On November 30, Josh Hardie, Deputy Director-General of the British Federation of industries (CBI), representing about 190000 manufacturing enterprises, urged politicians to bridge their differences. He said the new crown epidemic has deprived enterprises of flexible space to survive. The prospect of the end of the transition period of brexit has caused losses. The business community urgently needs to reach the stability provided by the brexit agreement.
During border control tests at Dover last week, cars lined up for five miles on the road connecting the French ferry to the European tunnel train. Information map
Success or failure in this week
Since both sides of the negotiation want to force the other side to make concessions beyond their actual ability or willingness, the brexit talks have been stuck on a few issues for a year and have always been deadlocked.
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on November 29th that talks between the UK and the EU are now in the final week and that a breakthrough is expected by Friday. But the prime ministers office warned that the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement was underestimated.
On the issue of fishery access, Barniers latest concession is that the European Union can accept to reduce its share of fishing rights in British waters from the current level by 15% - 18%, equivalent to 120 million euro income. However, British officials immediately rejected the proposal, saying that the so-called concession is ridiculous. The EU should fully know that the British side will never accept this number.
As for the second question, in the tug of war between the two sides, the UK has agreed not to abandon the EUs environmental, social and labour standards at the end of the transition period. However, the EU wants more and hopes that the UK will continue to follow up with the gradual improvement of relevant standards in Brussels in the future.
But the British dont want to be bound by the rules of Brussels after brexit. The British negotiating team has repeatedly stressed that it will not sell British sovereignty to reach an agreement, demanding that the EU side must adopt new thinking.
However, Cl u00e9 ment Beaune, French Minister for European affairs and close ally of President Marcon, called out his compatriot Barnier from the air, saying that the EU side must remain firm and never be intimidated. Although the negotiations are difficult, it is important to bear in mind that there are more Britons than we need.
However, the expectation of European Commission President van der lain for banier is to try his best to mediate an agreement. Von der lain specially sent one of her senior officials, Stephanie Riso, to help banier break the deadlock.
Lord frost, the British negotiator, said that although it was indeed very late, he believed that there was still a chance to reach an agreement, and he vowed to continue the dialogue until it was clear that no agreement could be reached between the two sides, and that the EU must fully respect British sovereignty.
The Johnson administration once again stressed that if the EU does not give in, Britain is ready to end the transition period of brexit without an agreement.
Enterprises are still looking forward to the final breakthrough
In this protracted and little progress negotiation, the position of the British government has become more and more tough, but the British business community is not in line with the government.
Hardy complained that the arrival of the deadline for the transition period for brexit has caused greater losses to the business community in addition to the impact of the new crown epidemic, leading to a reduction in cash reserves. From the first day of next year, the threat of supply chain disruption looms over all cross-border sales companies, regardless of size.
Automakers, including Volkswagen and Honda, are now scrambling to stock up on auto parts and try to move more cars and parts by the deadline before the end of the transition period to ensure that companies will not be hit by sudden tariffs if the UK and EU fail to reach a trade agreement.
From January 1, next year, trade between the UK and the EU will be subject to the new trade rules. It is not optimistic to say that if tariffs are eventually imposed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, the price of British imported cars will immediately rise by 10%.
The Association estimates that the UK auto industry alone will spend more than 235 million pounds on preparations for brexit in 2020. However, compared with the Levy of tariffs, the cost is still dwarfed.
The tariff will immediately increase the average cost of imported cars by 1900 pounds per vehicle, so some car dealers are also busy importing more car stocks from Europe by the deadline.
Michael Woodward, head of the UK auto sector at Deloitte, a consultancy, points out that the challenge for companies is to predict what is the right inventory. Inventory errors can also be costly. The impact of the new epidemic on consumer behavior and car sales makes it increasingly difficult to predict short-term market demand.
For Londons financial industry, which is suffering from the new crown epidemic, the prospect is also worrying. The Paris based EU Securities and market regulator has made it clear that after the UKs complete brexit, European banks operating in the UK still need to be regulated by EU regulations when they operate financial derivatives business. This will directly threaten the citys 50 trillion Euro annual derivatives business.
The office of budget responsibility (OBR) said last week that without a trade deal with the European Union, the UK economy would first suffer a direct 2% blow, the GDP losses would continue and the government would need to borrow an additional 10 billion pounds to make up the hole. OBR said the pain of brexit would seriously hit different sectors of the UK economy, roughly equivalent to the loss of the new crown pandemic in the long run.
EU citizens living in the UK are required to apply for the right to continue to live and work in the UK by 30 June next year.
Official demographics for June 2019 show that a total of 3.4 million EU, EEA and Swiss citizens live in the UK.