Huatai Bairui China Securities photovoltaic industry ETF (hereinafter referred to as photovoltaic ETF) officially opened online cash sale on December 1, and only for one day. Among them, the upper limit of the ETFs raising scale is 2 billion yuan, and the China Securities photovoltaic industry index (hereinafter referred to as the photovoltaic industry) will be tracked by the full replication method. In the photovoltaic industry, the stocks of listed companies whose main business involves the upper, middle and lower reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain are selected as the samples. At present, 39 companies in the photovoltaic industry chain are selected as the sample stocks to reflect the overall performance of the photovoltaic industry companies.
Significance of photovoltaic ETF
The flexibility of individual stocks but the ability to avoid the greater risks of individual stocks is the main reason why segmented ETF has attracted much attention. Since the beginning of this year, ETFs in many subdivided fields have developed rapidly. Among them, ETFs in semiconductor chips, 5g communications, new energy vehicles and other sub sectors have been launched one after another, which has strengthened the markets attention to the fine molecule industry. From the investment level, the subdivision fields with high landscape and pro cyclical characteristics have medium and long-term allocation value. As one of the representatives, photovoltaic ETF came into being.
From the market point of view, because there is a certain seesaw effect in the current market, under the structural market, if we grasp the phased giving of the subdivision industry, we can obtain the excess return far beyond the broad base index such as China Securities 500, and individual stocks have greater contingency compared with ETF. Therefore, the allocation of ETF in the subdivision field has gradually become the preferred choice of investors.
In recent years, photovoltaic industry has fully enjoyed its procyclical characteristics. Since 2019, thanks to the continuous growth of overseas market share and the introduction of new photovoltaic policies, the photovoltaic industry has begun to move towards the energy core stage with its own economy, and the industry prosperity has continued to rise to this day. This can be confirmed by the excellent performance of the photovoltaic industry index. According to the data, the index has risen from 1188 in 2018 to 2870 now, up 141.58%. In the same period, the CSI 300 index rose only 62.94%.
The launch of photovoltaic ETF is a bit late for the photovoltaic industry which has been hot for two years. At this moment, the issue of photovoltaic ETF has a limited impact on the whole industry.
At present, the total market value of a shares in the photovoltaic industry is 1.2 trillion yuan, and the circulating market value is 1.04 trillion yuan. According to the upper limit of 2 billion yuan, it only accounts for 0.16% of the total market value and 0.2% of the circulating market value.
The high weight ratio of the head company leads to the limited ability of ETF to avoid individual stock risk, and the small amount of ETF has limited impact on the head company. At present, the top five weighted companies in the photovoltaic industry are: Longji shares (601012. SH), Tongwei (13.835%), Zhonghuan (002129. SZ), 7.055% (300274. SZ) and Zhengtai (601877. SH), which account for 15.867%, 13.835% and 7.255%, respectively, Close to half. It should be pointed out that the daily turnover of Longji, a photovoltaic head company, was 3.07 billion yuan on December 1, while the expected purchase amount corresponding to this weight was 317 million yuan, accounting for only 10.33% of its one-day transaction proportion.
The bigger problem of the market for photovoltaic ETF lies in the significance of choosing medium and long-term configuration at this time.
The current valuation of the photovoltaic industry is at an all-time high. Through the wind P / E channel, we can see that the reasonable valuation of the photovoltaic industry should be around 33 times, while the current P / E ratio of 38 times is obviously overheated.
From the perspective of the whole a share, the valuation of photovoltaic industry is also at a high level. By the end of November, the corresponding P / E ratio of the photovoltaic industry has reached 37.59 times. As a comparison, the P / E ratio of Wande all a is 23 times, that of Hushen 300 is only 15 times, and that of CSI 500, which is also a representative of growth, is 29 times.
Not only the industry valuation is high, but the valuation of its high weight stocks is also at their respective high levels.
Longji Co., Ltd. is the worlds leading manufacturer of solar monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products, and its industry has covered the whole photovoltaic industry chain. At present, the market value of the company has exceeded 260 billion yuan, ranking first in the photovoltaic industry. Its price earnings ratio (TTM) is 32 times, higher than its historical average of 24 times.
Tongwei Co., Ltd. develops agriculture and new energy. In the main business of new energy, the company has a vertical integrated photovoltaic enterprise from the production of high-purity crystalline silicon in the upstream, the production of solar cells in the midstream, and the construction of terminal photovoltaic power stations. The main agricultural industry is feed industry. At present, the market value of the company is 135.5 billion yuan, and the price earnings ratio (TTM) is 36 times, higher than its historical average of 24 times.
The main products of Zhonghuan company are applied in semiconductor and new energy material field. The new energy sector mainly includes solar silicon, solar cells and solar modules. At present, the market value of the company is 68.9 billion yuan, and the price earnings ratio (TTM) is 64 times, far higher than its historical average of 47 times.
Sunshine power is the largest photovoltaic inverter manufacturer in China and a leading wind energy converter enterprise in China. At present, the market value of the company is 71.2 billion yuan, and the price earnings ratio (TTM) is 46 times, far higher than its historical average of 21 times.
Chint is a leading enterprise in the market of low-voltage electrical appliances. It is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of five categories of low-voltage electrical appliances such as distribution appliances. At present, the market value of the company is 71.3 billion yuan, and the price earnings ratio (TTM) is 18 times, slightly higher than its historical average of 16 times.
The only confidence in the market comes from the growth of photovoltaic industry. It is estimated that the total net profit of PV industry sample shares will be 38.2 billion yuan this year, an increase of 60.5% compared with that of RMB 23.8 billion yuan in 2019, and its corresponding peg is 1.61 times. The expected profit of CSI300 is 3195.7 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% compared with 3167.1 billion yuan in 2019, corresponding to 0.06 times of PEG. The expected profit of CSI 500 is 413.9 billion yuan, an increase of 30.57% compared with 317 billion yuan in 2019, corresponding to 1.05 times of PEG.
The high valuation of photovoltaic industry has already included the future growth expectation of the industry to a certain extent, and the aerial refueling of time volt ETF may need more time to test.