The market has finally come back. In the face of the recent market situation, Zhang Lai (pseudonym), a fund manager who has been specializing in investment in the science and technology sector, breathed a sigh of relief. The fund products managed by Zhang Lai have been withdrawn by no small margin since October, and the hot market of Pro cyclical and bank plates has also made him envious.
Zhang Lai does not deny the pressure brought by the company and channels. In particular, the new customers brought about by the continuous marketing in the third quarter have basically invested in the high points, and they have a greater reaction to the withdrawal of their net worth. The channel Department of the company also hopes that the fund managers can come out and communicate with investors. This kind of communication is not much pressure for him. The real pressure is how to explain the current market opportunities to investors. Procyclicality and finance are really not what Im good at. My focus is on technology and consumption, he said. However, the performance of the funds technology sector after entering the fourth quarter is not satisfactory. In communication, my view is that the pro cyclical and financial sectors can participate in stages, but the real growth opportunities will continue to lead the market.
And in another fund managers view, the outstanding performance of its heavy positions also made him feel different pressure. Financial stocks have their own characteristics. The recent rapid deduction is easy to overdraft the future space. Although there are a lot of bank stocks in the heavy positions, the pressure of stopping profit of some stocks rises abruptly. The fund manager said.
Heavy positions have mixed performances
With less than a month left in 2020, the year-end ranking war of funds starts again. In recent years, the ranking of public funds and other factors, such as the size of public funds and the long-term ranking of the industry, have been paid more and more attention in recent years. In the final sprint stage, the funds heavy positions may become the key to determine the funds final ranking, and it is also expected to become one of the highlights of the year-end market.
Wind data shows that in the middle of October, ABC Huili industry 4.0 once became the active equity fund with the highest annual income. As of October 15, the return rate of the fund has reached 110.56% this year, and that of GF high-end manufacturing a has been 106.74% since this year. However, due to the strong performance in the near future of Midea Group (89.600, - 0.31, - 0.34%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (25.240, - 0.78, - 3.00%) and other home appliances and chemical industry stocks, GF high-end manufacturing a occupies the first annual income of active equity fund. As of December 2, Guangfas high-end manufacturing a has achieved a return of 128.35% since this year. The three funds managed by Zhao Yi, namely Agricultural Bank of China Huili industry 4.0, Agricultural Bank of China new energy theme, and Agricultural Bank of China research and selection fund, have achieved 113.23%, 110.33% and 108.99% respectively this year, ranking second to fourth. In addition, since the strategic transformation of ICBC Credit Suisse, the yield is 106.26%, followed closely.
According to the funds third quarter report, by the end of the third quarter, Guizhou Maotai (1749.000,10.99,0.63%), Wuliangye (261.630,1.08,0.41%), Lixun precision (51.270, - 0.33, - 0.64%), Longji shares (69.430, - 0.29, - 0.42%), China central immune (194.930, - 0.59, - 0.30%), Midea Group, Mindray medical (344.990,6.99,2.07%), Ningde times (245.990,2.30), 94%), Luzhou Laojiao (186.380,2.47,1.34%), SF Holdings (80.890,0.91,1.14%). Among the active equity funds with high performance ranking, they also hold a number of fund group heavy positions. For example, Midea Group, Longji shares, Lixun precision and other companies all appear in the list of heavy positions of GF high-end manufacturing a and ABC Huili industry 4.0.
Since the beginning of this year, the stock price of the funds heavy positions has performed well, which has contributed a lot to the growth of the net value of the fund. However, with the improvement of valuation and the switching of hot spots in the market, the recent performance of fund heavy positions is different. Among them, Midea Group had a better performance, with a cumulative increase of 15.06% since November; liquor stocks also generally rose to varying degrees, with Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao increasing by 4.73%, 7.07% and 8.05% respectively over the same period.
More flowers are expected in the future
As for the rapid rotation of market hot spots, fund institutions believe that such a situation is expected to continue, whether it is pro cyclical or technology, consumer sectors, there is hope that opportunities will emerge at the turn of the year.
According to the analysis of the macro strategy Department of GDF, since the second half of the year, with the recovery of economic data, the cyclical style in the A-share market has shown obvious excess returns relative to the growth style. Pro cyclical market has become the market consensus expectations, how to select the industry in Pro cyclical has become the focus of attention. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the industries where the growth rate of finished product inventory is significantly down and the current level of finished product inventory is relatively low. It is expected that the price of such industries will rise after the inventory drops to a certain extent. In addition, from the perspective of the logic of the inventory cycle, this kind of industry may be experiencing the passive de inventory stage under the background of economic recovery, and the later period may enter the active replenishment stage. The industries in line with the above characteristics include chemical industry, coal industry and non-ferrous metal industry; the inventory of beverage manufacturing and textile clothing in consumer industry is better, which is also worthy of attention.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NBJ9607