It is reported that Guo shuqingfa, Secretary of the Party committee of the peoples Bank of China and chairman of the CIRC, has pointed out that real estate is deeply related to the financial industry, and real estate is the grey rhinoceros with the greatest financial risk at this stage.
And these two days, Shenzhen property market is also hot attention. After the online red disk hit new real estate chaos was named by the central media, Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development responded quickly: it will strictly investigate the act of holding real estate on behalf of others, and is studying further regulatory policies. This is also interpreted by the market as a clear signal that the government is ready to cool down the booming property market.
However, on the same day, near midday, the decline of the real estate index narrowed again, leading stocks were the first to float red. Institutions believe that in the pro cyclical tuyere, the valuation of leading real estate enterprises is still in the low stage.
On Tuesday, when the A-share market recovered significantly, the real estate sector known as elephant stocks also played a squat jump performance.
In the early morning trading of December 1, the three indexes of a shares opened low and went high. The gem index led the market, but the real estate sector with a market value of more than 2 trillion yuan became one of the leading indexes in the opening day.
In the morning of the same day, the real estate index opened low and went down rapidly. Within 20 minutes of opening, the index quickly fell by more than 1.5%, and the market value evaporated by about 30 billion yuan.
*St Songjiang and * ST Haichuang B decreased by nearly 4%. The opening of the morning fell, real estate enterprises once more than 100.
Within the plate, real estate leading Vanke A and Poly Real Estate fell by about 2%. But near the end of the day, the two big heads are both red, driving the index to climb out of the pit.
In the morning of the same day, the real estate sector traded nearly 10 billion yuan, with more than 77 floating red real estate stocks.
It is worth noting that since this year, the real estate sector has been performing poorly. The data shows that in the past year, the real estate index has only increased by about 8%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by nearly 30% in the same period, which has greatly lost the market.
In particular, in recent three months, the real estate sector is down more than 4%. This also means that the real estate sector is one of the few sectors in the market that did not rise significantly in the near future.
Guo Shuqings essay on grey rhinoceros
Has repeatedly warned against the risk of real estate bubble
It is not difficult to find that the real estate sector in the capital market once adjusted, which is actually related to the frequent high-level voice.
Recently, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party committee of the peoples Bank of China and chairman of the CIRC, recently published an article improving the modern financial supervision system in the guidance reader.
Guo Shuqing pointed out in the article that the income is always proportional to the risk. At all times and in all over the world, there are always people who hope to obtain higher returns with lower risks, but the law can not be broken. Commitment to low risk and high yield is fraud, and financial regulation should always fight against this kind of behavior.
Guo Shuqing stressed that the real estate bubble should be resolutely suppressed. Real estate is deeply related to the financial industry. At present, Chinas real estate related loans account for 39% of the bank loans, and a large number of bonds, equity, trust and other funds enter the real estate industry. It can be said that real estate is the biggest grey rhinoceros in Chinas financial risk at this stage.
The article said that to prevent and defuse financial risks, we have made substantial breakthroughs in tackling financial risks. The blind expansion of financial assets has been fundamentally reversed. The risk of shadow banking continues to converge, and the bubble of real estate finance has been curbed, and the financial risk of the Internet has dropped sharply. After continuous efforts, financial risks tend to converge and the resilience of the financial system has been significantly enhanced. At the same time, Chinas financial system also faces many challenges and difficulties. We should not only further improve the quality and efficiency of financial services, but also orderly handle key areas, highlight risks, and achieve a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention.
Shenzhen property market is criticized for fighting new chaos
Official response: under investigation!
In addition to high-level voice, Shenzhen property market, which has been concerned by all parties, has also sent out obvious regulatory signals recently.
Last week, Shenzhen net red plate, China Resources City Runxi phase I garden after the public lottery results announced, 1171 suite source all liquidation. It is understood that the most popular house selection site is large-scale, with a total price of more than 20 million yuan. Before this, fund gentleman also once reported, after this net red dish hits new person to subscribe, if succeed, can earn 5 million premium directly from it, this also attracts a lot of people to enter the market to subscribe to hit new.
However, the lively speculation behind the red plate, query voice began to appear. There is a view that the net red disk corresponding to the rigid demand no housing households to buy a house, but the threshold of 10 million levels, is it a real rigid demand? More media pointed out: there are a lot of non home buyers on the site of housing selection, which are not self owned, but on behalf of the owners. There is a new situation of partnership in the new market.
On November 28, Xinhua News Agency reporters published the Xinhua review entitled curbing the new hot in the property market, which requires hard core measures, directly naming the phenomenon of new arbitrage in the newly opened Runxi phase 1 in Shenzhen.
On November 30, Zhang xuefan, director of the Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau and Secretary of the Party group, said in an interview with the media that the government departments are studying comprehensive control policies to resolutely crack down on speculation in the market in view of the current inverted prices of first-hand and second-hand houses and the speculation reflected by the media.
Zhang xuefan made it clear that Shenzhen firmly implements the positioning of the house is for living, not for speculation, firmly implements the central real estate regulation and control policy, and strictly implements the new Shenzhen eight article issued on July 15.
It is also understood that the first phase of China Resources City Runxi phase I of Shenzhen wanghong real estate, as well as the Lishan haijiayuan, which is in the subscription stage, have successively issued relevant proposals on housing and housing without speculation, and remind customers to pay attention to relevant risks.
The arrival of periodic tuyere
Institutions are still optimistic about real estate stocks
Although the real estate market regulation action is continuous, but from the perspective of capital market, real estate stocks are still regarded as one of the plates with value depression.
In July 2018, the high-level officials stressed resolutely curb the rise of house prices, and even in August this year, the central bank once again stressed that real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. Subsequently, the three red lines policy was introduced, and the industry experienced a series of policy repression.
According to the statistics of Huaxi Securities, after the release of the three red line policy, most real estate enterprises tread on the line. According to the third quarter report data of key A-share real estate enterprises, there are 8 real estate enterprises with 3 red lines, 8 with 2 red lines, 7 with 1 red line, and only 5 with one red line.
Nevertheless, the fundamentals of the national property market are still very resilient. According to the previous public data, from January to October this year, the national real estate development investment was 11655.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January September. The sales area of commercial housing was 1332.94 million square meters, which was flat on a year-on-year basis, with a decrease of 1.8% from January to September.
At present, all funds in the market are concerned about the pro cyclical tuyere, and many institutions have also clearly pointed out that the valuation of the pro cyclical sector is gradually being repaired. The real estate sector, as one of the sectors with strong performance certainty and the lowest growth rate in the year, is seriously undervalued.
Shanxi Securities pointed out that the market share of the industrys leading and second-line leading companies has kept rising, and the performance in the next two years can basically maintain a stable growth. Low valuation and high performance certainty make most industry leaders and some second-line leaders have a higher margin of safety. Investors can still pay attention to Vanke A, Poly Real estate, China Merchants Shekou, Jindi group, Jindi group and other industry leaders and second-line leaders.
Huaxi Securities said that looking back on 2020, the policy keynote was loose first and then tight. Affected by the epidemic situation and macro environment, the market expectations were disturbed to some extent. At present, the real estate industry is gradually changing from scale oriented to profit oriented, and the logic of industry concentration will continue.
According to wind data, the current P / E ratio of real estate is 10.46 times, close to the median of 10.14.
Source: China Fund News Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368