As one of the leading Pro cyclical industries, non-ferrous metal futures represented by copper and aluminum have risen 58% and 43% respectively since coming out of the low point in late March this year, drawing a beautiful upward curve. On November 30, the price of Shanghai coppers main contract reached 57790 yuan / ton, a new high since February 2013; the highest price of Shanghai aluminums main contract reached 16600 yuan / ton, a new high since November 2017.
Cui Lei, manager of China Southern nonferrous metals ETF fund, said that under the resonance of economic recovery, inflation and inventory reduction, as well as the synchronous improvement of external demand and corporate profits, nonferrous metals prices have the power to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, with the continuous recovery of global consumption, non-ferrous metals gradually enter the active replenishment stage in the inventory cycle. Therefore, after this years supply driven rise, nonferrous metals are expected to start the demand driven rise in the first half of next year.
Led by non-ferrous metals, crude oil, steel, coal, soybean meal, etc. have risen in succession since the fourth quarter, adding bricks and mortar to this round of commodity bull market. Caixin Securities Research Report shows that the driving force of this round of commodity demand is super large-scale monetary easing and global manufacturing replenishment inventory cycle, which has certain sustainability, but there will be some differentiation in the future market, and the price rise of products with good supply and demand pattern is more certain. Goldman Sachs, CICC, CITIC and other institutions recently released research reports saying that they are optimistic about the performance of commodities in 2021.
Since the third quarter, gold and silver fell in shock, weaker than the performance of industrial metals, but a fund manager believes that this round of gold bull market is not over. Judging from the historical trend, the gold market is generally a major trend, and a bull market often takes about 10 years. If this round of gold market is only four years from 2016, there is still room for growth in the long run. However, gold price is easily affected by events, so the selection of configuration point is very important. Silver, by contrast, is much more resilient than gold. In general, gold and silver are investment targets worthy of continuous attention.
Commodity futures ETF is a good configuration tool
In Dacheng nonferrous metal futures ETF fund manager Li Shaos view, the introduction of commodity futures ETF has enriched the choice of investors. He said that as a special investment category, commodities occupy an important position in the investment clock of Merrill Lynch, and the correlation with stocks, bonds and other assets is extremely low, even negative correlation. In fact, in the past four years, iron ore, crude oil, non-ferrous metals, gold and other commodities have performed significantly better than a shares.
In addition, Li Shao said that commodity futures ETFs track the prices of physical assets, and their anti inflation effect is obvious in the context of monetary easing. In addition, from the institutional level, commodity futures ETF solves the discriminatory constraints of many funds on futures in the allocation of large types of assets. As a standard on-the-spot ETF products, commodity futures ETF meets the pool entry standards of banks, insurance, bank outsourcing funds and public offering fofs, which can meet its allocation requirements, and solve the long-standing problem of visible and inedible for such funds in the bulk commodity market. In the future, it will become the matching and matching choice for large categories of assets.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607