Strong expectation of cyclical improvement next year

category:Finance
 Strong expectation of cyclical improvement next year


Several bank stocks hit a record high

In November, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets came out of a shock upward trend, and the bank plate played an important role in pulling the index.

In November, a shares fluctuated upward, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index reached a new high since 2015. The strong performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is inseparable from the promotion of financial stocks, especially the banking sector with a large proportion of weight. LV Changshun pointed out to the reporter of Securities Daily.

According to Ifind statistics, although there was a correction on the last day of November, the cumulative increase in the banking sector was still as high as 9.13%, and the shares of all 37 A-share listed banks rose. Among them, as many as 11 banks rose more than 10%. Xiamen bank, which has just been listed on October 27 this year, has increased by 53.62% in a single month, taking the lead among the listed banks. In addition, the share prices of China Merchants Bank, industrial bank and Ningbo Bank also reached a record high.

Among Shenwans 28 first tier industries, the banking sector ranked fifth in November, second only to nonferrous metals, mining, steel and non banking finance. This is in sharp contrast to the long-term situation in which the bank sector has been ranked lower.

With the strengthening of stock price, the trading of bank shares is becoming more and more active. Statistics show that the average daily turnover rate of the banking sector is only 0.19%, but it has increased to 0.22% in November.

Undervalue + profit turns warm

The bank plate is sought after by the main funds

Industry insiders generally believe that the domestic economic data is better, and the bank plate whose valuation is still low is becoming an important target of major funds attention.

LV Changshun told the Securities Daily that the stock prices of listed banks are still at a historic bottom, and the Pb values of the five state-owned banks are all less than 1. The dividend yield of several major state-owned banks is higher than the bank deposit interest rate, which shows that the long-term investment value of bank shares has appeared. In addition, low valuation also makes bank shares have a higher margin of safety. Ifind statistics show that after this round of strengthening, the price to book ratio of the banking sector has increased from 0.61% at the end of October to 0.67% at present, but the stock prices of as many as 26 banks are still in the breaking net state.

In the first half of this year, as many as 10 banks net profits fell by more than 10% year-on-year. But by the third quarter, the number had dropped to three. Moreover, a number of banks in the third quarter of a single quarter net profit growth reached double-digit.

Wu Wen, a senior researcher at the financial research center of Bank of communications, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the weakening of provision provision provision was the primary factor for the narrowing of the year-on-year decrease in net profit of listed banks in the third quarter. At the same time, the increase of asset investment and the slowdown of cost growth also contributed to some extent. The reduction of provision provision is mainly due to the improvement of the overall business environment of the bank, and the pressure of asset quality control is better than previously expected. Therefore, the pace of provision provision provision further returns to normal.

Wu Wen predicted that from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, the overall business environment of the banking industry is relatively loose, and the growth rate of operating income is expected to rise; the growth rate of net profit is expected to usher in an inflection point, and gradually turn from negative growth to positive growth, but the growth rate depends on the strategy of the reserve provision of each bank.

LV Changshun also believes that affected by the epidemic this year, many banks have increased the provision rate of non-performing assets. With the economic recovery next year, the banking industry is expected to return to normal business cycle. This years excessive provision ratio will generate profits next year.

Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Securities Daily_ NF4368