Chinas urban landscape changes dramatically, there will be only one top 10 in the north this year

category:Finance
 Chinas urban landscape changes dramatically, there will be only one top 10 in the north this year


In this way, there is only one top 10 in Beijing in the north. This is a very shocking thing. Because the history of the past 100 years has never happened, which can be said to be a great change that has not taken place in a hundred years.

If you list the top ten, compare them one by one. You will be surprised to find that, except Beijing and Shanghai, the total GDP of cities in the south is almost twice that of the corresponding cities in the north.

Considering the huge size of Chinas cities, twice is a huge gap. This may mean that the gap between Chinas north and South has reached its most severe moment.

Not long ago, the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee deliberated and adopted the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, which specifically mentioned optimizing the spatial distribution of land.

The disparity between the rich and the poor among regions has always been a matter of great concern at the top. This is not only the promise of rich first and then rich, but also related to the historical process of great power rejuvenation.

Regional balance is really urgent!

The gap between North and south is a very easy concept to be ignored. Its not because it doesnt exist, but because its been around for so long, even for thousands of years.

Since the Tang Dynasty, the number of fields in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River is the highest in the world, and the water and rates are all given to the southeast.

Since the Tang Dynasty, every dynasty has tried to change this economic imbalance. However, no matter the elegant Song Dynasty, the strong Yuan Dynasty, or the vast Qing Dynasty, they all failed to turn around.

When we were children, we all learned a physical concept, the center of gravity. It means gravity balance in all directions, so its critical.

Some scholars have converted the economic strength of Chinas various regions into the quality of each point, and found the economic center of gravity for the balance of economic power in Southeast and Northwest China.

Moving westward means catching up with the west, while moving southward means that the South continues to be strong, that is, the decline of the north. As can be seen from the figure, compared with the East-West saw saw, the North-South imbalance trend is more obvious.

Economic data are more intuitive than geographic trajectories.

The climate is an inseparable factor in the gradual decline of northern cities. Climate has a great influence on livability, which affects population migration to a certain extent.

During the period of planned economy, the northern cities supported most of the economy by large projects.

After the reform and opening up, the north can still use the inertia advantage of planned economy and further play the investment to the extreme, so as to balance the short board of economic vitality which is lower than that of the south.

In 1998, the northern economy was booming. Shandong, which has the second largest oil field in China, has returned to the second place of GDP relying on heavy industry. It is more simple and crude for Shanxi to get rich by coal. Shenmu, a small county in Shaanxi Province, can create the first Shenmu mode of free medical treatment for all people in China by virtue of underground mines.

In 2001, with Chinas accession to the WTO, Wenzhou, Quanzhou, Dongguan, Foshan and other ordinary prefecture level cities realized diaosis counter attack through foreign trade. Dongguan also gained the reputation of world factory in this period.

It is worth noting that this round of urban rise is concentrated in the southeast coast. From the perspective of topography, there is no lack of deep-water ports in the north. The Japanese, German and Russian people did not hesitate to fight against each other for the sake of Qingdao, Dalian and other excellent ports, which shows its importance.

On the surface, the North missed the global market, but at the root it missed the opportunity to integrate the domestic market.

The United States has a deeper understanding of this than China. Strictly speaking, the United States is the first country in the world to benefit from internal circulation. Before the revolution of bulk shipping and container, the United States had integrated a huge domestic market with the help of inland shipping.

The Mississippi River and the Missouri River are parallel first and then intersect and run through the north and south. In addition, many tributaries cross the East and West in a diagonal manner. The total length of navigable rivers in the United States is longer than that of other countries in the world.

The longer the waterway is, the deeper the hinterland can be connected and the longer the economic belt will be.

Even New York is envious of the vast market in the Midwest of the United States. Many people think that New York is booming in shipping, but at first New York was no better than Philadelphia, Boston and other Atlantic ports.

What changed New York City was the Erie Canal. The 584 kilometer canal, completed in 1825, was drawn eastward from Lake Erie, one of the five Great Lakes, and eventually connected to the upper reaches of the Hudson River, through which it connects to the Atlantic Ocean.

Since then, New York has realized a rapid direct connection with the Great Lakes region and even the entire Midwest of the United States. It has leapt from a poor feeding port to a hub port for river sea transportation.

Different from the United States, Chinas Yangtze River and Yellow River are all parallel, and they do not form the intersection of the Mississippi River and the Missouri River. From the perspective of river shipping, the opportunity to integrate the north and South markets has been lost.

What is the situation of the Yellow River?

Many southerners do not know that the Yellow River is actually a suspended river. Due to a large amount of sediment accumulation, the downstream riverbed is higher than the ground, which is not conducive to the construction of wharf and port.

The Yellow River is one of the ten longest rivers in the world. Its annual runoff is only 59.2 billion cubic meters, less than one fifth of that of the Pearl River, let alone 985.7 billion cubic meters of the Yangtze River.

The water volume is small, the channel is shallow and the navigation condition is very poor. Nowadays, the Yellow River estuary is silted up too much, and the navigation value of the whole river is ignored.

This is one of the reasons why the northwest is not as good as the southwest.

In the age of navigation, we can see that we can skip the constraints of inland river shipping, but the North has encountered new problems.

After Chinas accession to the WTO, the profit-making cities can be deeply integrated into the global industrial chain because of the convenience of shipping. But its not just coastal areas that have such advantages.

2008 is a landmark year. The global financial crisis has brought great challenges to Chinas economy and profoundly changed Chinas northern and southern territory.

In 1998, Chinas dependence on foreign trade (total trade / GDP) was 31.8%, reaching a historical peak in 2008. But since then, domestic demand has become the focus of Chinas attention, and Chinas dependence on foreign trade will return to 31.8% in 2019.

Source: zero one think tank

After the outbreak of the financial crisis, Chinas economic growth has slowed down, but due to the huge base, the absolute value of Chinas economic growth is still extremely considerable. Today, the output of almost all important industrial products in China ranks first in the world. Different from Germany, Japan and other industrial countries, Chinas main market for a large number of industrial products is not international, but at home.

In 1996, Chinas steel output ranked first in the world. In 2009, Chinas automobile production and sales reached the first in the world. The former can be said to be the precursor of China becoming the factory of the world, while the latter is a sign of the start of domestic demand.

Investment, export and consumption are the three driving forces of the economy. Unfortunately, the north, which is caught up in the path of investment, has fallen behind in consumption after missing out on export by borrowing.

Photo source: Fan Tong Dai

In 2012, the bulk commodities represented by coal and billet plummeted and entered a downward cycle. It was from then on that the northern economic model, which relied on traditional resources and heavy industry, suffered a severe setback.

In the past, where it was close to the upstream resources such as minerals, it could take off because of industry. When consumption rather than production becomes the most important factor affecting economic activities, where there is more active service industry, where there may be better economic performance.

Most of the northern cities are highly dependent on state-owned enterprises in terms of ownership, the vitality of private economy is insufficient, and the remnants of planned economy are too large. In addition, the state has strict environmental protection requirements. For example, Tangshan, which has been among the top 20 cities for a long time, fell out of the top 20 due to the reduction of steel production capacity and environmental protection restrictions. Unfortunately, the cultivation of the three industries can not be achieved overnight. Up to now, Tangshans secondary industry accounts for 57%, while the third industry accounts for only 34%. This index is the only one in the top 25 cities with less than 40%.

There are fewer and fewer cities in the north and middle of gdptop20

Looking back in 2008, manufacturing was the main economic pillar of Chinas major cities. Among the top 20 cities, only four first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have higher proportion of tertiary industry than secondary industry. But by 2019, Foshan is the only city with a higher proportion of secondary industry than tertiary industry.

It is not difficult for us to find a rule. Before 2008, industry and foreign trade determined the strength of cities. After 2008, domestic demand has become the driving force. The population concentration and consumption capacity of a city, as well as the level of tertiary industry behind it, have a greater and greater impact on the city.

This year, the new epidemic hit the world, and the confrontation between China and the United States has been escalating. The great change that has not happened in a hundred years has stirred up a strange situation at home and abroad. In this context, internal circulation has become a high-frequency vocabulary.

There is no doubt that consumption is more important to the national economy under the internal circulation, but this does not mean that there is no opportunity in the north. Consumption is important, but energy security, food security, strategic depth and other issues can not be left behind.

In the age of navigation, the northern port which deviated from the main channel of the world was left behind. But the main channel may not be safe. For example, the Strait of Malacca is the heel of the great powers.

In late July, a ship carrying 144000 tons of light and low sulfur crude oil mined by Gazprom in the North Pole landed at Yantai port, which was the first time that Russia transported oil to China through the Arctic route.

Global warming increases the navigation time of Arctic routes, which adds a lifeline to the energy security of internal circulation.

Another example is that the senior leaders went to Jilin for research this year, and agriculture has become the focus, rather than the industry that northeast China used to be proud of.

The internal circulation also seeks the optimal allocation, and the development of modern agriculture in Northeast China may become an option and a breakthrough besides revitalizing industry. The Northeast has already completed the historical mission of Eastern Ruhr, but the future of Hokkaido in China is still waiting for the northeast to embrace.

Not long ago, the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee deliberated and adopted the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, which specifically mentioned optimizing the spatial distribution of land.

We can say that the southward shift of economic center of gravity is the result of resource allocation, and the market should be respected. However, the state is not completely equal to the enterprise, and the governance of the country is not completely equal to doing business for profit, but also considering the overall strategic situation.

Under the background of economic imbalance between the north and the south, the discussion on the gap between the north and the South can not be simply put in the comparison of the absolute strength of cities. Nowadays, the northern cities urgently need to find a greater mission and strategic positioning. Maybe, its an opportunity. Reference: why is none of Chinas top ten cities along the Yellow River? I see the fatal defects of the Yellow River behind the 14th five year plan: the Yangtze River line at 31 degrees north latitude in Mongkok, which will be unfavorable to Chinas economy. From industrial China to commercial China - Urban Competition 2008 to 2018, yuan Gangong said, why is North China brilliant? Why decline? u300bInstitute of planetary research source: Zhigu trend editor in charge: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

reference material:

Behind the 14th five year plan: the Yangtze River defense line appears at 31 degrees north latitude, which will be unfavorable to Chinas economy

From industrial China to commercial China: urban competition 2008-2018

Why is North China brilliant? Why decline? u300bPlanetary Institute