is worth noting that, near the end of the year, the northbound capital represented by smart capital starts the crazy buy buy buy mode again. On the same day, the net purchase of Beishang capital exceeded 3 billion yuan, and since this week, the scale of Beishang capitals purchase of funds has exceeded 24.5 billion yuan.
Foreign investment banks and Chinese securities companies are both singing more than A-share market in the spring. Whether to buy or store ammunition has become an important issue for many investors.
Liquor stocks soared 200 billion
The Shanghai index turns red in the afternoon
Suffered a few days of downturn in the market index, once again relying on popular liquor stocks to gather a strong popularity, A-share buy drunk market is back again.
On December 4, in the overall market shock, the main line is not clear pattern, liquor stocks once again become a leading vanguard. In the morning of that day, the liquor index opened high and went high, and continued to strengthen in the afternoon, and the index once rose more than 5%.
By the end of the day, the liquor index rose more than 4%. The market value of the board soared nearly 200 billion. All 18 constituent stocks in the board were red, none of them fell, and the transaction amount of the whole day exceeded 34 billion yuan.
Among them, Laobaigan liquor and jinzhongjiu were trading, Jiugui Liquor was up nearly 8%, and hot liquor stocks such as St shede and highland barley wine rose by more than 5%.
It is worth noting that, since this year, although liquor shares have been adjusted, it is still one of the most fund focused sectors in the whole year. The data shows that the liquor index has risen by more than 10% in the past month, and more than 90% in the past year, while the CSI 300 index has only risen by more than 31% in the same period.
Driven by liquor stocks, the market has shown obvious signs of turning red.
On December 4, the Shanghai index rose 0.07% from green in the morning to red in the afternoon, and the index closed at 3444.58. At the same time, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index rose slightly by 0.4% and 0.68% respectively, and the all a index rose slightly by 0.27%.
Within the plate, in addition to liquor index, lithium index, beverage manufacturing, rare metals and other concept index all led the rise.
On the same day, the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 742.5 billion yuan, over 1919 stocks were in red, 64 stocks were trading limit stocks, and the market sentiment index was 5.5.
Stock king once returned to 1800 yuan
From the perspective of liquor market, it is often the leading stocks that drive the changes in the market, and this time is no exception.
By the end of the day, Guizhou Maotai still rose more than 2.52% and its market value exceeded 2.2 trillion. On that day, the main net inflow exceeded 2.6 billion, and the main inflow exceeded 6.6 billion, becoming a hot spot for gold absorption.
From the news, the rising demand for high-end liquor represented by Maotai and the approaching of the new years holiday have become the important reasons why Maotai has always been sought after.
The official account of official account of Golden Eagle International Group shows that since December 1st, Golden Eagle will supply 100 thousand bottles of 53 degree flying Moutai, all sold at the price of 1499 yuan / bottle. Huarun also announced its official WeChat public number, 13 days in December 7th -12, 41 city designated 161 home run Wanjia store and 150 thousand bottles of flying star Moutai liquor, which is the second recent volume of the Huarun Wanjia in December 1st. u3002
According to the industry analysis, although Maotai announced the channel direct sales volume in the fourth quarter, the impact on the market price is not significant. The market price of Feitian Maotai liquor not only did not continue to decline, but rebounded and rose nearly 200 yuan per bottle in two short days, and the market price broke through the 3000 yuan mark again.
Other market participants believe that when the main line of the A-share market is not clear and hot stocks rotate, liquor stocks, as a defense plate, are often sought after by funds, especially when the Spring Festival peak season is coming, the demand for liquor will rise and the industry prosperity will further rise.
Many organizations suggested that liquor market could be actively arranged across the year. China Merchants Securities said that the liquor sector exceeded market expectations, led the market upward, food returned to normal growth, stock prices rose and fell in different ways, and companies damaged by the epidemic situation gradually recovered. The third quarter report is the key node of the whole years performance and the next years valuation outlook. It is suggested to lay out the liquor market across the year. Liquor valuation is still in the promotion channel, and the performance is gradually improved.
CITIC also said that in the long run, the liquor industry is still the best track. The trend of demand for the liquor industry will not change, and the market share will not change. The optimization trend of product structure under consumption upgrading will not change. The expectation of better performance of liquor enterprises in the next four to five quarters will not change. Firmly optimistic about the head of liquor enterprises, continue to recommend a good competitive pattern.
Super white horse takes off again
Consumer stocks camp bull stocks soared
From the panel view on December 4, the food index in the theme industry changed significantly, opening high all day, and the index rose by more than 3%. By the end of the day, the trading volume of the plate exceeded 25.6 billion yuan.
Within the plate, Ketuo biological trading limit, youyou food, richen shares, Zhongju Hi Tech Trading closed.
Super Baima shares Haitian flavor industry rose more than 6%, with a market value of over 580 billion.
Golden dragon fish rose nearly 3% and its market value exceeded 380 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that there were obvious changes in the consumer stock camp in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day. On December 4, consumer stocks rose in the afternoon, modern animal husbandry rose by more than 10%, and Master Kang, Yihai international, Mengniu Dairy and other stocks rose.
In the industrys view, although consumer stocks have experienced a wave of gains, it does not mean the end of the consumer stock market.
At the recent annual investment strategy meeting, Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, found that the economic growth of the next year showed a trend of high before and low after. Among them, the top high of the economic recovery in the first and second quarter of 2021 has generally formed an expectation in November 2020. The follow-up needs to focus on whether the top high of the economy in the first and second quarters of next year is higher than, in line with, or lower than expected, This will affect the rhythm of the market in the first half of 2021. As for the certainty of investors expectation of economic recovery is rising, which is beneficial to the stock market in the first half of 2021.
Demon shares suffered a heavy setback
Down limit of popular bank stocks
However, liquor market return at the same time, the previous hot stocks also began to appear obvious adjustment, A-share market style electric fan appeared again, which also makes many funds feel confused.
December 4 that day, many even the board of demon stocks have a heap of drop limit. For example, 7 even board doubled, OLED demon shares rainbow shares in the early trading flash collapse limit. The night before yesterday, rainbow shares announced that two major shareholders holding more than 5% of shares successively reduced their holdings, with a market value of more than 30.8 billion yuan.
Rendong holdings, the worst Zhuang stock in a row, has dropped by about 60% from its high level, with a market value of only 14.5 billion yuan.
In addition, through the cyclical tuyere soaring financial stocks also ushered in a significant adjustment. On December 4, banks, insurance, real estate, construction, coal and other plates fell sharply.
Sold 24.5 billion yuan in a week
Foreign investment banks sing more about emerging markets
Although the style change is too fast, and super white horses such as Baijiu stocks have regained popularity, many demon stocks have fallen sharply. Under the background of unclear main line, many large institutional funds have already arranged to buy in advance, hoping to obtain the opportunity of next year in advance.
Beishang capital, represented by smart capital, has changed its selling trend in the past. At this time of a share market, Beishang capitals continuous buying mode is familiar.
On December 4, Beishang capital bought more than 3.7 billion yuan. Liquor stocks showed differentiation, Guizhou Maotai bought 1.129 billion yuan and Wuliangye sold 280 million yuan. Dongfang fortune, Midea Group and Hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. respectively obtained 296 million yuan, 289 million yuan and 202 million yuan respectively. Vanke A and China Merchants Bank were sold more than 200 million yuan. According to the data, since this week, Beishang capital has bought more than 24.5 billion yuan.
And from the layout of positions, northbound funds back to food, medicine and other defensive plate signs are obvious.
Wind found through statistical analysis that, from the perspective of the industry, on December 3, the industries with the highest net purchase amount of northbound funds: medicine, food and beverage, new energy of power equipment, non bank finance, banks and automobiles; after several days of silence, medicine and food and beverage ranked the top of the list of northbound fund positions, and the net purchase amount was relatively large, which showed that there was at least some difference in northbound funds When some institutions start to re execute defensive investment strategies.
As the global economy begins to recover from the second quarter of next year, emerging markets will outperform the rest of the world, Goldman said in a recent report. Data released by the International Finance Association (IIF) showed that emerging markets, including stocks and bonds, had a net inflow of $76.5 billion in November, a record high.
On the afternoon of December 4, the foreign exchange market also ushered in good news. At about 14:30 on the same day, offshore RMB broke the 6.52 barrier against the US dollar, continuing to reach a new high since June 2018.
Institutions are optimistic about Spring Market
How to arrange the funds next year?
With the change of market style and frequent capital movements in the north, many investors are perplexed about whether to buy or hoard ammunition and wait for the spring market. For the spring market, the institutions have expressed their views.
Zhang Xia strategy team of China Merchants Securities predicts that a shares will be in a typical recovery period from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first half of 2021, which is characterized by fundamental driving. According to the stage deduction of the global economic cycle and Chinas credit cycle, the non-financial listed companies profits in the fourth quarter of 2020 will continue the improvement trend since the second quarter, and will reach the cyclical high point of this round of profits in the first quarter of 2021.
According to Wang Hanfengs strategic team of CICC, in the next few years, driven by the inclination of residents asset allocation to financial assets and financial asset allocation to institutions, public funds will become an important channel for residents to allocate to A-share market. The new scale of public funds raised in 2021 may be roughly the same as this year, bringing about 600 billion to 700 billion yuan of incremental funds for the equity market.
However, some institutions believe that the future index upward space is limited, and the game market is greater than the trend opportunity. Dongfang Securities said that from the current position, the index may still have upward space, but the space is relatively limited, and the risk of downward fluctuation is increasing. At present, the price performance ratio of heavy position game is not high. In terms of industry configuration, pro cyclical is still the main line of this round of market. It is suggested that along the main line of economic recovery, low-level stagflation varieties such as cinema, civil aviation transportation, textile and clothing should be appropriately arranged.
Interestingly, different institutions have different views on the foreign investment that has driven the pace of the A-share market. Wang Delun, strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, believes that, considering the attractive investment value and cost performance ratio of a shares in the future, it is conservatively estimated that in the next five years, it is expected to see an average annual inflow of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan of foreign capital, and the proportion of foreign shareholding in the circulation market value of a shares is expected to continue to increase by about 3%. Fan Jituo, chief securities strategist of the new era, believes that relatively speaking, insurance institutions and foreign investors pay more attention to valuation. Since this year, the scale of northward capital inflow has gradually slowed down, mainly due to the rapid rise in valuation, which leads to the decline of cost performance. For example, ah premium index has risen from 120-130 last year to 140-150 at present. If the valuation of A-share continues to rise next year, it is not ruled out that the scale of foreign investment purchase will further decrease, or even become a small net outflow. However, taking into account the long-term value of RMB assets and the need for decentralized allocation of foreign capital, the scale of foreign capital outflow is not expected to be large. Source: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of China fund daily_ NF5619
Interestingly, different institutions have different views on the foreign investment that has driven the pace of the A-share market. Wang Delun, strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, believes that, considering the attractive investment value and cost performance ratio of a shares in the future, it is conservatively estimated that in the next five years, it is expected to see an average annual inflow of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan of foreign capital, and the proportion of foreign shareholding in the circulation market value of a shares is expected to continue to increase by about 3%.
Fan Jituo, chief securities strategist of the new era, believes that relatively speaking, insurance institutions and foreign investors pay more attention to valuation. Since this year, the scale of northward capital inflow has gradually slowed down, mainly due to the rapid rise in valuation, which leads to the decline of cost performance. For example, ah premium index has risen from 120-130 last year to 140-150 at present. If the valuation of A-share continues to rise next year, it is not ruled out that the scale of foreign investment purchase will further decrease, or even become a small net outflow. However, taking into account the long-term value of RMB assets and the need for decentralized allocation of foreign capital, the scale of foreign capital outflow is not expected to be large.