The total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line! On the alert of falling fertility rate

category:Finance
 The total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line! On the alert of falling fertility rate


Recently, in the suggestions of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, Li Jiheng, Minister of civil affairs, wrote an article in the guidance book. At present, affected by various factors, Chinas school-age populations fertility desire is low, the total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line, and the population development has entered a critical turning point.

He proposed that we should guide the improvement of fertility level and stabilize it in an appropriate range, and increase the supply of labor force.

As soon as the news came out, it immediately triggered extensive interpretation. What does it mean that the total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line? How to deal with population development entering a critical turning point? There is no lack of discussion value.

The accumulation effect of two children will decrease

The total fertility rate can be generally understood as the average number of children born to a couple. In modern society, if the fertility rate reaches 2.1, it is called to reach the replacement level, that is to say, the fertility level that can maintain the population replacement from generation to generation without increasing or decreasing the population.

If the fertility rate is lower than 1.5, it will fall below the warning line, because once the fertility rate falls below 1.5, it will fall into the trap of low fertility and it is difficult to rise again.

Take Japan as an example. It has been 25 years since Japans total fertility rate fell below 1.5 in 1995. Although Japan has been vigorously encouraging fertility in these 25 years, the total fertility rate has not been able to rise above 1.5.

On December 26, 2019, when talking about Japans low fertility crisis, Abe, the former Prime Minister of Japan, said: the situation is very serious now. It is not too much to say that it is a national disaster..

According to the data of Chinas population census and population sampling survey, the fertility rate in 2000 was 1.22, that in 2005 was 1.33, that in 2010 was 1.18 and that in 2015 was only 1.05.

The actual fertility rate will not exceed 1.5 even if the possible underreporting and error are considered.

It is worth mentioning that only when the number of one child is more than the number of two children among the new born population, the accumulation effect of two children will come to an end. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the population born in 2018 and 2019, the number of two children was more than the number of one child, so it can be judged that there is still the accumulation effect of two children in these two years.

Source: Beijing News

The marriage rate is low, and the childbearing willingness of the school-age population is low

In addition, due to the high cost of raising children, the low fertility willingness of school-age population is also an important reason for the low fertility rate. According to the national fertility sampling survey data conducted by the national health and Family Planning Commission in 2017, from 2006 to 2016, the average number of ideal children of women of childbearing age in China was 1.96, while the average number of children planned to have by women of childbearing age was 1.75.

This is not a unique sight in China. According to the data of JGSS and the world bank, from 2000 to 2012, the average ideal number of Japanese children was 2.41-2.60, but the actual fertility rate of Japan in these years was less than 1.5.

How to deal with the critical turning point of population development

From 2017 to 2019, Chinas birth population has decreased for three consecutive years. Due to the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the weakening of the accumulation effect of second child birth, the birth population in China will continue to decline year by year in the next few years.

With the birth population entering the decline channel, Chinas total population will also enter negative growth in the next few years. This means that Chinas total population is about to change from growth type to decline type.

Once Chinas population goes into negative growth, there is little possibility to reverse the negative growth trend in the future. Because to reverse the trend of negative population growth, it means that the fertility rate should be raised to more than 2.1. From the experience of Japan, South Korea and other countries, it is difficult to raise the fertility rate above 1.5 even if fertility is encouraged in the future.

To enhance the inclusiveness of the fertility policy, there is no doubt that there is a tendency to continue to open up the fertility policy, to abolish the strict birth restriction measures, and to adopt a more inclusive attitude towards the situation of illegitimate childbirth. In order to reduce the cost of childbirth, parenting and education, we need to develop the inclusive care service system, improve the child care rate of children under 3 years old, and strive to solve the worries of double working families for having children; tax reduction for families with multiple children can reduce the cost of parenting for families of child-bearing age. In a word, only comprehensive consideration, forward-looking deployment and systematic response, standing on the height of the new demographic dividend and coping with the aging society, can we better guide the improvement of fertility level and stabilize it in an appropriate range. With Chinas total fertility rate falling below the warning line, such a comprehensive and scientific response is obviously on the way. He Yafu (population research scholar) source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of Beijing News_ NB12679

To enhance the inclusiveness of the fertility policy, there is no doubt that there is a tendency to continue to open up the fertility policy, to abolish the strict birth restriction measures, and to adopt a more inclusive attitude towards the situation of illegitimate childbirth. In order to reduce the cost of childbirth, parenting and education, we need to develop the inclusive care service system, improve the child care rate of children under 3 years old, and strive to solve the worries of double working families for having children; tax reduction for families with multiple children can reduce the cost of parenting for families of child-bearing age.

In a word, only comprehensive consideration, forward-looking deployment and systematic response, standing on the height of the new demographic dividend and coping with the aging society, can we better guide the improvement of fertility level and stabilize it in an appropriate range.