The proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035 (hereinafter referred to as the proposal for the 14th five year plan) issued on November 3, put forward a certain target of per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries by 2035.
It should be noted that moderately developed countries is not a general international concept. The world bank uses gross national income per capita (GNI) to measure the type of an economy (low-income, low-income, middle-income and high-income), and has raised the high-income standard from $12375 in 2019 to $12535.
We need to pay attention to this confusing concept. High income is to measure the level of urban development by the standard of per capita GDP, not by the standard of per capita income.
According to the world banks ranking of high-income economies, it can be further divided into two categories: the per capita GDP of 15000-20000 US dollars and more than 20000 US dollars.
The 21st century economic research institute uses this method to further classify high-income cities. By the end of 2019, there are 10 cities in China whose per capita GDP is between 15000 and 20000 US dollars, and 10 cities are more than 20000 US dollars.
Among them, Shenzhen ranked first, close to the standard of 30000 US dollars. Chongqing is the only city in the 24 cities that has not crossed the threshold of high income.
The highest number of high-income cities in the Yangtze River Delta
Among the 24 cities with trillion or quasi trillion GDP, which have crossed the middle-income and entered the high-income threshold?
According to the standard of per capita GDP of US $12500, all the 24 cities except Chongqing have reached the standard of high-income cities.
The first echelon of high-income cities with a per capita GDP of 20000 US dollars is Shenzhen, Wuxi, Suzhou, Nanjing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Ningbo, all of which belong to the eastern region except Wuhan. Among them, there are three cities in Jiangsu, and two cities in Guangdong and Zhejiang respectively.
The second tier of high-income cities with a per capita GDP of US $15000-20000, including 10 cities in Changsha, Foshan, Nantong, Qingdao, Fuzhou, Hefei, Quanzhou, Dongguan, Zhengzhou and Jinan, are also concentrated in the central and eastern regions. Fujian and Guangdong provinces have two cities on the list.
There are three cities with per capita GDP between us $12500 and US $15000, namely Chengdu, Xian and Tianjin, which are the third tier. Although Chengdu and Xian both cross the high income threshold, none of the western cities is on the list in the first two echelons.
Guangdong and Jiangsu are the big winners, with four cities on the list. The two cities compete fiercely. Shenzhen of Guangdong ranks first, while Wuxi, Suzhou and Nanjing of Jiangsu rank second, third and fourth.
In terms of urban agglomeration, high-income cities are mostly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, including Wuxi, Suzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Nantong, which shows the great development momentum of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the background of economic cluster and industrial division characterized by urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta region will gain greater breakthrough space driven by high-income cities.
Chongqing and Chengdu, the two core cities in the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration, one failed to make the list, and the other ranked third from the bottom. Together with Tianjin, which ranked the top 10 in GDP, they did not perform well in the ranking of high-income cities.
According to the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, the large population is one of the major factors affecting the ranking of the above cities. The permanent residents of Chongqing, Chengdu and Tianjin are 31.2432 million, 16.581 million and 15.6183 million respectively. In addition to Shanghai and Beijing, these three cities have the highest population size among the cities with a GDP of trillion.
But population is not the only factor that determines whether a city enters a high-income stage. For example, among the 38 districts and counties in Chongqing, the GDP of 18 districts and counties does not exceed 50 billion yuan in 2019, which shows that how to promote the economic growth of districts and counties is the key to whether Chongqing can become a high-income city.
Population and economic needs grow simultaneously
In recent years, some cities have further enlarged the urban economy and population scale by annexing the surrounding cities, but they will also pay a certain price accordingly.
Taking Chengdu City as an example, in 2016, the city took charge of Jianyang City, which was originally Ziyang City. The most direct performance is that its population and economic aggregate increased significantly in that year.
The growth of population size also has an inhibitory effect on the growth of Chengdus per capita GDP. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute analyzed the relationship between GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate of Chengdu from 2014 to 2019. In these five years, the average growth rate of Chengdus GDP was 8.07%, but the average growth rate of per capita GDP was 6.73%. This shows that, after taking charge of Jianyang City, how to give full play to the advantages of new land, population and other advantages to drive the growth of per capita GDP is the key for Chengdu to move towards a higher level and high-income city.
However, due to the introduction of a series of talent attraction policies in each city, the total permanent population of the three cities is expected to continue to grow. For example, the permanent resident population of Nanjing in 2019 is 8.555 million, an increase of 69300 compared with 8.4362 million in 2018. The increase exceeds Suzhou and Wuxi, ranking first in Jiangsu Province. Wuxi also increases its permanent resident population by 17000 in 2019.
Although Ningbos economic aggregate and resident population rank low among high-income cities, the development of Ningbo in 2019 shows that the city still has strong competitiveness. The total economic volume of the city ranks 12th in China, up 3 places compared with that in 2018; its export volume ranks the fifth in China, and 11 national manufacturing industry single champions have been added, with a total of 39, ranking the first in China. Similar to Ningbo, Wuxi has obvious advantages.
Shenzhen will take the lead in breaking through $30000
Among the 23 high-income cities, Shenzhen is expected to increase its per capita GDP to more than 30000 US dollars at the beginning of the 14th five year plan.
Before that, Shenzhen has put forward the target of GDP exceeding 4 trillion yuan in 2025, and the GDP growth target of 6.5% has been put forward in the work report of Shenzhen Municipal Government in 2020. If 6.5% is taken as the annual growth target of Shenzhen in the next five years, the GDP of Shenzhen is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan and the per capita GDP will reach 35000 US dollars by 2025. Compared with the standard of the world bank, Shenzhen has been ranked in the 20-30 range of high-income economies.
Shenzhen has more than that. Among the 10 cities with a per capita GDP of more than US $2 million, Shenzhen ranks first in 2019 with a unit GDP output intensity of 1.348 billion yuan per square kilometer, followed by Shanghai and Guangzhou, which are 600 million yuan / square kilometer and 300 million yuan / square kilometer respectively, and the remaining seven cities have been widened.
At present, many high-income cities have proposed the development prospect during the 14th five year plan period, so as to further enhance the vitality of economic development.
Suzhou proposes to build a c-city with services integrated into the national strategy, a model city for opening up in the new era, a preferred city for international and domestic capital investment, an active city with high-end innovation elements, a head city with more prominent geographical advantages, a compact city with intensive and smart growth, and a resilient city that can resist risks and meet challenges u3002
Guangzhou proposes to strengthen the regional core engine function, strive to build a new global economic highland, build an international comprehensive transportation hub, an international business center, a regional financial center, a comprehensive national science center and a regional innovation highland.
It is proposed to speed up the construction of Wuhan as a science and technology center, a national science and technology center, an international trade and Trade Center, and a national economic and trade center along the Yangtze River.
However, it should be noted that per capita GDP is only one of the characteristics of a city entering high income.
In the 14th five year plan, in addition to GDP per capita reaching the level of moderately developed countries, there are also statements such as significant expansion of middle-income groups, equalization of basic public services, and significant narrowing of urban-rural regional development gap and residents living standard gap.
According to the data of disposable income and consumption expenditure of all residents, there is a big difference in high-income cities with per capita GDP of more than US $20000. In the ranking of disposable income of all residents, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou have broken through the threshold of 60000 yuan, while Guangzhou and Wuhan are in the range of 40000 yuan; in terms of per capita consumption expenditure, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Hangzhou are in the range of 40000 yuan, while other cities are in the range of 30000 yuan. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that Chinas urbanization rate has reached 60.6%. In order to gather economy and population in an efficient way, take the lead in realizing high-quality development, become the main body of the new pattern of dual cycle development, and reflect national competitiveness, more cities need to cross the middle-income stage and join the ranks of high-income cities. Crossing the high income threshold is not the end point. In the future, 23 high-income cities need to increase residents income, promote the growth of public services including education, health care, transportation, and make greater breakthroughs in promoting urban-rural integration. Source: 21st century economic report author: Li Guo, editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
According to the data of disposable income and consumption expenditure of all residents, there is a big difference in high-income cities with per capita GDP of more than US $20000. In the ranking of disposable income of all residents, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou have broken through the threshold of 60000 yuan, while Guangzhou and Wuhan are in the range of 40000 yuan; in terms of per capita consumption expenditure, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Hangzhou are in the range of 40000 yuan, while other cities are in the range of 30000 yuan.
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that Chinas urbanization rate has reached 60.6%. In order to gather economy and population in an efficient way, take the lead in realizing high-quality development, become the main body of the new pattern of dual cycle development, and reflect national competitiveness, more cities need to cross the middle-income stage and join the ranks of high-income cities.
Crossing the high income threshold is not the end point. In the future, 23 high-income cities need to increase residents income, promote the growth of public services including education, health care, transportation, and make greater breakthroughs in promoting urban-rural integration.