Recently, nonferrous metal plate has continuously created a new stage high. According to the data of Dongfang fortune choice, the Shenwan secondary steel index has always maintained a strong shock since late November. The index has rebounded continuously from 2290 points, and has reached new highs of 2350 points and 2400 points. In terms of individual stocks, as of December 1, 26 steel stocks headed by St Fuzhou steel and CITIC special steel closed on the red plate.
As for nonferrous metal futures, as of December 1, most fund metals remained strong, and Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, iron ore, hot coil and other futures varieties all went up to varying degrees. Since November, Shanghai copper has shown a trend of unilateral increase, and has successively reached a stage high of 52000 yuan / ton, 53850 yuan / ton and 57980 yuan / ton.
On the one hand, the stock futures linkage, on the other hand, nonferrous metals deviated from the trend of gold and crude oil. Since October, the price of gold has been declining, crude oil has been weak, and other leading commodities have failed to show a strong pattern. Only nonferrous metal prices have been outstanding. Many analysts pointed out that the joint rise of the non-ferrous metal stock market and futures market was mainly due to the weakening of macro uncertainty factors, which led to the rise of market trading sentiment.
The Milky Way futures special purchases for the Spring Festival, Wang Yingying, told the Securities Daily that the results of the US presidential election were the result of the lifting of the biggest risk in the global market, the recovery of market risk preference, and the continued easing of investors expectations for the money market next year. Economic recovery is expected to boost demand for non-ferrous metals and promote non-ferrous metal prices to rise to a bubble stage.
Among the non-ferrous metal varieties, Wang Yingying is optimistic about the performance of Shanghai aluminum. She believes that aluminum in the early stage of environmental protection and production restrictions continue to speculation, prices continue to rise, alumina prices have recently stopped falling and stabilized. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season, but the performance of Shanghai aluminum is stronger than expected. In addition, the spot market will probably maintain the de inventory status; under the logic of low inventory and high demand, Shanghai aluminum may continue to be a strong market.
For the trend of Shanghai zinc, Wang Yingying believes that the low season in the fourth quarter continues to deepen, and the weak trend of infrastructure consumption slightly converges. At the same time, the import of zinc continued to close, supporting domestic inventories. It is expected that in the pattern of shrinking supply, the marginal repair of demand side may give some support to zinc price.
Cao Yang, a senior non-ferrous metals analyst at the Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that at present, the inventory level of most non-ferrous metals is at a low level in the same period of history, the ratio of Treasury to sales is low, and there is a further downward trend, and the supply stage is tight, which forms a strong support for the price of non-ferrous metals. The investment logic of the stock exchange linkage lies in the strong support of the fundamentals and the macro level, attracting a large influx of funds. Although most of the non-ferrous metal prices are relatively high in history, and even there is a certain trend of bubble, it is difficult to find the fundamentals of the bubble in the short term. The performance of the market outlook is still worth looking forward to.
Obvious signs of two-way reduction of institutional positions
According to the after hours position data of Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of December 1, the main contracts of Shanghai copper 2101 were 348300, 5389 more than the previous day. However, the long position decreased by 6238 hands to 84300 hands, while the short position also decreased by 5926 hands to 88600 hands. From the perspective of reducing positions, Yongan futures, chaos Tiancheng and Haitong futures are the most active in long positions reduction; Yide futures, Huaan futures and CCB futures are the most obvious in short positions.
Analysts believe that both the two-way positions of Shanghai copper and Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. have decreased simultaneously, and the short position is significantly higher than the long position, showing two intentions; the two-way position decreases synchronously, which indicates that the willingness of capital to leave the market is obvious; the short position is higher than the long position, indicating that the short-term price is under pressure.
Wu Kunjin, a nonferrous metals researcher at Minmetals economic futures, told reporters that in the first quarter of next year, due to the low base effect, the demand growth rate of Chinas copper market will significantly increase. Although the supply growth rate is predicted to be low, the seasonal accumulation pressure will still exist, and the pattern of oversupply may continue, and the overall global copper supply and demand will be marginal relaxed. At the same time, the demand for zinc ore should decline significantly, and the supply pressure of zinc ore will gradually appear. Superimposed on the seasonal accumulation of Chinas refined zinc inventory in the first quarter of next year, the action force on zinc price will be weakened or will gradually peak. In addition, the first quarter has always been a low season for lead consumption, and the departure of funds may lead to a large decline in lead prices.
Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Securities Daily_ NF4368