It is common sense to have market pre research and capacity planning before making cars. But planning out of gravity makes a joke. According to the information previously disclosed by Evergrande, the annual production capacity of the first phase is planned to be 1 million vehicles in 2 to 3 years, and the annual production capacity will exceed 5 million vehicles in the next 10 years. What do these numbers mean? You might as well do an arithmetic problem first. In 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is 1.206 million, which is expected to be the same as last year, while the capacity of phase I of Evergrande automobile is almost equal to the total sales of new energy vehicles in China. Is it fierce? Surprised or not? Are you surprised? Although the latest national new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) does not make clear requirements on the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to new vehicle sales in 2030, the industry generally estimates that 10 million vehicles are already quite optimistic. In other words, Evergrande will own half. How likely is that? It is not surprising that such slogan style planning is questioned.
As for the 15 word idea of buy, buy, buy, combine, circle, circle, big, good, good and good, the 15 word idea of car building shocked the auto industry from the moment it was released. According to Evergrandes explanation, this is to exchange money for time to accelerate the speed of car building. The problem is that the automobile industry is not a real estate industry, but a high-tech industry. The development experience of Chinas automobile industry in the past few decades shows that most of the technologies that money can exchange are unimportant or eliminated by multinational automobile enterprises, while the key core technologies can not be bought or exchanged by money. Enterprises need to accumulate gradually in product development and market competition, which is a process of accumulation and development. Obviously, Evergrande is still floating on the surface of the tide of car building.
As a real estate tycoon, cross-border into the field of car manufacturing, which is easy to arouse peoples imagination about whether it is in the name of car making, to encircle the land and make money. However, Evergrande not only has no taboo, but also seems to have a deep understanding of it. According to media reports, Evergrande automobile has acquired a large amount of land in many places, a considerable part of which belongs to residential or commercial land. Among the 10 senior management teams above the vice president level of China Evergrande new energy automobile group, only one of them is from LETV, and all of them are from tourism and real estate background. It is difficult to make people believe that Evergrande is really making cars?
Frankly speaking, the author is in favor of cross-border car building by new forces, including Evergrande. We should know that after a century of development, the pattern and interests of the automobile industry have been solidified. In the face of the new trend of electrification, intellectualization and networking, traditional car companies are not enthusiastic because of their fixed thinking, technological path dependence and existing assets. Many even instinctively hope that traditional technologies will have a longer life cycle, so as to make more profits on the track in the past. If there is no more new forces to join in and stir up the situation, it is difficult to stimulate the vitality of industrial innovation.
We should also see that from the difficult birth of FAWs liberation, the joint venture of Beijing jeep and the rise of private auto enterprises represented by Geely, Chinas auto industry has always been a catch-up role on the traditional track, and has failed to change the fate of following. However, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are booming, which makes it possible to change. In particular, Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng have brought the concept, speed, efficiency and passion of the Internet into the automobile industry, making the Chinese automobile industry more hopeful than it is today.
Sorting out the market value of global automobile enterprises, 10 years ago, Chinas automobile enterprises ranked 15-20. Now, Weilai and BYD are both in the top five, surpassing the traditional car companies General Motors and Honda, while Xiaopeng automobile is pushing ahead of Ford, Hyundai, great wall, Geely and ideal, and has completely squeezed out the old Renault and Kias. It may be the first time in history that Chinas top auto companies can row with global auto giants. Although this is only the performance of the capital market, it is a clear and important signal. This indicates that as long as we maintain strategic determination and continue to make efforts on this new track of intelligent electric vehicles, Chinas automobile industry may become the new global leader.
However, it should be emphasized that all of the above-mentioned new forces are concentrating on making cars, rather than seizing the land and making money in the name of car making. Automobile is a long-term industry that relies on strength competition. Speculation will not only make bad cars, but also become a laughing stock. LETV is a lesson in the past.
The national development and Reform Commission investigates the investment of new energy vehicles in various regions and finds out the related projects of Evergrande and Baoneng
The notice requires the national development and Reform Commission to provide project information, including the project situation, construction progress and annual production of new pure electric vehicles approved and filed since 2015, the production and operation of new energy vehicle investment projects of existing automobile enterprises and the filing of new energy vehicle projects under construction from 2019 to 2010. Article 3 requires all localities to provide local pure electric vehicle project planning and investment promotion, which clearly requires all localities to report in detail the new energy vehicle and parts projects invested and constructed by Hengda, Baoneng and other enterprises since 2017, including land occupation, construction content, project progress, completed investment, etc.
Another car company insider, who does not want to be named, believes that this move, in addition to finding out, also sends a signal to prevent the current overcapacity of new energy vehicles.
According to the notice, this years new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the plan) issued by the general office of the State Council clearly proposes to strengthen supervision in the process and after the event, consolidate the local main responsibility, and curb the chaos such as blindly embarking on new energy vehicle manufacturing projects. This is also to strengthen investment supervision and promote the high-quality development of new energy vehicle industry u3002
Source: Economic Daily editor in charge: Chen Hequn_ NB12679