How can a share go? Haitong Xun Yu: 2021 will enter the bull market bubble period

category:Finance
 How can a share go? Haitong Xun Yu: 2021 will enter the bull market bubble period


Next year, how to layout has become the focus of market attention. Haitong Securities chief strategist Xun Yugen said at the annual strategy meeting of Haitong Securities in December 2nd that the market will enter a bull market bubble driven by fundamental and emotional aspects in 2021. Looking ahead to 2021, it will be the first to promote technology. The reason is that profits will accelerate further under the policy dividend and technology dividend, and the development of computer industry, media and new energy industry chain in the sub sectors will be huge. At the same time, securities companies that pay attention to supporting technology for equity financing will boost the performance of securities companies in the short term, and the roe of securities companies will be improved in the medium term by looking at the gold reform.

On the same day, Haitong Securities chief economist Jiang Chao also released the macro judgment of next year. He believes that Chinas economy will be supported by three new forces, namely, talent bonus, urbanization and deepening reform and opening up. During the period of the fourteenth Five Year Plan period, the major domestic circulation will become the main body of economic development, and the large domestic demand and consumption market will be further prosperous. In the long run, Chinas economy is expected to enter an era of high-quality growth, and technology consumption will drive the stock market to grow. In the short term, pro cyclical blue chips are expected to lead the short-term gains, while bond market interest rates will continue to rise, benefiting from the economic recovery brought about by leverage. However, as the market interest rate continues to rise, there may be a credit crunch at some time in the future, which will lead to another bull bear switch between the bond market and the stock market.

Xun Yugen put forward three main points of view in the annual strategy: first, under the background of economic transformation, Chinas long-term equity investment and financing era has been gradually launched, and three major characteristics of equity investment: track oriented, leading oriented and institutional. Two, there is no contradiction between the long term equity era and the bull bear cycle. In 2021, the market entered the bubble period of profit and sentiment driven, which means share dancing. 3u3001 A-share is a bull of transformation and upgrading, science and technology and domestic demand are the medium-term main line, and short-term financial repair. Ah premium narrowing in the future may be due to the supplementary rise of Hong Kong shares.

He believes that the era of equity investment and financing in China has begun slowly under the background of industrial structure upgrading and financing structure transformation. Learning from the experience of American stocks around the 1980s, A-share is expected to usher in a long bull in the future.

There will be three characteristics of the market in the era of equity investment: the first is the racetrack. In the period of economic transformation, the high-quality track will focus on consumption and technology for a long time. From the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP, consumption to GDP, per capita GDP and added value of various industries, there is still a lot of room for the growth of Chinas consumption and science and technology. The second is leading. With the increase of industry concentration and market share of leading companies, the performance of leading companies is better, and the premium of leading companies is expected to be further enhanced. The third is institutionalization. Under the background of registration system, the number of A-share listed companies is increasing rapidly, the difficulty of stock selection is rising, and the advantages of institutional investors are highlighted.

At the same time, he pointed out that there is no contradiction between the long bull trend of a shares and the bull bear cycle. At present, the proportion of institutional investors in a shares is low, and the long bull is more likely to be composed of a series of small bull bears, that is, the market will move zigzag upward. A bull market can be divided into three stages according to the driving force. In 2019, the market was in the bull market incubation period driven by liquidity. This year is the bull market outbreak of two wheels driven by fundamentals and funds. In 2021, the market will enter a bull market bubble driven by fundamental and emotional aspects. It is estimated that in 2021, the accumulated net profit of all a shares owned by the parent company will grow by 15% on a year-on-year basis, and the market sentiment will further move up from the current 60 degrees. Next year, the stock market will be an exciting year for stocks.

Next years macro liquidity will not be as loose as this years, but micro liquidity will still be abundant. In the first three quarters of this year, the net inflow of funds has been close to 1.3 trillion, and it is expected to be 1.5 trillion for the whole year. In 2021, the allocation of residents assets will be further shifted to the equity market, and the annual net capital inflow will be more than 2 trillion yuan.

For the specific configuration, Xun Yugen pointed out that we should follow the trend and develop towards the sun.

Although the bull market in the medium term is a bull market of transformation and upgrading, and technology and consumption are the main lines, we should also pay attention to other industries in the process of the main line rising. Xun Yugen said.

Looking forward to 2021, Xun Yugen said that we will promote science and technology first, because the profits under the policy dividend and technology dividend will be further accelerated, and the development space of computer, media, new energy industry chain and other industries in the sub industry will be huge; at the same time, for the securities companies that pay attention to supporting technology for equity financing, in the short term, the bull market will boost the performance of securities companies, and in the medium term, the gold reform will eventually improve the bonds Business roe.

Xun Yugen pointed out that the second echelon to be paid attention to is the direction of domestic demand: the proposal of the 14th five year plan once again emphasizes the construction of a new development pattern of double circulation, and proposes to form a strong domestic market and take expanding domestic demand as the strategic basis point. Next year, mass consumption is expected to rise, and the demand for dairy products, restaurants, supermarkets and other public consumption may increase greatly; at the same time, with the increase of income level, the demand for medical services such as specialized hospitals, high-end medical devices, medical cosmetology, health care and other medical services is expected to increase.

In addition, we believe that the Hong Kong stock market is basically good, and the valuation is relatively cheap, which is expected to usher in a supplementary rise, and the ah spread will tend to converge. Xun Yugen said.

Jiang Chao: Science and technology consumption will drive long bull in stock market

Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, summarizes 2020 with recovery and challenges and looks forward to 2021. He believed that Chinas effective anti epidemic efforts have promoted economic recovery, while the main force of credit expansion has recovered.

Jiang Chao believes that thanks to the effective control of the epidemic, Chinas supply chain has taken the lead in the recovery of the world, and the proportion of Chinas exports in the world has increased significantly. In the first quarter of this year, the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic led to a short-term economic recession in China. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, Chinas economy gradually recovered after the second quarter, and further accelerated since the third quarter. Since the third quarter, the two major demand for real estate and automobile have performed strongly, which will drive the demand in the middle and upper reaches in the future, indicating that the industrial economic recovery in the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate.

In terms of credit expansion, Chinas social financing growth began to pick up in March, while the growth rate of power generation, which represents the economic trend, also rebounded from the bottom. The recovery of social financing growth means that credit will return to the expansion cycle. At present, the government, residents and enterprises are all adding leverage. Among them, government financing has increased significantly for three consecutive months. The downward loan interest rate has pushed the residential sector to re leverage, while the medium and long-term loans from the enterprise sector have also kept increasing, mainly reflecting the start of the inventory cycle.

Looking forward to the first half of 2021, government financing will continue to increase significantly, and the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises are expected to continue to rise, thus driving the growth of social finance to continue to rise, indicating that this round of economic recovery is expected to continue to the first half of 2021.

Jiang Chao pointed out that the domestic easing policy is facing the launch.

Another important effect of currency over issuance is the rise of debt leverage ratio. In the third quarter of 2020, Chinas debt leverage ratio has risen to 266% from 242% at the end of last year. The risk of future debt defaults will also increase.

Looking forward to 2021, the economic recovery is expected to accelerate. However, considering the constraint of debt ratio, it is expected that the generalized fiscal deficit in 2021 will be basically equal to that in 2020, and government financing may decline year on year in the second half of the year. The rise of economic inflation will inevitably lead to the rise of bank loan interest rate, and then lead to the adjustment of central bank policy interest rate. Therefore, after the market interest rate rebounds in 2020, the policy interest rate in 2021 may also rise, and the monetary policy will be stable and tight. Jiang Chao said that looking forward to the future, Chinas economy will usher in the support of talent bonus, urbanization and deepening reform and opening up. During the period of the fourteenth Five Year Plan period, the major domestic circulation will become the main body of economic development, and the large domestic demand and consumption market will be further prosperous. In the long run, Chinas economy is expected to enter an era of high-quality growth, and technology consumption will drive the stock market to grow. In the short term, pro cyclical blue chips are expected to lead the short-term gains, while bond market interest rates will continue to rise, benefiting from the economic recovery brought about by leverage. However, as the market interest rate continues to rise, there may be a credit crunch at some time in the future, which will lead to another bull bear switch between the bond market and the stock market. Source: securities companies, China Author: Sun Xiangfeng, editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619

Looking forward to 2021, the economic recovery is expected to accelerate. However, considering the constraint of debt ratio, it is expected that the generalized fiscal deficit in 2021 will be basically equal to that in 2020, and government financing may decline year on year in the second half of the year. The rise of economic inflation will inevitably lead to the rise of bank loan interest rate, and then lead to the adjustment of central bank policy interest rate. Therefore, after the market interest rate rebounds in 2020, the policy interest rate in 2021 may also rise, and the monetary policy will be stable and tight.

In the long run, Chinas economy is expected to enter an era of high-quality growth, and technology consumption will drive the stock market to grow.

In the short term, pro cyclical blue chips are expected to lead the short-term gains, while bond market interest rates will continue to rise, benefiting from the economic recovery brought about by leverage. However, as the market interest rate continues to rise, there may be a credit crunch at some time in the future, which will lead to another bull bear switch between the bond market and the stock market.