Logically speaking, P2P matches inferior assets to unsuitable groups, and the outcome is doomed. On November 29, the person in charge of an asset management company in Shenzhen pointed out to the reporter of time weekly.
After the curtain fell, everything was empty and the ground was in a mess. However, the follow-up problems have not been dealt with perfectly. In August, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the CBRC, publicly said that as of June this year, there are still more than 800 billion yuan of lenders that have not been recovered in the online lending platform.
From the benign retirement of old P2P institutions to zero, the next step may be to increase the recovery of non-performing assets, which I believe is still mainly through judicial channels. On November 30, Huang Ping, a former P2P practitioner and now head of a small loan company in Guangzhou, analyzed to the times weekly.
On the same day, Xu Bei, Executive Deputy Secretary General of the Guangdong Provincial Association of small loan companies, told the times weekly that P2P involves a wide range of people, and it is difficult to define the judiciary. The period of responsibility identification of punishment before the people is very long, and effective recovery generally takes at least three to five years..
On November 21, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council stated that it would seriously investigate and deal with various illegal acts such as fraudulent issuance, false information disclosure, malicious transfer of assets and misappropriation of issuance funds with the attitude of zero tolerance, severely punish all kinds of debt evasion and cancellation, protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, and maintain market fairness and order.
The premise of P2P mode is that the borrowed money can be recovered. In a short period of 13 years, from financial innovation to thunder wave, P2P has finally been eliminated and returned to zero.
In 2009, Yi Fei, a researcher in mutual gold industry, just entered the industry. He recalled to the times weekly that at that time, the scale of P2P industry was only about 100 million yuan, the annual cost of borrowers could reach 70% - 100%, and the annual income of online investors was 30% - 40%.
According to the data of online lending home, the annual turnover of Chinas P2P online lending platform in 2018 was about 1.79 trillion yuan. Yifei believes that the cost of the borrower is gradually falling, the interest rate of investors is 12% - 15%, and that of the borrower is 25% - 30%.
As some platforms illegally absorb public deposits, some platform borrowers do not pay back, so the capital chain is broken.
On November 6, Liu Fushou publicly said in Beijing that the number of P2P online lending institutions in China has dropped from about 5000 during the peak period to three at present. The scale of loans and the number of participants declined for 28 consecutive months.
Behind the tide is invisible hand to prevent financial risks.
On October 23, Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that major achievements have been made in preventing and resolving financial risks, and the risks of shadow banking have continued to narrow. For P2P, there is no bank reserve and interbank lending, and the capital chain is at risk of breaking at any time.
Peak, this industry is too magical. However, Yifei also once thought that as long as we adhere to the standard development, perhaps in 20 years, the industry may be mature and standardized. The interest rate is highly market-oriented, and a small proportion of enterprises will be eliminated every year, and there is a certain competitive clearing capacity.
On November 29, Chen Jinxiang, a former senior executive of a P2P platform in Shenzhen, also believed that in 2014, Internet Finance became a seal, while P2P became the synonym of Internet finance. According to incomplete statistics of online lending Tianyan, in 2014, at least 28 P2P companies obtained a total amount of nearly 3 billion yuan of financing.
Ren Zeping, President of Evergrande Research Institute, said in the report Rethinking P2P from everywhere to zero, that in terms of liquidity, since 2014, the stock market has continued to rise, a large number of P2P funds have turned to the stock market, and the liquidity has been withdrawn; in terms of supervision, policies have been implemented in succession.
In 2016, the wind direction reversed
The deterioration of P2P started from information intermediary to credit intermediary.
A series of events accelerated the exposure and restructuring of P2P industry risks, and at the same time, greatly damaged the confidence of lenders.
However, in the chain of P2P, there are many problems: investors (lenders) are not confident and dont continue to invest; borrowers play the helm and dont pay back money; platform credit collapses; the capital chain breaks down, and the three parts of the chain cycle until the end of the industry.
Chen Jin told the times weekly that under this situation, the policy of the whole industrys retirement has been very clear until last year, but the pace of exit of various regions and platforms has been successively..
Most P2P online lending platforms in China are actually doing credit business. People who would like to borrow money from online lending platforms are basically people who cant borrow money from banks, and they are customers that banks cant look down on. Therefore, risk control is particularly important. Yi Fei analysis.
On November 29, an Internet financier in Guangzhou analyzed to the times weekly that the platform should have taken responsibility in the process of the gradual withdrawal of P2P platforms. P2P cant afford too many bad debts. According to the analysis of industry insiders, the bad debt rate of banking industry cannot exceed 2%, and the normal bad debt rate of P2P is between 3% and 5%.
The majority of the borrowers have the ability to repay the principal and interest at maturity.
Whats worse, once the platform exits or explodes, the lender will lose the willingness to pay back the money, and the situation of not paying back the money often occurs.
The characteristic of Internet finance is composed of tens of millions of people, that is, small amount dispersion. Yi Fei told the times weekly.
Small amount of decentralization increases the collection cost of P2P platform. According to industry insiders, the cost of outsourcing collection is high, accounting for almost 20% - 50%, that is, to recover 1 million yuan and give at least 200000-500000 yuan to collection companies. P2P is also unable to pursue hundreds of people, thousands of people or even tens of thousands of people at the same time. Shen Hou, a former risk control manager of a P2P platform, told the times weekly.
It is expected that the relevant regulatory authorities will do a good job in supporting the crackdown on debt evasion and cancellation, open credit access and litigation acceptance, and improve the asset recovery ratio and reduce the losses of lenders by putting the credit information of online loan dishonest people into the list of dishonest persons subjected to execution. Chen Jin told the times weekly.
P2P has been cleared, but the lessons are worth learning. It has become a consensus that financial innovation can not replace supervision and regulation.
The regulatory authorities have seen the risk of cash loans, and hope that the series of regulatory measures introduced can really be implemented, standardize the development of the industry, and not follow the old path of P2P industry. A senior practitioner told the times weekly.
Long way to recover old debts
Chen Jin believes that even if the normal borrowers are in a profit-making state in the short term, in the long run, they will face the problem of how to deal with the stock of non-performing assets of nearly 800 billion yuan after the platform is cleared.
Lawyer sun Jianzhang told the times weekly that when accepting a lawsuit, the court should first consider whether it is a criminal act (illegally absorbing public deposits). If it is found to be a criminal act, the court will not accept such cases.
It is understood that once P2P explodes, the main body of the platform is put on file, and the platform is paralyzed. After that, the public security system will handle the bad debts.
The above-mentioned Guangzhou mutual fund personage said that the borrowers found by the public security organs in the process of recovery were unable to repay, or could only recover the borrowers with a large amount of arrears.
According to sun Jianzhangs analysis, the practical difficulty of recovering non-performing assets through judicial channels is the complexity of P2P borrowers, including credit loans, car loans and housing loans. If the borrower has physical mortgage, such as car loan, the court can immediately enforce it. But the credit loan has many people, scattered and small amount, so it is difficult for the court to enforce it. Moreover, when the borrowers contract expires, he can claim civil rights. For example, if the borrower borrows 1 million yuan, the platform can only sue for compensation in the court after one year. At this time, the platform has long been Thunderbolt, empty.
To solve this problem, we should not rely on a single judicial organ or investor, but should be a systematic project. If the public security organ can find out the relevant information of the borrower, and then the procuratorate will conduct civil litigation on behalf of P2P or investor, the effect may be better.
It is natural and natural to borrow money to repay money. Shen Yan suggested that the construction of social system should form a deterrent, improve the credit culture, and Laolai should enter the credit reference system, and take this opportunity to do a good job in the personal credit system.
On August 20, this year, the Supreme Peoples court revised the judicial protection upper limit of private lending interest rate to 4 times LPR, that is 15.4%, significantly lower than the previous interest rate benchmark of 24% and 36%. According to Chen Jins analysis, according to the new rules, many borrowers will refuse to repay money on the ground that the interest rate of previous business exceeds the upper limit of the new rules.
Yi Fei said that most P2P platform practitioners, because the legal reminder cycle is too long and uncontrollable, prefer the platform to try to collect by themselves, rather than giving priority to judicial procedures and relying on judicial collection.
On the other hand, if the platform actively collects money, it is easy to be identified as violent collection.
An industry person in Shenzhen told the times weekly that even if it is a P2P platform to recover, the money does not belong to the platform but to the investors. Even if P2P platform is recovered, it is difficult to make up for the broken capital chain.
Thunder has become a reality, P2P recovery of non-performing assets needs top-level design, said the person
If the platform feels that it is difficult to recover itself, selling the non-performing assets at a discount to a third-party non-performing asset disposal company is also a way out. The person in charge of a small loan company in Guangzhou analyzed to the reporter of the times weekly. Where will investors go in the future. Guo Shiliang, a financial observer, believes that for industries with a scale of more than one trillion yuan, investors are expected to take back part of the principal in the future as the platform carries out a benign exit strategy. He said that for many investors, after this investment experience, they will gradually change their original risk preference and asset allocation strategy and either turn to bond funds with lower risks, or to certificates of deposit or monetary funds with lower risks. (Huang Ping, Chen Jin and Shen Hou are pseudonyms in the article) source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of times weekly_ NF4368
If the platform feels that it is difficult to recover itself, selling the non-performing assets at a discount to a third-party non-performing asset disposal company is also a way out. The person in charge of a small loan company in Guangzhou analyzed to the reporter of the times weekly.
Where will investors go in the future.
Guo Shiliang, a financial observer, believes that for industries with a scale of more than one trillion yuan, investors are expected to take back part of the principal in the future as the platform carries out a benign exit strategy. He said that for many investors, after this investment experience, they will gradually change their original risk preference and asset allocation strategy and either turn to bond funds with lower risks, or to certificates of deposit or monetary funds with lower risks.
(Huang Ping, Chen Jin and Shen Hou are pseudonyms)