Wind data shows that since January 1, 2019, up to December 1, 2020, the gem index has increased by 115.78%, the CSI 300 index has increased by 68.30%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has increased by 54.98%.
Correspondingly, the net value of public offering partial stock active products (common stock type + partial stock mixed type + flexible allocation type) also increased. According to the data, from January 1, 2019 to November 30, 2020, among the common stock funds, partial stock mixed funds and flexible allocation funds under the wind open-end fund classification, various shares were separately counted, and 1196 funds had a range return of more than 100%. That is, in the past two years since 2019, the net value of nearly 1200 fund products has doubled.
Historically, it is rare for mutual funds to return more than 30% for two consecutive years. The last time was between 2006 and 2007. The balance of the times is tilting towards institutional investors, Mr Li said
Rational adjustment of expected rate of return
So, what is the expected return rate of institutional investors for the public offering biased products in 2021?
To be honest, these two years expected yields are too messy. Liu Qing (pseudonym), a director of public equity investment in Beijing, told reporters.
He pointed out that at the beginning of 2018, the blue chip Baima bull market in 2017 continued before the Spring Festival. Many people thought that the elephant would continue to dance. However, since the second quarter, affected by liquidity and external disturbance, the market has been adjusted until the end of 2018. At the beginning of 2019, the overall market confidence is insufficient, but in fact, 2019 is the year of the fund. Looking at 2020 at the end of 2019, many people think that the probability of continuing to go cattle is not big. As a result, 2020 is another year of public offering.
At this point in time, its really hard to see the expected rate of return in 2021. 10% - 20% is a relatively cautious and optimistic expectation, and the expected yield should be adjusted rationally, Liu said
The market may further differentiate in 2021, said a fund manager in Shenzhen who is issuing equity products. Tactically, I will increase the allocation of value center regression, and more carefully evaluate the industry growth. At the same time, I will moderately increase the target of low risk and low expected return.
Structure and organization
At present, the markets concerns about investment income in 2021 mainly come from valuation and liquidity.
When talking about investment opportunities for next year, the interviewed fund managers said that despite the possibility of mean reversion, the trend of market institutionalization will continue, and structural opportunities must exist.
According to Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, the expectation of liquidity margin tightening will suppress the high valuation plate, while the better macroeconomic data indicates that the production side and the demand side are improving. In the short term, the pattern of undervalued Pro cyclical plate dominance is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, upgrading domestic demand and reinforcing the supply chain are the main directions, representing the consumption and technology of the new economy or the main line of the future market.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that with the gradual normalization of economic operation, the liquidity environment is bound to change, and the market will face certain valuation contraction pressure in the future. The recovery of asset prices in China is faster than that in the end of this year. For a long time to come, we need to be careful in dealing with the capital market.
Li Xunlei pointed out that after two years of rising deviation, there are indeed reasons and impetus for the return of mean value. In 2021, the capital market will still be relatively prosperous and open in the prosperity. However, it seems unrealistic to expect the public funds to continue to obtain an ultra-high return of more than 30%. Investment return to rationality is a long-term trend for emerging markets to mature. I believe that with the increase of the proportion of institutional investors, the valuation system of a shares will be more reasonable.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NBJ9607