China Academy of Social Sciences report: the era of house prices only rising but not falling has passed

category:Finance
 China Academy of Social Sciences report: the era of house prices only rising but not falling has passed


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In recent years, Chinas North-South economic differentiation is obvious, and in the northern region, the region also presents a trend of differentiation. The differentiation of regional economy is also reflected in the differentiation of the property market. After the golden nine silver ten, how about the housing prices in northern cities?

According to the price data of Tianjin, Tianjin and Tianjin, the top ten cities in North China are listed as the top ten cities in terms of housing prices Mountain. More than half of the 10 cities are located in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration.

Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei account for half of the top ten

According to the data, the average unit price of Beijing reached 63554 yuan per square meter in the northern region, ranking second among all cities in the country.

After Beijing, Tianjin, another municipality directly under the central government, has an average unit price of 26397 yuan per square meter, ranking second and ninth among cities in China. Qingdaos average unit price also exceeded 20000 yuan per square meter, reaching 21490 yuan, ranking third in northern China and 14th in China.

Jinan, Dalian and Xian, the three sub provincial cities, all exceeded 15000 yuan per square meter, ranking fourth to sixth. Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei Province, and Langfang, which is close to Beijing, are the seventh and eighth largest cities from Hebei Province. In addition, Tangshan, also from Hebei Province, ranks tenth in the north. In other words, three of the top ten housing prices in the North come from Hebei, which is economically underdeveloped. In addition, Qinhuangdao from Hebei Province ranked 12th in the north and Cangzhou ranked 18th in the north.

According to Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, several cities in Hebei Province are mainly located in the region around Beijing, which is more affected by Beijings purchasing power spillover. Zhang Dawei said that, unlike many third and fourth tier cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong, the cities with high housing prices in northern China are mainly concentrated in the central cities in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the Yellow River Basin.

Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration is one of the three major urban agglomerations in China, with strong overall purchasing power. Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Xian and Jinan are all trillion or quasi trillion cities in the Yellow River Basin. Among them, Qingdao, Jinan and Xian are all sub provincial cities, and Xian and Zhengzhou are national central cities. The overall economic strength of these cities is in the forefront of the northern region.

Taking Zhengzhou as an example, Professor Geng Mingzhai, honorary Dean of the school of economics of Henan University, believes that Zhengzhou is the largest transportation hub in the whole northern inland area and has the broadest hinterland. With the arrival of the stage of smooth internal circulation and consumption driven growth, Zhengzhous two advantages will inevitably lead to the sustained, large-scale aggregation of elements and the expansion of urban scale.

In terms of regional distribution, only Dalian, with four sub provincial cities, ranks the top ten in terms of housing prices in the north. Yi Baozhong, a professor of Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, believes that real estate development is closely related to the economic development situation. The industrial development in Northeast China is weak and the population outflow, so there is no population and urbanization to support the real estate development.

Compared with the southern region, the housing price level in northern cities is much lower. For example, Tangshan, which ranks tenth in the north in terms of housing prices, ranks 41st in China, that is to say, it ranks about 31 in the south.

According to Zhang Bo, President of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, from the perspective of strong economic provinces and regions, they are mostly distributed in the East and south, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Dawan district and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Secondly, from the Hu Huanyong line, which represents the population density, the population of Southeast China is also obviously the main force. In the past two years of people grabbing war, the population attraction of the south is also stronger than that of the north.

Zhang Bo said that due to the good economic development force and population advantage, the supporting force of housing prices in southern China is generally stronger. The essence of house price is still affected by the relationship between supply and demand. The housing price in southern China is the actual embodiment of the overall demand performance.

Of course, in addition to economic development factors, climate, physical and geographical conditions are also factors affecting housing prices. For example, in terms of climate, the South has a warm climate, including tropical and subtropical coastal areas such as Hainan, Pearl River Delta and Xiamen, attracting many Northerners to spend the winter or provide for the aged. But the sea view room in the northern area does not have this function. For example, the Seaview house in Rushan Yintan, Weihai City, Shandong Province, has attracted a large number of buyers from all over the country in the past ten years. Ten years ago, the house price of Yintan reached more than 4000 yuan per square meter. After so many years, the house price did not rise but fell.

In addition, many places in the north are dominated by state-owned enterprises, with early industrialization and a large proportion of non commercialized housing. For example, after the new century, the resource-based cities in Northeast China, with the support of relevant policies and subsidies, have carried out continuous transformation of the subsidence areas, and built many houses. In contrast, there are fewer such houses in southern China, and the proportion of market-oriented houses is much higher.

House prices fall, and there are four rumors about the lifting of the purchase restriction in many northern cities

Since the beginning of this year, the differentiation of the property market is very obvious. While the rise in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, many cities in the Yellow River Basin, North China and Northeast China are facing downward pressure.

According to the sales price change data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2020 released by the National Bureau of statistics, in October, Jinans second-hand housing fell by 0.3% month on month, 2.7% year-on-year; Qingdaos second-hand housing fell by 0.4% month on month, 2.8% year-on-year; Zhengzhou, 0.2%, 4.5%; Tianjin, 0.1%, 4.2%; Taiyuan, 0.4% 5%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; Shijiazhuang fell by 0.4% on a month on month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; Hohhot fell by 0.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%.

In Northeast China, Changchun fell 0.5% month on month and Harbin fell 0.4% month on month.

With the decline of house prices, rumors of loosening or relaxing the restrictions on purchase have been heard from time to time in some northern cities. Previously, in October, it was rumored in Tianjin that foreign customers are uniformly declared by enterprises, and they can enjoy the same qualification of purchasing houses by Tianjin citizens without settling down.. However, Tianjin officials later denied the rumor.

In Zhengzhou, recently, there are rumors that Zhengzhou household registration can be relaxed to buy the third set, and the foreign household registration can be relaxed to buy the second set. However, according to media reports, relevant people of Zhengzhou housing security and real estate administration bureau said: no relevant notice has been received, and the official information shall prevail.

Compared with Zhengzhou and Tianjin, the northern cities have taken the lead in loosening the ties. On November 18, according to local media reports in Harbin, in order to seriously implement the relevant national, provincial and municipal decisions and arrangements, and support real estate and construction enterprises to actively cope with the difficulties caused by the epidemic to enterprises production and operation under the premise of epidemic prevention and control, Harbin will issue the notice on relevant policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the citys real estate market during the epidemic period Fourteen supporting measures, which clearly encourage real estate enterprises to sell new commercial housing by discount promotion, group purchase and other ways; at the same time, provident fund loan projects should be submitted for approval at any time.

Ding Changfa, associate professor of Economics Department of Xiamen University, analyzes that the property market differentiation between cities and regions is closely related to its own industrial development. In recent years, the emerging industries in southern China have developed better. The driving role of high-tech industries and emerging industries to the region is increasing. These industries gather more high-end talents, the population inflow is faster, and the purchasing power and purchasing power are stronger.

However, Zhang Bo believes that the future long-term development of the economically strong cities and provincial capital cities in the north can not be ignored, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Dalian, Zhengzhou, Jinan and other cities will still have a long-term attraction to the population of the northern region. In addition, with the demands of improving the competitiveness of core cities, the real estate market will continue to develop orderly and healthy in the long term.

Source: China News Network Editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619