Goldman Sachs: now at the beginning of a new cycle

category:Finance
 Goldman Sachs: now at the beginning of a new cycle


According to Goldman Sachs, we are now at the beginning of a new cycle, which is not only the starting point of the global economic recovery cycle in the next three years or so, but also the starting point of the recovery of corporate profitability fundamentals.

Wang Shengzu said that from a macro perspective, China and the United States are the locomotives and boosters of future global economic growth. China returned to its pre epidemic level in the third quarter of this year, and will continue to grow at an extraordinary economic growth rate next year. In the second half of next year, the U.S. economy will probably return to the level before the epidemic. From the perspective of 2020-2021, the United States can maintain a positive growth rate of about 1.5%.

From the perspective of market performance, the stock markets of China and the United States performed well. China has a big fluctuation at the beginning of 2020, but the market has been recovering since then. U.S. stocks bottomed out in late March and have rebounded 62% from their lows so far.

Wang Shengzu specially stressed that in the future, it is necessary to maintain the layout and investment of risk assets represented by stocks and equity. We believe that this kind of equity risk assets must significantly outperform cash and bonds. Whether you are investors in China or the United States, you should maintain a stock position in asset allocation.

We always believe that the epidemic is a temporary shock, which has not affected the accumulation and distribution of technology, human resources and capital, Wang said This year, affected by the epidemic, the earnings per share and corporate profits of listed companies have dropped sharply, but the actual situation is much better than everyone imagined.. From next year, under the general trend of epidemic prevention and control, vaccine landing and economic recovery, as well as the low base effect this year, the companys profits will rebound sharply. In terms of industries, cyclical industries, including luxury consumption, energy, industrial manufacturing and finance, are greatly improved.

Wang Shengzu believes that in the future, the market style will change from a unique branch led by science and technology stocks to a hundred flowers blooming in various sectors. In other words, in the past, the high-tech sector led the market recovery and rebound; in the future, all industries will usher in recovery and rebound, which will support the future market trend.

The performance of A shares this year is basically ahead of the worlds major markets. Whether A shares can still lead the world next year and still outperform the major indexes is not certain. But we believe that healthy growth in the stock market and growth in line with economic growth are more important. Wang Shengzu said.

Wang Shengzu said that from the industry point of view, he is optimistic about new energy vehicles, environmental protection, medical treatment, education, tourism and other industries. This is an important pillar industry in Chinas economic transformation. With the epidemic situation under control and the resumption of production and work smoothly, there should be more expectations for the recovery of these industries.

In addition, Goldman Sachs believes that due to the opening of the new cycle, traditional industries such as finance will grow in line with GDP. Wang Shengzu also said that he was optimistic about new infrastructure related industries, including high-end manufacturing industry, 5g and other related industries.

Incremental capital allocation Pro cyclical industry

As for future investment proposals, Wang Shengzu said: high tech industries or leading enterprises are an indispensable part of stock investment and should become a part of strategic investment in investment. If new funds enter the market, we suggest that we should focus on traditional industries or pro cyclical industries, rather than reducing high-tech stocks to increase holdings in traditional industries and pro cyclical industries.

Wang Shengzu said that since this year, the extent of foreign investment into a shares has increased significantly compared with the past. However, in terms of the overall holding rate, the proportion of foreign investors in A-share market is still less than 4%, which is still far from the proportion of international investors in the global economy and the goal of promoting RMB internationalization in the future. In the next five years, we hope to see continued financial opening measures to bring more confidence for international investors to enter Chinas capital market. In addition, Wang Shengzu also talked about his views on bitcoin and gold. Mr Wang said the investment strategy group of Goldman Sachs has always been relatively interested in stocks, rather than the performance of special currencies and gold. As far as gold is concerned, gold is a safe haven asset. Goldman Sachs believes that in the future, it should be risky or even slightly leveraged. As far as bitcoin is concerned, the investment strategy group of Goldman Sachs does not regard it as a financial asset for the time being, but a highly speculative commodity, which should be relatively cautious. Editor: Zhu Shaoyong source: Shanghai Securities News Editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619

Wang Shengzu said that since this year, the extent of foreign investment into a shares has increased significantly compared with the past. However, in terms of the overall holding rate, the proportion of foreign investors in A-share market is still less than 4%, which is still far from the proportion of international investors in the global economy and the goal of promoting RMB internationalization in the future. In the next five years, we hope to see continued financial opening measures to bring more confidence for international investors to enter Chinas capital market.

Editor: Zhu Shaoyong