Specifically, 248 listed companies are expected to be happy (174 have disclosed specific data), of which 90 are expected to have a year-on-year growth rate of more than double; 119 listed companies are expected to reduce, 127 listed companies are in advance of loss, of which 46 companies are expected to reduce their net profit by more than 50% year-on-year (95 companies have disclosed specific data).
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told reporters from China first finance and economics that during the disclosure period of annual report performance forecast, companies and industries with good performance expectations can focus on it, because now it is the fundamentals that determine the market, and companies with bright performance or performance growth exceeding expectations may have better stock price performance.
Performance exceeded expectations, cycle stocks performed better
On December 2, Lear chemical released the performance forecast for 2020, which predicted that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was about 560 million yuan to 622 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80% - 100%.
In 2020, despite the impact of Xinguan epidemic, the company will do everything possible to ensure the supply of raw materials, fully control the cost, and effectively stabilize production and sales. Affected by the increase in sales volume and sales price of some products, the companys performance will rise year-on-year. The company said when explaining the reasons for the growth.
Luchangs situation is similar to that of Lear. On December 1, the company released a revised notice of performance forecast, which is expected to turn losses into profits in 2020, with a profit of 70 million to 105 million yuan, and a loss of 352 million yuan in the same period of last year. The company is expected to report a net loss of 50 million yuan in 2020.
As for the reasons for the big reversal of performance, Luchang technology said that after the approval of the general meeting of shareholders, it had written off the payable patent license fees of US $240.277 billion (equivalent to about RMB 158 million) accrued in previous years. This write off will correspondingly increase the net profit of 2020, which is non recurring profit and loss.
It is worth noting that on November 13, just before the amendment of the performance forecast, Luchang technology announced that it would replace the audit institution in 2020 from Lixin Zhonglian accounting firm (special general partnership) to Dahua accounting firm (special general partnership). At the same time, the exchange also issued a letter of inquiry to the company.
Yutong technology also disclosed the performance forecast for 2020 on December 1. The company expects to make a profit of 1.097 billion to 1.202 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 5% - 15%, and its operating income is expected to increase by 15% - 20%. The company said that the reason for the performance growth is that the company has made achievements in market development and the capacity gradually released in the preliminary layout, and the implementation of refined operation management has achieved results.
Yutong shares fell 9.69% on November 30, hitting a new low of 26.18 yuan per share in more than five months. However, its share price rose more than 5% on the day of Earnings Disclosure, and rose more than 2% in the two trading days since.
From the industries of the above three companies, Lear chemical belongs to the chemical industry, Luchang technology belongs to the automotive industry, and Yutong technology belongs to the light industry manufacturing industry. These three industries have one thing in common, they are cyclical industries.
At the end of the year, the financial and economic recovery cycle and Yang Delong told reporters that the recovery is related to good performance.
Listed companies 2020 performance expectations are mixed
Among the 611 listed companies that have disclosed the performance information in 2020 in A-share market, 112 companies have increased in advance, 12 companies have continued to make profits, 53 companies have slightly increased, 71 companies have turned losses, 50 companies have forecast reduction, 54 companies have continued losses, 73 companies have first loss, 69 companies have slightly decreased and 117 companies have uncertainty.
Among the listed companies, 174 companies disclosed the specific performance forecast data. 139 companies are expected to have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. Among them, 126 companies are expected to have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%, 90 companies are expected to have a year-on-year growth rate of more than one time, 26 companies are expected to have a year-on-year increase of more than 2 times, and 10 companies are expected to have a year-on-year increase of more than 5 times.
Tianci materials (002709. SZ), Daan gene (002030. SZ) and Haoxiang you (002582. SZ) increased their net profits by more than 10 times. Among them, Tianci materials predicts that the net profit in 2020 will be about 650 million to 750 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3882.84% ~ 4495.59%; Daan gene predicts that the net profit in 2020 will be about 2 billion ~ 2.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2069.63% ~ 2286.59%; it is good to expect that the net profit in 2020 will be about 2.135 billion ~ 2.230 billion yuan, with an increase of 1008.35% ~ 1057.67%.
However, there are also eight companies that continue to make profits, which are expected to decline year-on-year in 2020. For example, Hongbo shares (002229. SZ) estimates that the net profit is about 24764100 yuan ~ 37146100 yuan, with a range of - 29.87% ~ 5.20%; riyueming (300906. SZ) predicts that the net profit is about 46.15 million yuan ~ 65.06 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of - 25.85% ~ 4.53%.
Among the listed companies with poor performance expectations, 95 listed companies have disclosed specific performance forecast data. Among them, 58 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline in net profit, of which 58 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline of more than 30%, 46 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, 24 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline of more than one time, 13 companies are expected to have a year-on-year decline in net profits of more than 10 times.
Most of the companies whose net profit is expected to decline by a large margin over the same period of last year are those expected to lose money for the first time. Among them, Xianfeng Holdings (002141. SZ) predicts that the net profit loss in 2020 will be about 390 million to 460 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4970.49% - 5844.69%; ST soling (002766. SZ) predicts that the net profit loss in 2020 will be about 200 million to 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3271.53% - 4064.42%.
Of course, there are also nine listed companies that continue to lose money, which are expected to narrow this year. For example, innovative medical (002173. SZ) predicted that the net profit loss was about 38 million yuan to 55 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 95.22% - 96.70%; and * ST Qinshang (002638. SZ) predicted that the net profit loss was about 16 million yuan to 35 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.61% - 95.71%.
For this years and next years performance expectations, Xun Yugen said, comprehensively, it is expected that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit will continue to rise to the second quarter to the third quarter of 2021, ROE (return on net assets) will continue to rise to the fourth quarter of 2021, the predicted net profit growth rate of all a shares will be 2% year-on-year in 2020, and the cumulative growth rate of net profit of all a shares attributable to the parent company will be 15% in 2021.
Overall, next years macro liquidity will not be as loose as this years, but micro liquidity will still be abundant. In the first three quarters of this year, the net inflow of funds has been close to 1.3 trillion, and we expect 1.5 trillion for the whole year. In 2021, the allocation of residents assets will be further shifted to the equity market, and the annual net capital inflow will be more than 2 trillion yuan. He said.