Cui Lei, manager of China Southern nonferrous metals ETF fund, said that under the resonance of economic recovery, inflation and inventory reduction, as well as the synchronous improvement of external demand and corporate profits, nonferrous metals prices have the power to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, with the continuous recovery of global consumption, non-ferrous metals gradually enter the active replenishment stage in the inventory cycle. Therefore, after this years supply driven rise, nonferrous metals are expected to start the demand driven rise in the first half of next year.
Since the third quarter, gold and silver fell in shock, weaker than the performance of industrial metals, but a fund manager believes that this round of gold bull market is not over. Judging from the historical trend, the gold market is generally a major trend, and a bull market often takes about 10 years. If this round of gold market is only four years from 2016, there is still room for growth in the long run. However, gold price is easily affected by events, so the selection of configuration point is very important. Silver, by contrast, is much more resilient than gold. In general, gold and silver are investment targets worthy of continuous attention.
Commodity futures ETF is a good configuration tool
Commodity funds took the lead in rising prices. However, from the perspective of low cost, transparent operation and close tracking index, the commodity futures ETF which has been greatly expanded in recent two years is undoubtedly a better configuration tool. According to public information, at the end of 2018, there were only five commodity ETFs, and the categories were only gold and silver. In 2019, three ETFs including soybean meal, nonferrous metals and energy chemical industry will come out one after another, and another seven gold ETFs will join in 2020. By the third quarter of 2020, the scale of commodity ETF has expanded to 48.14 billion yuan.
Rong Ying, senior vice president of Huaxia Fund quantity investment department and manager of soybean meal ETF fund, said that from the perspective of product design, commodity futures ETF is a kind of inclusive financial instrument for ordinary investors. In her view, commodity futures ETF has three major characteristics: first, as a long passive tracking index, investment transparency and clarity. Second, there is no need for investors to really have a very strong operational ability in futures, and there is no risk of rollover as in futures contracts. The third is to maintain the advantages of ETF itself. As long as it can be traded through securities accounts, the minimum number of ETFs is 100. It is a low threshold, transparent and convenient product.
In Dacheng nonferrous metal futures ETF fund manager Li Shaos view, the introduction of commodity futures ETF has enriched the choice of investors. He said that as a special investment category, commodities occupy an important position in the investment clock of Merrill Lynch, and the correlation with stocks, bonds and other assets is extremely low, even negative correlation. In fact, in the past four years, iron ore, crude oil, non-ferrous metals, gold and other commodities have performed significantly better than a shares.
In addition, Li Shao said that commodity futures ETFs track the prices of physical assets, and their anti inflation effect is obvious in the context of monetary easing. In addition, from the institutional level, commodity futures ETF solves the discriminatory constraints of many funds on futures in the allocation of large types of assets. As a standard on-the-spot ETF products, commodity futures ETF meets the pool entry standards of banks, insurance, bank outsourcing funds and public offering fofs, which can meet its allocation requirements, and solve the long-standing problem of visible and inedible for such funds in the bulk commodity market. In the future, it will become the matching and matching choice for large categories of assets.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607