In this crisis, Wanda film will still be the main investment, the main control of the film file in 2021, the strategic adjustment seems to have been carried out quietly.
Which film and television companies may be st?
Financial, trading, regulatory and other aspects may lead to listed companies being St. Since the third quarter report has been disclosed, it can provide a basis for sorting out the financial perspective.
According to the new financial delisting regulations of gem, if the audited net profit of a listed company in the latest accounting year (or after retroactive remodeling) is negative and the operating income is less than 100 million yuan, the delisting risk warning (* st) can be given. The reporter combed the two indicators of net profit and operating income. Huayi Brothers and Tangde, which have been losing money continuously from 2018 to 2019, have escaped the disaster due to the operating revenue of more than 100 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2020. In accordance with the old rules of delisting gem, losses for three consecutive years will be directly delisted.
Data source: wind and CFA
According to the st and delisting rules of the main board and the small and medium-sized board, listed companies will be subject to delisting risk warning (* st) if they lose money for two consecutive years. According to the statistics of net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2019 and 2020, the reporter found that there were three film and television companies with losses, Wanda film, huanrui century and Beijing Culture (Lugang culture is not included due to the change of its main business). It is worth noting that these three are the leading companies in the film and television industry.
In addition, there are * ST Zhongnan and * ST contemporaries, which are likely to lose money for three consecutive years, and may face the risk of suspension of listing.
Data source: compiled by Financial Association
How likely is it to be st? Focus on policy changes and corporate operations
Only from the profits of last year and the first three quarters of this year, we can not judge that the above companies will be St.
Before that, the CSRC has issued relevant policies on special treatment under special circumstances. For example, on April 7, the CSRC issued an announcement, stipulating that some companies seriously affected by the epidemic can disclose their annual reports no later than June 30.
On May 15, the relevant departments of China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in response to a reporters question that the target assets of the implemented merger and reorganization projects which are still in the performance commitment period are indeed affected by the epidemic situation. In principle, the performance commitment period can be extended or the commitment content can be adjusted appropriately.
In November, Wanda also called on investors not to draw a conclusion too early, as if they had expectations for the policy. Wanda film said: the film industry has been seriously impacted by the epidemic, which is a force majeure factor. Since this year, the regulatory authorities and the exchanges of the two cities have also issued a number of policies to support enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. As an enterprise seriously affected by the epidemic, the company will actively strive for and strive to safeguard the rights and interests of shareholders. It is still too early to draw a conclusion.
In addition to the external factors at the policy level, listed companies also have self-help measures. Generally, compliance measures include improving the main business situation, restructuring, including the introduction of high-quality resources, divestiture of invalid assets or companies with serious losses. Chen Leibo, senior partner of Jingshi (Shanghai) law firm, told the financial press.
With the alleviation of the epidemic situation and the return to work of cinemas, the above three film and television companies have the objective conditions to improve the main business situation. Can they turn losses into profits in the fourth quarter and avoid St?
The cultural situation in Beijing is relatively optimistic.
According to the third quarter report, Beijing culture has a revenue of 13.081 million and a loss of 117 million in the first three quarters of 2020. However, the National Day film my hometown and I, which is dominated by Beijing culture, won 2.8 billion box office. According to the box office announcement of Beijing Culture on October 9, my hometown and I was released for 8 days, and the box office revenue of Beijing culture was about 80-100 million. According to this ratio, my hometown and I can bring at least 120-150 million box office revenue to Beijing culture. It is also possible for net profit to become positive.
In the first three quarters of the century, huanrui had a revenue of 17.1888 million yuan and a loss of 148 million yuan. From under the Royal Guards at the beginning of the year to the colored glaze in the middle of the year, in 2020, huanrui century has seen a lot of hot money, but the performance is still at a loss. The companys explanation for the change of performance in the third quarter report forecast is that the decrease in revenue is due to the decrease of some broadcast programs and the impact of project cycle. In 2020, more than one series will go online, and the increase of related marketing expenses will lead to the decrease of net profit. However, in the past few years, huanrui was deeply mired in many factors, such as the financial fraud left by history, the departure of first-line artists, the squeeze of ancient costume drama inventory under the restriction of ancient culture, the high amount of business receipts and bad debts.
At present, whether Wanda film, the leading company, will be the focus of the market. In the first three quarters of 2020, the companys revenue was 3.214 billion and the loss was 2.015 billion. Referring to the profit of 312 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2019, it is unlikely to make up for the nearly 2 billion loss in the first three quarters of 2020.
In addition to improving the operating conditions, listed companies also choose ways such as equity transfer and asset sales to turn losses into profits through non recurring profits and losses. However, it also needs to consider the companys development plan and the long-term value of equity and assets. The judgment of compliance focuses on whether the sale of assets is material . A lawyer of a foreign-funded law firm told CFA, there is no problem for general asset sales to meet the disclosure requirements; major asset sales will face more stringent disclosure requirements, requirements on the nature of assets, identification of related parties or not, and insider trading regulations.
What will happen if the leading Wanda movie is St? Good card in next year
If there is no relevant exemption policy in the end, Wanda films possibility of being st next year is the largest among the three companies mentioned above, which is also the most concerned by the market.
But st is only an objective description of the situation of Listed Companies in a certain period of time according to the existing system. Is delisting risk comprehensive judged by two years profitability?
Recently, following the pilot registration system on the gem, the key institutional reforms such as deepening the registration system and delisting are also continuing. Sun nianrui, deputy director of the supervision department of listed companies under the CSRC, said that the next step would be to optimize the delisting criteria and change the single continuous loss delisting index into the combined financial delisting index. The overall idea is not to simply investigate the profitability of enterprises, but to pay attention to the ability of sustainable operation at the same time.
Take a close look at the performance of Wanda films in the past two years. In 2019, if the provision for impairment of assets such as goodwill is deducted by 5.909 billion yuan, the net profit will still be 1.141 billion yuan. In 2020, the loss was caused by the closure of cinemas and the failure of the important reserve film Tang Tan 3 to be released within the year.
The film and television industry is a heavy cycle and product industry. A single blockbuster movie may have a great impact on the companys performance. There are four box office peak seasons in a year: Spring Festival, summer vacation, national day and new years Eve. People close to Wanda film told the financial press that Tang Tan 3 from the content point of view, is more suitable for the Spring Festival file of family happy situation. It can be seen that Wanda film attaches great importance to Tang Tan Tan 3 and is also very cautious in file setting.
The market has also delivered a more optimistic attitude - on November 9, a Wanda film fixed increase landing announcement was disclosed. In the list of the largest fixed increase shareholders in the history of the film and television industry, some well-known investment institutions such as Gao Yi asset, Swiss bank and CITIC Securities have appeared.
According to the announcement, Wanda film plans to use 2.027 billion yuan of raised funds for 162 new cinema projects, and continue to consolidate the leading position of domestic cinema. In fact, the epidemic is also accelerating the reshuffle and liquidation of the industry. Small film and television companies may close down or be acquired, and the industry concentration is further improved. According to the data of cats eye professional edition, Wanda cinemas market share in shadow casting was 15.87% in November, which was 13.49% in November last year.
In addition, in terms of content production, according to Wandas 2021-2022 film list, in addition to two super IP - Chinatown detective 3 and dragon search 2, there are also 16 reserve and preparatory films such as mistakenly killing 2, ghost blowing sky star, folding city, want to see you, I dont want to be friends with you, as well as several TV series.
It is worth noting that submarine column: the ring of fire is also called the national day of the peoples Republic of China due to technical reasons, which was changed to January 8, 2021. Wanda also said that ghost blowing the lamp is planned to be released in the summer of 2021.
In the crisis of wearing a hat, Wanda will shift all its main investment and control films to next year, which seems to be a strategic adjustment.
Indeed, it is almost impossible to turn a loss into a profit in 2020. Its better to keep a good hand until next year, so that even if you still wear a hat and take off your hat in the near future.
With the acceleration of the epidemic situation, the industry reshuffle bonus and many blockbusters remaining in next year, the capital market still has expectations for Wanda films.
Big or big. A securities company media chief analyst to the Associated Press reporter is such a sigh.