From the position ratio of private placement, the average position ratio of subjective long strategic private equity fund has reached 81%.
According to the survey of private placement network, the number of private funds with medium and high position ratio is maintained in the majority, with 94.63% of the private funds with positions of 50% or more, of which 20.81% are currently in full positions; the number of private placements with more than 80% positions accounts for 48.99%, an increase of 4.23 percentage points compared with 44.76% of the previous month. The number of private placements with a position ratio of 50% to 80% (excluding 80%) accounted for 24.83%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points compared with 27.97% of the previous month. However, the number of private placements with a position ratio of less than 50% decreased, and the number of private placements with medium to high position ratio increased. It can be seen that the confidence of private fund managers in the market has gradually stabilized.
For the market in December, from the perspective of trend expectation confidence index, the proportion of fund managers who are optimistic, neutral and pessimistic fluctuates slightly, and the number of extremely optimistic private equity managers increases. From the increase and decrease of position indicators, the proportion of fund managers with unchanged positions increased slightly compared with last month, while the proportion of large increase positions and private placement increased positions decreased slightly compared with last month. This shows that the current position of private placement continues to maintain a high level. At the same time, under the condition of market shock and differentiation, most managers plan to maintain their positions unchanged.
In December, the expected confidence index of A-share market trend was 129.87, up 2.6% month on month. Among them, 7.38% of fund managers are extremely optimistic, 3.88% higher than that of last month, 48.32% are optimistic, 40.94% are neutral, and 3.36% are not optimistic about the market in December.
In the position increase and decrease plan of December, the index value of the A-share market position increase and decrease investment plan is 106.38, as high as 75.17% of fund managers choose to keep their existing positions unchanged, while 18.12% of fund managers intend to increase their positions or substantially increase their positions. The proportion of unchanged positions continues to increase compared with last month.
Technology and consumption will be the main line
Beijing Heju investment told the daily economic news that recently, the pro cyclical sector led by banks has ushered in a significant valuation repair market. The core logic behind this is that the domestic economy continues to repair, driving the profit growth of the whole financial and cyclical sectors to rise sharply year-on-year. Funds from the earlier period of the larger increase, higher valuation of the plate withdrawal, flow to relatively low valuation, benefit from the pro cyclical repair logic plate. The current Pro cyclical market is in the middle of the market, and the comparative advantage is expected to last until the first quarter of next year.
In the medium and long term, the valuation premium of cycle plate has been difficult to appear since 2015. The logic behind it is that the recovery of cycle is short logic, and the motivation for further improvement of valuation is limited. From the guidance of the fourteenth five year plan, the policy will continue to promote scientific and technological innovation and consumption upgrading. Science and technology and consumption are the main line in the medium and long term. Starting from December, the possibility of capital distribution of science and technology and consumption is high. The high profit growth rate of Pro cyclical industry may continue to the first quarter of 2021, with the opening of cross year market. We are inclined to be optimistic about the opportunities of science and technology and growth sectors at the beginning of next year, especially in the strategic emerging industries oriented by policies, such as military industry, media, electronics, communications and so on, which already have certain valuation advantages.
Xu Qiongna, general manager of Bamai investment, told reporters that securities companies are also in the pro cyclical sector. This years performance has been clearly reflected. In the follow-up, there are institutional dividends to be fermented to encourage the establishment of aircraft carrier level securities companies and a comprehensive registration system. Therefore, it is logical to support the sustainable growth in the medium and long term. However, due to the strong demonstration effect of the big finance every time it rises, a big financial movement is formed This kind of group phenomenon in which the index moves.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of daily economic news_ NBJ9607