Researchers talk about Shenzhen property market: lack of housing is essentially the result of speculation

category:Finance
 Researchers talk about Shenzhen property market: lack of housing is essentially the result of speculation


First of all, the essence of Shenzhens property market is not supply, but leverage speculation. To be honest, if we do not control illegal speculation, illegal leverage, and all kinds of funds, including banks, private placement, small loans and guarantees, to compete in Shenzhen. There are several, more than a dozen or even dozens of new real estate in the supply side of Shenzhens new housing market. On the contrary, because of the price limit of new houses, the arbitrage effect has been created artificially Will make the property market more hot, rising expectations stronger.

Secondly, the real estate speculation of Shenzhen residents is no longer the demand of maintaining and increasing the value of assets, but the appeal of increasing leverage arbitrage. It is often heard that there is no place for funds to be deposited, the value of deposit banks and the loss of investment in the stock market, so they have to buy houses. In fact, real gold and silver with their own money speculation, very few. Most of the time, speculators are thinking about how to get money out of the bank. At present, the market interest rate is lower than the mortgage interest rate, and the unprecedented interest rate inversion has aroused the boom of leveraged real estate speculation once the new house price limit is met.

Thirdly, the so-called space narrowing problem in Shenzhen is essentially a pseudo proposition. In recent years, Shenzhens industries have been upgraded rapidly. A large number of general industries have been vacated and enterprises have moved out. A lot of space has been released. There is enough industrial space. Can we say that Shenzhen lacks space if we look at the high vacancy rate of office buildings? Shenzhens lack of housing is essentially the result of speculation. As the property market continues to stir up, everyone wants to speculate in real estate and buy more units. If the speculation is stopped, the housing problem will be solved.

Finally, Shenzhens property market regulation, if you want to achieve multiple goals, both to And then And In the hope of moving in the middle, the signal to the market is continue to do more. Todays Shenzhen is no longer the special zone of yesterday. There are high expectations from all levels. It is necessary to demonstrate growth and transformation, peoples livelihood and security, and even more to demonstrate urban governance, including property market regulation. At the 40th anniversary meeting a month ago, leaders expected Shenzhen to establish a sense of full cycle management, accelerate the modernization of urban governance system and governance capacity, and focus on scientific, refined and intelligent efforts.

At present, although Shenzhen has done a lot of effective work on the supply side in recent years, such as increasing supply, promoting public housing construction and large-scale leasing, the regulatory policies are far from being refined and scientific. In the future, how to control the property market in Shenzhen? First of all, the financial sector must form a regulatory joint force with the housing and construction sector, and the thinking of departmentalism and one acre and three parts of land will kill people. In fact, the relevant work plan has been stipulated in the regulation and control on July 30, 2018 and July 15, 2020. However, in order to avoid the inertia of implementing documents by documents, we should avoid implementing documents by documents. Second, tax tools are crucial. At the real estate work forum held on July 24, the leaders stressed that the role of fiscal and tax policies should be brought into play to effectively regulate housing demand. This time, they stressed again. In fact, as long as the individual income tax is properly used according to 20% of the difference, supplemented by other conventional taxes and financing costs, the expected effect on market control will be greatly different. If there are problems, we should face them squarely. It is a good thing to expose them. It is estimated that the policy adjustment is on the way. We will wait and see! Finally, we should subdivide different types of demand and treat them differently in policy, protect the real rigid demand, and curb speculation with heavy taxes. (the author is the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center) source: Securities Times editor in charge: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

At present, although Shenzhen has done a lot of effective work on the supply side in recent years, such as increasing supply, promoting public housing construction and large-scale leasing, the regulatory policies are far from being refined and scientific. In the future, how to control the property market in Shenzhen? First of all, the financial sector must form a regulatory joint force with the housing and construction sector, and the thinking of departmentalism and one acre and three parts of land will kill people. In fact, the relevant work plan has been stipulated in the regulation and control on July 30, 2018 and July 15, 2020. However, in order to avoid the inertia of implementing documents by documents, we should avoid implementing documents by documents.

Finally, we should subdivide different types of demand and treat them differently in policy, protect the real rigid demand, and curb speculation with heavy taxes.

(the author is the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center)