Due to the end of 2019, cities with GDP in the range of 800 billion yuan are out of service. Therefore, the above 24 cities can be regarded as the first echelon of Chinese cities (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan).
The proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035 (hereinafter referred to as the proposal for the 14th five year plan) issued on November 3, put forward a certain target of per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries by 2035.
It should be noted that moderately developed countries is not a general international concept. The world bank uses gross national income per capita (GNI) to measure the type of an economy (low-income, low-income, middle-income and high-income), and has raised the high-income standard from $12375 in 2019 to $12535.
Due to the small difference between Chinas GDP and GNI, the per capita GDP is replaced by the per capita GNI for the convenience of data acquisition. In 2019, Chinas per capita GDP is $10300, but among the 24 cities with a GDP of trillion yuan and quasi trillion yuan, 23 cities have a per capita GDP of more than 12500 US dollars, meeting the high-income standard, which can be called high-income cities.
We need to pay attention to this confusing concept. High income is to measure the level of urban development by the standard of per capita GDP, not by the standard of per capita income.
The 21st century economic research institute uses this method to further classify high-income cities. By the end of 2019, there are 10 cities in China whose per capita GDP is between 15000 and 20000 US dollars, and 10 cities are more than 20000 US dollars.
Among them, Shenzhen ranked first, close to the standard of 30000 US dollars. Chongqing is the only city in the 24 cities that has not crossed the threshold of high income.
The highest number of high-income cities in the Yangtze River Delta
The first echelon of high-income cities with a per capita GDP of 20000 US dollars is Shenzhen, Wuxi, Suzhou, Nanjing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Ningbo, all of which belong to the eastern region except Wuhan. Among them, there are three cities in Jiangsu, and two cities in Guangdong and Zhejiang respectively.
The second tier of high-income cities with a per capita GDP of US $15000-20000, including 10 cities in Changsha, Foshan, Nantong, Qingdao, Fuzhou, Hefei, Quanzhou, Dongguan, Zhengzhou and Jinan, are also concentrated in the central and eastern regions. Fujian and Guangdong provinces have two cities on the list.
There are three cities with per capita GDP between us $12500 and US $15000, namely Chengdu, Xian and Tianjin, which are the third tier. Although Chengdu and Xian both cross the high income threshold, none of the western cities is on the list in the first two echelons.
Guangdong and Jiangsu are the big winners, with four cities on the list. The two cities compete fiercely. Shenzhen of Guangdong ranks first, while Wuxi, Suzhou and Nanjing of Jiangsu rank second, third and fourth.
In terms of urban agglomeration, high-income cities are mostly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, including Wuxi, Suzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Nantong, which shows the great development momentum of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the background of economic cluster and industrial division characterized by urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta region will gain greater breakthrough space driven by high-income cities.
Chongqing and Chengdu, the two core cities in the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration, one failed to make the list, and the other ranked third from the bottom. Together with Tianjin, which ranked the top 10 in GDP, they did not perform well in the ranking of high-income cities.
According to the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, the large population is one of the major factors affecting the ranking of the above cities. The permanent residents of Chongqing, Chengdu and Tianjin are 31.2432 million, 16.581 million and 15.6183 million respectively. In addition to Shanghai and Beijing, these three cities have the highest population size among the cities with a GDP of trillion.
But population is not the only factor that determines whether a city enters a high-income stage. For example, among the 38 districts and counties in Chongqing, the GDP of 18 districts and counties does not exceed 50 billion yuan in 2019, which shows that how to promote the economic growth of districts and counties is the key to whether Chongqing can become a high-income city.
Population and economic needs grow simultaneously
Taking Chengdu City as an example, in 2016, the city took charge of Jianyang City, which was originally Ziyang City. The most direct performance is that its population and economic aggregate increased significantly in that year.
The growth of population size also has an inhibitory effect on the growth of Chengdus per capita GDP. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute analyzed the relationship between GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate of Chengdu from 2014 to 2019. In these five years, the average growth rate of Chengdus GDP was 8.07%, but the average growth rate of per capita GDP was 6.73%. This shows that, after taking charge of Jianyang City, how to give full play to the advantages of new land, population and other advantages to drive the growth of per capita GDP is the key for Chengdu to move towards a higher level and high-income city.
One of the reasons why Wuxi, Nanjing and Ningbo rank high among the high-income cities is that the scale of permanent residents is relatively low. Among the cities with a per capita GDP of more than US $20000, only these three cities have not exceeded the threshold of 10 million people.
However, due to the introduction of a series of talent attraction policies in each city, the total permanent population of the three cities is expected to continue to grow. For example, the permanent resident population of Nanjing in 2019 is 8.555 million, an increase of 69300 compared with 8.4362 million in 2018. The increase exceeds Suzhou and Wuxi, ranking first in Jiangsu Province. Wuxi also increases its permanent resident population by 17000 in 2019.
Since this year, the growth rate of Nanjing has maintained positive growth in each quarter, showing strong development toughness. GDP growth rates in the first, second and third quarters were 1.6%, 2.2% and 3.3%, respectively. Since the second quarter, it has maintained the first economic growth rate of trillion cities.
Although Ningbos economic aggregate and resident population rank low among high-income cities, the development of Ningbo in 2019 shows that the city still has strong competitiveness. The total economic volume of the city ranks 12th in China, up 3 places compared with that in 2018; its export volume ranks the fifth in China, and 11 national manufacturing industry single champions have been added, with a total of 39, ranking the first in China. Similar to Ningbo, Wuxi has obvious advantages.
Shenzhen will take the lead in breaking through $30000
Among the 23 high-income cities, Shenzhen is expected to increase its per capita GDP to more than 30000 US dollars at the beginning of the 14th five year plan.
Before that, Shenzhen has put forward the target of GDP exceeding 4 trillion yuan in 2025, and the GDP growth target of 6.5% has been put forward in the work report of Shenzhen Municipal Government in 2020. If 6.5% is taken as the annual growth target of Shenzhen in the next five years, the GDP of Shenzhen is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan and the per capita GDP will reach 35000 US dollars by 2025. Compared with the standard of the world bank, Shenzhen has been ranked in the 20-30 range of high-income economies.
In the future, how should high-income cities learn from Shenzhen in order to form a joint force and promote the overall growth of Chinas economy?
At present, many high-income cities have proposed the development prospect during the 14th five year plan period, so as to further enhance the vitality of economic development.
Guangzhou proposes to strengthen the regional core engine function, strive to build a new global economic highland, build an international comprehensive transportation hub, an international business center, a regional financial center, a comprehensive national science center and a regional innovation highland.
Wuhan proposes to speed up the construction of the core city, National Central City and international metropolis of the Yangtze River economic belt, and build a national economic center, a high-level scientific and technological innovation center, a science and technology financial center, a business logistics center and an international communication center.
However, it should be noted that per capita GDP is only one of the characteristics of a city entering high income.
In the 14th five year plan, in addition to GDP per capita reaching the level of moderately developed countries, there are also statements such as significant expansion of middle-income groups, equalization of basic public services, and significant narrowing of urban-rural regional development gap and residents living standard gap.
According to the data of disposable income and consumption expenditure of all residents, there is a big difference in high-income cities with per capita GDP of more than US $20000. In the ranking of disposable income of all residents, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou have broken through the threshold of 60000 yuan, while Guangzhou and Wuhan are in the range of 40000 yuan; in terms of per capita consumption expenditure, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Hangzhou are in the range of 40000 yuan, while other cities are in the range of 30000 yuan. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that Chinas urbanization rate has reached 60.6%. In order to gather economy and population in an efficient way, take the lead in realizing high-quality development, become the main body of the new pattern of dual cycle development, and reflect national competitiveness, more cities need to cross the middle-income stage and join the ranks of high-income cities. Crossing the high income threshold is not the end point. In the future, 23 high-income cities need to increase residents income, promote the growth of public services including education, health care, transportation, and make greater breakthroughs in promoting urban-rural integration. Source: 21st century economic report author: Li Guo, editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that Chinas urbanization rate has reached 60.6%. In order to gather economy and population in an efficient way, take the lead in realizing high-quality development, become the main body of the new pattern of dual cycle development, and reflect national competitiveness, more cities need to cross the middle-income stage and join the ranks of high-income cities.
Crossing the high income threshold is not the end point. In the future, 23 high-income cities need to increase residents income, promote the growth of public services including education, health care, transportation, and make greater breakthroughs in promoting urban-rural integration.