In fact, the recent performance of peripheral markets has not been bad. The most extensive index in Asia Pacific region outside MSCI Japan rose 1.08% and closed up 9% in the month, the best November since 2001. Analysts believe that the continued improvement of Chinas economic data is the main reason for the rise in the peripheral market, and the new crown vaccine is the booster of the market bull atmosphere. Today, there is a lot of good news about vaccines.
The cattle that just ran away are back?
If according to yesterdays peripheral market performance and todays morning market information, a shares do not seem to be in a long atmosphere. This morning, news of the US Treasury Departments sanctions against Chinese enterprises and the assassination of senior Iranian officials came out again. However, the stock indexes of the two cities opened slightly lower and went up all the way, with the northward funds buying nearly 16.3 billion yuan unilaterally all day.
By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.77%, hitting 3457 points, just one step away from 3458 points; Shenzhen composite index was 13930.37 points, up 1.90%; gem index was 2698.44 points, up 2.53%; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 3554.01 points, up 2.44%; science and technology innovation 50 was at 1404.24 points, up 1.35%.
On the disk, plate rotation is more benign. In the morning, banks rose, subject stocks were interspersed with speculation, securities companies rose in the afternoon, and China Merchants Securities once closed the board. Insurance and banks rose 3.43% and 2.85% respectively, while the securities sector closed up 3.65%. Auto stocks are also strong, Changan Motor trading limit, China auto research, camel shares and other stocks are very strong, the auto index rose more than 3%.
In terms of monetary environment, the peoples Bank of China not only invested 200 billion yuan of MLF funds, but also operated 150 billion yuan of Omo reverse repurchase. It also announced that MLF will continue on December 15. It shows the flexibility and moderation of monetary policy, and also reflects the care of medium-term capital interest rate. After that, the money market interest rate dropped significantly, the Shanghai interbank offered rate fell across the board, and the reverse repurchase rate dropped sharply.
In the context of a better internal environment, the trend of the market may mainly depend on the trend of the external market.
Two big news about vaccines
In the current situation, the trend of the periphery depends largely on the progress of the new coronal vaccine. Today, there are two more big news.
According to Reuters and Yonhap news agency on December 1, Harry kazianis, director of the North Korea Research Center of the national interest Institute, a us think tank, said on November 30 that North Koreas top leader, Kim Jong Un, had recently been vaccinated with the new coronal vaccine provided by China.
The U.S. Food and drug administration has not yet approved the covid-19 vaccine. Pfizer and biontech have developed vaccines, and Moderna says recent trials have shown that their vaccines are more than 90% effective in preventing covid-19 infection.
More than 4.2 million new covid-19 infections and 36 000 covid-19 related deaths were reported in the United States in November, according to Reuters. The hospitalization rate is high, with the highest number of deaths in six months. According to an analysis of state and county public health reports by Reuters, nearly 93000 Americans are hospitalized for covid-19, an increase of 11% in a week, which is twice the number reported a month ago.
U.S. health secretary Alex Azar said Pfizers drugs could be authorized and shipped within days after the FDAs meeting of external consultants on December 10.
May be due to the positive stimulation of vaccine news, the peripheral market experienced overnight shock, opened the rebound market.
Cross year market opening?
According to the previous analysis, the current domestic market environment is better, but the international variables are really unpredictable. On November 30, it suddenly came out that CNOOC was blacklisted by trump, which greatly affected the market sentiment and led to the market diving and the change of index structure. Judging from the trend of Shanghai stock index, if the follow-up rebound is not enough, it will immediately face a 30 minute K-line deviation, which also means that daily line level adjustment may occur at any time. Of course, enough force can also avoid this situation.
Judging from the current situation, trump will certainly not stop before he leaves office. His intention of burying mines on two lines has gradually surfaced, that is, he will continue to put pressure on China economically, and continue to fuel Irans fire militarily. According to Iraqs Arabiya television station, on the evening of November 29, local time, in the Qaim area near the border between Iraq and Syria, the vehicle of the senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Muslim shahdan, was attacked by a UAV. Shahdan and three of his entourage were killed in the attack. At present, Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the news.
Meanwhile, Irans retaliation has begun. According to Yemeni media reports, on November 29 local time, the badr-p ballistic missile launched by the Yemeni husai armed forces at tadwin military camp in Malibu province accurately hit the target and confirmed to have killed seven Saudi soldiers (including two colonels, a major, a captain and three soldiers). On the same day, a military spokesman for the Yemeni husai armed forces announced that a total of 8 Saudi soldiers were killed and 7 injured in the missile strike that day. According to the analysis, husai armed forces are likely to receive operational intelligence and attack instructions from Tehran. If the Middle East falls into chaos again, it is worth paying attention to how the peripheral markets react. After all, the size of Middle East sovereign funds is relatively large. If they need to withdraw funds, both the US market and other markets may face some twists and turns. Analysts believe that the cross year market may exist, but the possibility of smooth sailing may not be great. Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368
If the Middle East falls into chaos again, it is worth paying attention to how the peripheral markets react. After all, the size of Middle East sovereign funds is relatively large. If they need to withdraw funds, both the US market and other markets may face some twists and turns. Analysts believe that the cross year market may exist, but the possibility of smooth sailing may not be great.