The bull market has been going on for nearly two years, and the Shanghai index has reached a new high. We should seize the opportunity of supplementary rise at the end of the year

category:Finance
 The bull market has been going on for nearly two years, and the Shanghai index has reached a new high. We should seize the opportunity of supplementary rise at the end of the year


In terms of the duration of the bull market in history, there is little chance of more than two years, and there are also big differences on how to go for a shares in the future. The bull market of science and technology, consumption and medicine in the first half of the year soon switched to the bull market of cyclical stocks after the National Day holiday. The structural trend of A-share makes it difficult for investors to grasp.

In the second half of the year, some science and technology stocks and pharmaceutical stocks had a relatively obvious adjustment. The stock prices of some pharmaceutical stocks which had increased business volume due to the epidemic situation fell to the level of March and April, especially those related to the mask industry chain. Since the second quarter, the domestic epidemic situation control is relatively ideal, and the first to return to work and production. However, with the aggravation of overseas epidemic situation, the world is in urgent need of medical supplies such as masks, and the orders are concentrated in China. The export of protective products such as masks is booming, the inventory is falling, the price is rising, and the production capacity is also greatly expanded. However, as a large number of industrial enterprises (especially some automobile enterprises) transform to produce masks, and the production capacity meets the demand of the world, the price of masks falls, the inventory returns to normal level, and individual stocks of the industrial chain also adjust significantly in the second half of the year.

Since the end of September, the cycle stocks which have been hot speculation for more than two months will be similar to the mask industry chain plate in March and April? This is a question that investors should think about. Of course, not all cyclical stocks are overvalued. Some stocks with single digit P / E ratios, such as finance, real estate, infrastructure and other sectors, may still have a certain demand for rotation. If investors who make good profits in cyclical stocks, they can consider switching to sectors with lower valuations and better fundamentals, waiting for the make-up approach.

From the perspective of IPO, 2020 is a year of comprehensive promotion of registration system, and the inflated valuations of some enterprises will gradually decrease. Naturally, the index increase is far less than the previous bull markets. There are some reasonable factors. 2020 and 2010 are both IPO years of A-share, and there are more similarities. After 2011, A-share experienced a more obvious adjustment. According to the data, although ant group failed to list successfully in the fourth quarter of 2020, 293 new shares of A-share were listed in the first three quarters of 2020, raising 355 billion yuan. Compared with 127 new shares in the first three quarters of 2019, the number of new shares increased by 131% and the amount of financing increased by 153%. The amount of financing increased by RMB 159.82 billion, which is similar to that in 2010. After two years of bull market, investors expectations for the overall return on investment in 2021 should be lowered. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF4368

From the perspective of IPO, 2020 is a year of comprehensive promotion of registration system, and the inflated valuations of some enterprises will gradually decrease. Naturally, the index increase is far less than the previous bull markets. There are some reasonable factors. 2020 and 2010 are both IPO years of A-share, and there are more similarities. After 2011, A-share experienced a more obvious adjustment.

According to the data, although ant group failed to list successfully in the fourth quarter of 2020, 293 new shares of A-share were listed in the first three quarters of 2020, raising 355 billion yuan. Compared with 127 new shares in the first three quarters of 2019, the number of new shares increased by 131% and the amount of financing increased by 153%. The amount of financing increased by RMB 159.82 billion, which is similar to that in 2010.

After two years of bull market, investors expectations for the overall return on investment in 2021 should be lowered.