Southwest Securities: A shares are in the middle of the bull market, and the market is expected to enter 4000 points

category:Finance
 Southwest Securities: A shares are in the middle of the bull market, and the market is expected to enter 4000 points


From the perspective of economic recovery, the troika driving the economy: investment, consumption, import and export have all recovered significantly, half way through. From the perspective of growth plate, the industry track is still good, and growth stocks are fully adjusted, which coincides with the year-end valuation switch and the opportunity of next years layout.

Specifically:

On the one hand, the economic recovery is better than the market expected. The resilience of Pro cyclical industries will be more durable than previously expected. Color and shipping are in the ascendant, and banks and non banks are returning as kings. On the other hand, the main sectors of growth stocks gradually show investment opportunities after deep correction. Medicine, electronics and computers are ushering in opportunities for layout.

Investment strategy:

On the whole, although there is a pullback in the current market, we should cherish the opportunity of turning back. There are opportunities for both pro cyclical and growth. From the pro cyclical industry, we are optimistic about the leading enterprises in shipping, nonferrous metals, automobiles, household appliances and finance. It is suggested to pay attention to COSCO Haikong, COSCO Haite, Zijin mining, western mining, SAIC Group, Midea Group, Gree Electric appliances, China Ping An, etc. From the perspective of the growth stock industry, it is suggested to start to lay out the wrong killing plates suppressed by negative factors, including pharmaceutical, electronic and computer industries. We are optimistic about the leading consumer electronics industry (Lingyi Zhizao, Lixun precision), semiconductor (Zhaoyi innovation, Wentai Technology), Xinchuang (Zhongke Shuguang, China software, etc.), innovative drugs (Hengrui medicine, Junshi biology, Guanhao biology, North China pharmaceutical, etc.), vaccines (Zhifei biology, Kangtai biology, Changchun hi tech, etc.). In addition, we can also pay proper attention to tourism (China immunity, Zhongxin tourism, Jinjiang Hotel, etc.) and aviation (spring and Autumn Airlines, etc.) with small recovery logic growth.

Prompt risk:

At present, it is in the relay of the third bull market in the history of a shares. The economic recovery continues and the market is getting better at the end of the year. There are opportunities for cycle growth, and the market is expected to reach 4000 points.

At present, the market is getting better at the end of the year. On the one hand, the economic recovery is better than the market expected. The resilience of Pro cyclical industries will be more durable than previously expected. Color and shipping are in the ascendant, and banks and non banks are returning as kings. On the other hand, the main sectors of growth stocks gradually show investment opportunities after deep correction. Medicine, electronics and computers are ushering in opportunities for layout.

From the perspective of macroeconomic pattern, the current economic recovery is on the way, and the trend has not changed.

From the perspective of the troika, investment, consumption, import and export have recovered in an all-round way.

In terms of investment structure, investment in manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure construction has recovered in an all-round way.

Manufacturing investment, which has been going down for many years, turned in June and began to turn upward. Historically, the recovery cycle of manufacturing investment is usually between 8 and 16 months. The current investment recovery is only half way through and can last at least one or two quarters in the future. From the perspective of investment structure, the weak growth rate of private manufacturing investment in recent years has begun to show an obvious rebound trend. The vitality of manufacturing industry is expected to continue to recover.

From the point of view of real estate investment, the real estate industry has also seen an obvious recovery. The growth rate of land purchase cost is on the rise, and the growth rate of real estate development investment after excluding land purchase cost is also on the rise. This shows that real estate enterprises have begun to actively acquire land and start to invest in construction. With the corresponding certificate, is the real estate construction and new construction area also appeared synchronous upward. At the same time, with the growth of construction and construction, the sales growth rate of commercial housing also rebounded and turned positive, which is stepping into the fast lane of sales. The whole real estate investment and sales are moving forward to a virtuous circle.

From the consumer side, the total retail sales of consumer goods also rebounded significantly. Both optional consumption and compulsory consumption show an upward growth rate month by month. As Chinas epidemic situation is under control, the consumption enthusiasm previously suppressed in the epidemic situation is gradually releasing. The most typical is car consumption. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, public transport is extremely inconvenient, which greatly increases the demand for private cars. At present, although the epidemic has faded, peoples travel habits have changed. In this case, car sales rebounded significantly.

From the trade side, imports and exports are recovering effectively. In October, the year-on-year growth rate of exports reached 11.4%, the highest growth rate in the past two years, and the fifth consecutive month of upward growth since the outbreak. From the import side, although the growth rate of imports in October fell on a month on month basis, it still maintained a high growth rate of nearly 5%, which also showed the resilience and vitality of Chinas economy.

At the same time of rapid economic recovery, liquidity gradually returned to normal.

In terms of growth stocks, after adjustment in recent months, also gradually fell out of the opportunity.

The most obvious ones are medicine and TMT. However, due to the existence of long-term growth, this bottom consolidation also means the arrival of opportunities. From the perspective of secondary industry performance, since September, medical devices, medical services, biological products, chemical pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical businesses have all shown a downward trend, falling by 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.7%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Among them, two factors have strongly suppressed the pharmaceutical sector: first, the latest development of overseas vaccine research and development has weakened the logic of epidemic benefit of relevant medical devices and supplies, and also suppressed the potential yield of domestic vaccine research and development; second, the medical insurance negotiation at the end of the year has not yet started, and the boots have not yet landed, which also makes the pharmaceutical sector uncertain Sex. Expected earnings decrease + uncertainty, making the pharmaceutical sector under obvious pressure. However, the current pharmaceutical sector has seen a lot of correction: since mid July, biological products have fallen by 20.2%, while chemical pharmaceuticals have fallen by 13.5%. It is expected that with the dust settled in early December, the pharmaceutical sector is expected to usher in a new round of rising opportunities.

From the perspective of TMT plate, although both showed a decline, there are obvious differences in logic between computer and electronic plate. From the perspective of the computer sector, although the sector itself has fallen a lot and is currently in the performance vacuum period, the expectation of a new round of government bidding has not yet been presented, and it is still in the stage of shock and bottom grinding. And the electronics sector, whether consumer electronics or semiconductors, due to Apples black market price performance is not as expected, causing impact on the plate. However, as Apples sales expectations rose again, consumer electronics and semiconductors showed an obvious V-shaped reversal in the 17th. Electronic plate is expected to have a round of rapid rebound.

Investment strategy:

Although the bull market as a whole should cherish the opportunity to go back. There are opportunities for procyclicality and growth.

From the pro cyclical industry, we are optimistic about the leading enterprises in shipping, nonferrous metals, automobiles, household appliances and finance. It is suggested to pay attention to COSCO Haikong, COSCO Haite, Zijin mining, western mining, SAIC Group, Midea Group, Gree Electric appliances, China Ping An, etc.

In addition, we can also pay proper attention to tourism (China immunity, Zhongxin tourism, Jinjiang Hotel, etc.) and aviation (spring and Autumn Airlines, etc.) with small recovery logic growth.

Prompt risk:

Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations and economic recovery was less than expected.