Huang Haizhou, general manager of Minmetals securities
This is the first large-scale strategy meeting held by Minmetals Securities Research Institute since its establishment. At the meeting, Huang Haizhou, general manager and Deputy Secretary of the Party committee of Minmetals securities, said in his speech that research on pricing is the core of the ability of securities companies under the registration system, and is the necessary basis for domestic securities companies to truly compete with international investment banks.
2021 optimistic about new military materials and new energy
Ge Jun said that in 2021, on the whole, he is optimistic about new military materials (superalloy + titanium), new energy vehicles and energy storage (rare earth + lithium). The short-term trend of base metal is upward, and the long-term box vibration. Precious metals continue to be bullish on the long-term trend.
Ge Jun, general manager assistant and director of Research Institute of Minmetals securities
Ge Jun is particularly optimistic about the investment opportunities of new military materials. He believes that the accelerated upgrading of military equipment will bring about a sustained and rapid growth in the demand for superalloys and the accelerated volume of military titanium materials. The stronger the production enterprises in the superalloy industry are, the greater the capacity gap will be; Fushun Special Steel, steel research Gaona, and Western superconductor have expanded their production, and the industry leaders fully enjoy the dividend of both quantity and price. From 2020 to 2025, military titanium will become the core engine of titanium consumption market, and high-end production capacity will determine enterprise profits.
For the investment opportunities of new energy automobile industry chain in 2021, sun Jingwen, assistant director of Minmetals Securities Research Institute, summarized it as great era, great track breeds great enterprises. He said that new energy vehicles are a very deep industrial chain, and also an industry with broad growth space, market orientation and manufacturing and consumption attributes, and are regarded as an important strategic emerging industry in the world. In such a blue ocean industry, global industries are more positive sum game than zero sum game.
Specifically, sun Jingwen believes that the upstream lithium raw materials will enter a new cycle, and the strategic importance of high-quality lithium resources will reappear; the demand for upstream cobalt raw materials will be warmer, and the supply and demand will continue to be tightly balanced; the midstream positive electrode will usher in double opportunities of cost inflation and cutting into the global supply chain in 2021; the downstream power battery leading capacity circle will be improved and the ecological radiation will be expanded, and the global market will start to accelerate growth in 2021 New energy vehicle terminals will have global market resonance, new forces will dance with traditional giants, and excellent products will begin to emerge.
Industry experts judge the development trend of industry
At the strategy meeting, Minmetals also invited many senior personages in their respective fields to prospect the lithium industry, gold mining industry, tungsten industry and rare earth industry.
Li Liangbin, chairman of Ganfeng lithium industry, shared his forecast for the development of lithium industry in the next five years. He believes that in the next five years, lepidolite and Chinas salt lake resources will reach the development bottleneck, and the annual total output will not exceed 200000 tons of LCE. To enter the lithium industry, it will be constrained by resources and production and management team. The industry competition is expected to slow down and will not be as fierce as that from 2018 to 2020.
Li Liangbin judged that by 2025, the global supply and demand of lithium will reach 1 million tons. At that time, the supply will be weak, and the demand will be strong, which will lead to a second wave of short supply situation, and the industry prosperity will explode again.
For the rare earth industry, Zhong Kexiang thinks that there are differences between light rare earth and light rare earth, light rare earth supply exceeds demand, and medium and heavy rare earth supply is tight. In the medium and long term, the price of light rare earth is under great pressure. There are abundant light rare earth resources. With the increasing exploitation of light rare earth resources at home and abroad, the price of light rare earth will be restrained; the supply of medium and heavy rare earth is difficult to grow significantly, the strategic value is becoming more prominent, the price level is expected to rise, and the current situation that the medium and heavy rare earth processing is difficult to make profit will be reversed.