According to the OECD, Chinas recovery will be earlier than that of other economies in the world. China is expected to achieve 1.8% economic growth in 2020, and is the only major economy that is expected to achieve positive growth in 2020, and its economic growth is expected to reach 8% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.
The United States will record a 3.7% economic contraction in 2020, and then return to growth, which is expected to return to positive growth of 3.2% and 3.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively; while in the eurozone, real GDP is expected to be - 7.5% in 2020, 3.6% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Other major emerging countries, including Brazil and India, are expected to recover only slowly.
China is expected to contribute more than a third of world economic growth by 2021, while Europe and the United States will still contribute less than their share in the world economy, the report said. Led by Chinas strong recovery, global GDP will return to its pre epidemic level by the end of 2021.
Laurence Boone, chief economist at the OECD, points out that for the first time since hubris prevailed, there is now a brighter hope. Progress in vaccines and treatments has raised expectations for the future, eliminated uncertainty to a certain extent, and made the way forward brighter and more challenging.
At the same time, the gap between different countries will continue to widen, and output in many economies is expected to remain about 5% below pre crisis levels by 2022.