Academy of Social Sciences: bid farewell to rising but not falling

category:Finance
 Academy of Social Sciences: bid farewell to rising but not falling


Under the policy background of implementing policies according to the city, the differentiation of the real estate market in different cities will become the normal. The report said that novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation accelerated the real estate market big differentiation eras arrival. In the era of great differentiation, the risk of local price rise and fall will become the focus of real estate market risk prevention.

The housing price and its return to the city in 2020 are partly impacted by the rational housing market. According to the year-on-year monitoring of Weifang index, from October 2019 to October 2020, the annual decline of house prices in 9 cities is more than 5%, and the highest annual decline is 9%.

Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project group of the Institute of financial strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that as a certain range of fluctuation has become the normal market, most of the citys housing price changes are still within the range of steady decline. If we lengthen the time dimension, compared with the historical highest point of house prices, some cities have already had a deeper adjustment of house prices.

Top house price time point and decline distribution table picture basic data: Weifang big database picture data analysis: Weifang Index Research Group

According to the monitoring of Weifang index, from the historical high point of each city to October 2020, the adjustment range of house price from the highest point in 20 cities is more than 10%, of which the adjustment range of house price from the highest point in 9 cities is more than 15%, and that of Langfang is the largest, reaching 46.9%.

From the point of view of the time when the prices of each city change from rising to falling, there are two kinds of situations in these cities: one is around the first half of 2017, represented by Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei cities, mainly caused by the real estate regulation and control of the first and second tier cities in the first half of 2017, which has been adjusted for about three and a half years. The other is around the second half of 2018, mainly in the third and fourth tier cities, mainly caused by the recession of monetized shed reform, which has been adjusted for about two and a half years.

According to the report, the reasons for the decline in house prices are more complex, which may be due to macro environmental factors, as well as the citys own oversupply. Although smooth operation is an important goal of real estate policy, a certain range of fluctuations is also the normal operation of the market.

In the past year, house prices in 9 cities have increased by more than 10%

However, from the historical high point of housing price monitoring, the urban real estate market differentiation is more serious. According to the zonal housing index, while housing prices in some cities have fallen from the highest point, house prices in another 30 cities may exceed the highs since January 2018.

Among these cities, some have experienced a wave of rise since 2016, and now there is a second wave. Some cities are still in the aftermath or make-up of the first rise since 2016. Zou Linhua believes that the reasons for the rise in house prices are complex, including macro environmental factors, insufficient supply of the city itself, and significant improvement in urban economic fundamentals. In addition, there is a relatively rapid rise that is difficult to be directly identified. For example, the prices of the related similar cities are falling rapidly, but the prices of the city are rising slightly. According to the measurement of the abnormal rise of house prices in the report, the ratio of house prices deviating from the short-term normal house prices in four cities is more than 7%, and the deviation rate of the highest cities is more than 20%. Zou Linhua thinks it is necessary to pay more attention to the rising house prices in these cities and take reasonable measures in advance when necessary. (Beijing News Reporter Yuan Xiuli) source: responsible editor of Beijing News: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

Zou Linhua believes that the reasons for the rise in house prices are complex, including macro environmental factors, insufficient supply of the city itself, and significant improvement in urban economic fundamentals. In addition, there is a relatively rapid rise that is difficult to be directly identified. For example, the prices of the related similar cities are falling rapidly, but the prices of the city are rising slightly.

According to the measurement of the abnormal rise of house prices in the report, the ratio of house prices deviating from the short-term normal house prices in four cities is more than 7%, and the deviation rate of the highest cities is more than 20%.

Zou Linhua thinks it is necessary to pay more attention to the rising house prices in these cities and take reasonable measures in advance when necessary. (Beijing News Reporter Yuan Xiuli)