What is the signal significance of this meeting? What are the important contents of Han Zhengs speech? What policy intentions are conveyed? Lets look at the key interpretation:
It is clear that the short-term market regulation will not be relaxed
On December 3, Han, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, was holding a forum in the Ministry of housing and urban rural development. He stressed that we should thoroughly study and implement the spirit of general secretary Xi Jinpings important speeches and instructions, implement the spirit of the party in the fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, unswervingly implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, plan the housing work in the 14th Five-Year period, strengthen the building of housing security system, and effectively expand the supply of affordable housing.
Han Zheng said that since the implementation of the long-term real estate mechanism, all departments in various localities have conscientiously implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, closely focused on the regulatory objectives of stabilizing land prices, house prices and stabilizing expectations, adhered to the implementation of policies in accordance with the city, consolidated the main responsibility of the city, and strengthened the financial regulation and control of real estate, and achieved remarkable results in real estate work. We should firmly adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. We should not regard real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term. We should always tighten the string of regulation and control of the real estate market. We should proceed from reality and constantly improve the policy toolbox to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
In this regard, Yang Hongxu, vice president of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Times Securities Dealers China reporter that the real estate forum was held at this node mainly because the contents of real estate mentioned in the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee and the 14th five year plan were implemented, and the real estate aspect during the 14th five year plan was emphasized and reiterated Policy guidelines, including regulatory policies and housing security.
Among them, the policy of real estate regulation is further set, such as no speculation on housing and housing , no stimulation in the short term, and tight control string, which means that the policy is not loose in the short term. Yang Hongxu told the Chinese reporter of securities times and securities companies.
It is worth noting that Han Zheng also proposed that the policy toolbox should be continuously improved from the reality.
In response, Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, said in an interview with the securities times and securities dealers China reporter that the improvement of the policy toolbox means that we should summarize some measures taken by the government, under what circumstances and what measures should be taken to stabilize the market and control the expectation, as well as to ensure the stability of transaction volume and price, and then the price will not be affected This demand is still relatively high, which requires the government to have a very high art of regulation and control.
On November 3, Xinhua News Agency officially released the proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goal of 2035. Among them, the statement on real estate regulation is as follows: adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, carry out rent and purchase simultaneously, and implement policies according to the city, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. We should effectively increase the supply of affordable housing, improve the income distribution mechanism of land transfer, explore and support the use of collective construction land to build rental housing according to the plan, improve the long-term rental housing policy, and expand the supply of affordable rental housing.
On November 17, Wang Menghui, Minister of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, wrote an article to interpret the implementation of urban renewal action proposed in the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal of 2035, which mentioned that the long-term mechanism scheme for real estate should be implemented steadily. We should implement urban policies, implement the main responsibility of the city, improve the policy coordination mechanism, provincial, ministerial and municipal linkage mechanism, monitoring and early warning mechanism, market supervision mechanism and public opinion guidance mechanism, establish a prudent management system for real estate finance, comprehensively carry out the evaluation and evaluation of real estate market regulation, strive to stabilize land price, house price and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Strengthening the housing security system in the medium term
At the meeting, Han also proposed to strengthen the top-level design of housing development during the 14th Five Year Plan period, study the two systems of housing market and housing security, and give better play to the guiding role of planning. Improve relevant laws and policies, strengthen daily supervision, and promote the healthy development of the housing rental market.
Han Zheng stressed that we should focus on affordable rental housing, improve the basic system and supporting policies, and strengthen the construction of the housing security system. We should properly handle the relationship between basic security and non basic security, do our best and do what we can, and strive to solve the housing problems of the disadvantaged groups and new citizens. To deal with the relationship between the government and the market, we should not only strengthen the role of government protection, but also actively use market-oriented means. We should properly handle the relationship between the central and local governments, adhere to the principle of one size fits all, encourage and guide the urban government to adjust measures to local conditions, improve the way of housing security, and implement the main responsibility of the city.
In this regard, Yang Hongxu told the Chinese reporter of securities times and securities companies that in the medium term, the construction of housing system should be carried out, and the two aspects of security and marketization should be organically combined. As a deputy prime minister in charge of real estate, I went to the Ministry of housing and urban rural development to hold such a forum, which further conveyed to the outside world that the central government is very concerned about the real estate market, regulatory policies and housing security. He said.
Li Yujia also believed that the meeting focused on housing security, to solve the housing security of low-income groups and the housing needs of new citizens, including talent housing. Han Zheng proposed to deal with the relationship between security and non security, that is, to ensure housing or the government should provide for the bottom, and should spend financial money, while talent housing should follow the path of marketization, not financial money, more It is necessary to play the role of the market to supply commercial housing. In addition to affordable housing, it refers to affordable rental housing.
According to the Five-Year Plan and the Five-Year Plan to improve the old housing security system, it is proposed to speed up the implementation of the Five-Year Plan to improve the old housing security system Housing supply. In order to solve the housing difficulties of new citizens, we should vigorously develop rental housing, improve the long-term rental housing policy, expand the supply of affordable rental housing with small and medium-sized households and low rent, and explore and support the use of collective construction land to construct rental housing according to the plan.
Industry insiders pointed out that the reason for the prevalence of strike new in Shenzhen is related to the price limit policy. The price limit of new houses leads to the price inversion of second-hand houses, creating a wealth effect of pie in the sky. Many people do not have house tickets to buy house tickets for others to hold first, and some buyers sell their houses to strike new. Taking Shenzhen China Resources City Runxi as an example, the average price of the new building is about 132000 square meters, while the average price of the second-hand houses in the surrounding China Resources City is more than 180000 yuan, with a price difference of 40000-50000 yuan, which means that if the house type of the smallest 100 square meters of the building is calculated, the minimum profit can be 5 million yuan. The huge price difference between the new housing market and the surrounding second-hand housing market is the fundamental reason for the existence of this kind of new housing fever.
In response to the situation of real estate speculation in Shenzhen China Resources City Runxi phase I project, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development said in response to the media that the competent government departments attach great importance to it and are in the process of investigation and handling. Once violations are found, they will be dealt with seriously according to law and regulations. In view of the current situation that the prices of first-hand and second-hand houses are hanging upside down and the media reports that they hold and speculate on behalf of others, the government departments are studying comprehensive control policies to resolutely crack down on speculation and speculation in the market.
According to the latest data of Shell Research Institute, after the 715 new deal in Shenzhen, there is a 729 new policy supplement, and the overall regulation and control is strict. In the process of curbing the rapid rise of house prices, new houses stimulate the main force of rigid demand customers to enter the market and the market is hot. From January to November, a total of 39222 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen, covering an area of 3.9 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2%.
Not only Shenzhen, Shanghai, the recent new housing market is also hot. According to media statistics, as of the end of October, there have been 12 rounds of lottery for sales of first-hand houses in Shanghai this year, and 65 times for projects with more than 100% recognition rate. The thousand people shake project in November is the yanheng splendid century of Zhoukang District in Pudong. It has the largest volume of market entry. All 340 sets of houses for sale have been launched. The supply volume is about 38000 square meters, and the average price on record is 66000 yuan / m2. 1077 groups of actual effective fund raising are recognized, and the subscription rate is 317%, which is the highest in the month.
For example, Guan Qingyou, President and chief economist of the Institute of financial research, wrote in a micro headline on December 3 that his colleagues personal experience of buying a house in Shanghai this year was: the lottery, from summer to winter, was finally shaken for the fifth time. When it was his turn to choose, there were only three sets, so the second floor did not dare to choose. Although it will take three days to pay the down payment, he feels lucky. You know, he bought the first day CD-ROM in Shanghai in December. The average price is 6.6W outside the outer ring road, and the subscription rate is as high as 518%. This means that more than five people grab a house and the competition is fierce. In contrast to this, the average opening price of the first period at the beginning of the year was 6.1w, and the call rate was only 19%. It can be seen that not only Shenzhen but also Shanghais new houses are really popular. The main reason is that the prices are hanging upside down too seriously, and there are high taxes and fees. I heard him say that he took a fancy to the second-hand house a few days ago. The landlord bought it about 100W in 2010. Now it is 690w listed, and it needs to pay more than 30 W value-added tax. In addition, commission and deed tax, it is almost 10% of the cost. Therefore, it has become a kind of compulsion and is relatively wise to launch a new house choice.
In addition, many second tier cities have maintained a high level of new housing market this year. According to the latest data of Shell Research Institute, the transaction area of Chengdu, Nanjing, Dongguan, Xiamen and Yangzhou increased by more than 10% from January to November, and the market remained hot. Among them, Dongguan and Xiamen grew faster, more than 20% and 40% respectively. Although Dongguans regulation and control was upgraded, the supply side continued to push the plate intensively in November, driving the rapid growth of trading volume. In November, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in Xiamen increased by 38% and 187% on a year-on-year basis, respectively. It is expected to maintain a high heat by the end of the year.