The price of lithium carbonate has fallen to a historical low before. In September 2020, the real transaction price of battery grade lithium carbonate dropped to about 38000 / T, which is the lowest price since 2015. The price of lithium concentrate once fell below the cash cost of lithium mines in Australia. Since November, the downstream of lithium carbonate continued to warm up, and the price of lithium carbonate began to rise. At present, domestic lithium battery manufacturers are gradually entering the year-end stock stage, and lithium carbonate in some regions is in a tight supply state, and the price is also rising. Pacific Securities expects the price of battery grade lithium carbonate will return to more than 50000 next year.
On the supply side, affected by the oversold, Australias mines experienced substantial production reduction, and some enterprises went bankrupt and stopped production. Australias lithium mine Altura, which accounts for 5% of the global lithium supply capacity, has gone bankrupt and overlapped in winter. The production of salt lakes at home and abroad has been reduced, and the supply of lithium resources is tight. According to the statistics of Guotai Junan Securities, only four of the seven mines in Australia are in normal production, and the lithium concentrate flowing into the market is far from meeting the demand of the smelters in the market for lithium.
The new energy vehicle is in a positive position, and lithium iron phosphate has a significant advantage
Lithium carbonate continued to rebound, thanks to the high prosperity of downstream industries, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 104.5% in October. According to the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) (Draft), the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 25% in 2025, and the corresponding annual output will be 5.546 million. Based on this calculation, the average compound growth rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 29.48% from 2020 to 2025. With the increase of charging capacity of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery, a downstream product of lithium carbonate, is growing rapidly.
Lithium carbonate concept stock list released
According to the statistics of securities times and data treasure, there are 14 A-share listed companies whose main products are lithium carbonate, with an average increase of 19.12% since this month, which has surpassed the market by 13.93%. Among them, 7 companies increased by more than 20%, and * ST jiangte ranked first with a monthly increase of 42.31%. Tianqi lithium industry, Tibet Mining Industry and Ganfeng lithium industry ranked first, with an increase of 40.56%, 40.24% and 28.58% respectively.
Ganfeng lithium industry is a leading enterprise in lithium carbonate plate, with a total market value of 85.447 billion yuan. The companys project with an annual output of 40000 tons of lithium carbonate is expected to be put into operation in the middle of 2021, and the capacity of lithium carbonate will double next year. In the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.506 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 174 million yuan, an increase of 421.32% year-on-year, partly due to the release of capacity and sales growth of battery plate, among which TWS battery showed outstanding performance, with a daily output of 100000-120000.
In terms of performance, Tianci materials, * ST jiangte and Yahua group ranked the top in terms of growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the three quarters increased by 475.85%, 229.99% and 85.89% respectively. In the first three quarters, the operating revenue of Yahua group was 2.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.41%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 194 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. The growth in the third quarter was mainly due to the production of battery grade lithium carbonate (lithium hydroxide), which further improved the performance of lithium industry plate. In terms of lithium industry, the companys phase I 20000 ton production line has been put into operation. At present, the construction arrangement of phase II 20000 ton production line has been started. After completion, it will have a comprehensive lithium salt design capacity of more than 60000 tons. (Liu Junling, databao)