Shanghai index is expected to challenge a new high in the year! Are you counting money or weeping quietly?

category:Finance
 Shanghai index is expected to challenge a new high in the year! Are you counting money or weeping quietly?


Within the brokerage plate, CICC touched the trading limit, and the share price reached a new high. The trading limit of Guosheng financial holding and Zhongtai securities increased by more than 8%.

Banks, insurance and other financial products with large market value have been paid close attention to by funds for nearly a week. Shenwan Hongyuan securities bluntly said that cyclical rotation is the main theme of the current structure selection, and the rise of interest rate is the best reason for banks to rise. In the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, the upward trend of weighted average interest rate of loans and the expectation that the growth rate of bank stocks will hit the bottom and pick up are enough to support the medium and short-term upward trend of bank stocks.

The biggest beneficiaries of this round of changes are not only big financial sectors such as banks and securities companies, but also derivatives related to Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index perform well. A number of contracts rose more than 100% in a single day.

In terms of funds, northward capital inflow for four consecutive weeks, reappearance of large net buying on Monday morning. As of the midday closing, the total net purchases of northbound funds exceeded 8 billion yuan, including 3.98 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock connect and 4.07 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock connect.

On the news surface, MSCI constituent stock half year adjustment result will take effect after todays closing. As a weathervane of global asset allocation, every adjustment of MSCI index is widely concerned. According to historical experience, on the effective day of adjustment of MSCI, FTSE Russell and other international index companies, the northward funds tend to fluctuate significantly.

According to the historical situation of index adjustment, in order to reduce the error of index tracking as much as possible, passive funds usually choose to adjust their positions on the last day. Therefore, it is often seen that the transaction of individual stocks with large weight changes is abnormal enlarged, especially in the late trading. There is no such restriction for active funds. At the same time, some people in the industry said that the adjustment of MSCI index took effect at the end of the month, and the factors of foreign capitals sharp position adjustment at the end of the month should also be taken into account.

Bank stocks rose as expected

On Friday, the industrial and Commercial Bank of China once rose 5.89% in late trading. This triggered a heated discussion on the future of bank stocks in the market over the weekend.

Since the beginning of this year, under the background of the return of the three sectors to the normal, the real driving force of the three sectors of the economy has been to moderate the positive factors of the market valuation.

Under the pro cyclical thinking, bank stocks are not only at the turning point of operation, but also the institutional positions are at a historical low. According to the latest data, the proportion of bank shares held by funds was 2.7%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the second quarter, still at a historical low. At the same time, the proportion of northward capital allocation: the proportion of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect allocated to banks is still relatively low; the proportion of Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect is basically back to the level at the beginning of the year.

After the city commercial bank leads, the stock bank also performs well. After opening, Industrial Bank rose 6% and set a new record. After China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, industrial bank became another joint-stock bank whose share price reached a record high.

How long can the pro cyclical rise last?

From the perspective of the strategy of securities companies, the pro cyclical sector has become an institutional consensus. In the past weekend, the strategy report issued by securities companies almost unanimously favored the pro cyclical sector, believing that the Shanghai index is expected to challenge the new high in the year driven by cyclical stocks.

According to Zhang Xia strategy team of China Merchants Securities, it is expected that the A-share market will continue to maintain the upward trend in December, the Shanghai stock index is expected to break the previous high point, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is expected to continue to record high. The main reasons are that the profits of industrial enterprises are improving rapidly, the demand for real estate infrastructure investment is still relatively strong, the inventory is falling rapidly, the price is rising continuously, and the global economy is continuing to repair.

Zhang Xia said that the valuation of Pro cyclical plate is expected to continue to increase after the performance has been greatly improved. At the same time, the market is expected to continue to adjust its position in the direction of undervalued Pro cyclical towards the end of the year. It is not ruled out that under the leadership of Finance, the blue chip weight index will rise rapidly in stages.

Liu Chenming, chief of joint strategy of Tianfeng securities, said that looking forward, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 represented by Pro cyclical performance will be more dominant in the next half of the year, and there is generally room for further repair of valuation in the pro cyclical industry. In this round of PPI recovery cycle, the quantile and absolute value of Pb valuation of most optional consumption and cycle are still low. Tianfeng Securities said that in the next half of the year, the continued rise of PPI, the continued export and the increase of domestic economic recovery are the main reasons to promote the strength of Pro cyclical industries. In consideration of the degree to which profits in the pro cyclical period benefit from the recovery of overseas demand, the correlation between the recovery of PPI, the Pb position of different sectors, and the persistence of excess earnings, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the sectors of petroleum and chemical industry, basic metals, insurance, automobile and parts, home appliances, furniture and home textiles. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4425

Liu Chenming, chief of joint strategy of Tianfeng securities, said that looking forward, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 represented by Pro cyclical performance will be more dominant in the next half of the year, and there is generally room for further repair of valuation in the pro cyclical industry. In this round of PPI recovery cycle, the quantile and absolute value of Pb valuation of most optional consumption and cycle are still low.

Tianfeng Securities said that in the next half of the year, the continued rise of PPI, the continued export and the increase of domestic economic recovery are the main reasons to promote the strength of Pro cyclical industries. In consideration of the degree to which profits in the pro cyclical period benefit from the recovery of overseas demand, the correlation between the recovery of PPI, the Pb position of different sectors, and the persistence of excess earnings, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the sectors of petroleum and chemical industry, basic metals, insurance, automobile and parts, home appliances, furniture and home textiles.