Shanghai index is expected to challenge a new high in the year! Are you counting money or weeping quietly?

category:Finance
 Shanghai index is expected to challenge a new high in the year! Are you counting money or weeping quietly?


Within the brokerage plate, CICC touched the trading limit, and the share price reached a new high. The trading limit of Guosheng financial holding and Zhongtai securities increased by more than 8%.

The net purchase of northbound capital was 8 billion yuan in half a day

In terms of funds, northward capital inflow for four consecutive weeks, reappearance of large net buying on Monday morning. As of the midday closing, the total net purchases of northbound funds exceeded 8 billion yuan, including 3.98 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock connect and 4.07 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock connect.

According to the historical situation of index adjustment, in order to reduce the error of index tracking as much as possible, passive funds usually choose to adjust their positions on the last day. Therefore, it is often seen that the transaction of individual stocks with large weight changes is abnormal enlarged, especially in the late trading. There is no such restriction for active funds. At the same time, some people in the industry said that the adjustment of MSCI index took effect at the end of the month, and the factors of foreign capitals sharp position adjustment at the end of the month should also be taken into account.

Bank stocks rose as expected

After experiencing the fermentation of the weekend, the bank plate has almost no rival plate! A private equity market opened with emotion.

What really excites the market is that since the third quarter report, the factors that suppress the valuation of the banking sector have eased since the third quarter report, under the background that the endogenous momentum of the economy is getting better and the macro policies are returning to normal.

After the brewing at the end of last week, the market expectations are gradually consistent. In the end, leading to the opening of bank shares rose. After the opening of the Bank of Qingdao, only one minute later, it was closed to the limit, with 620000 orders. Xiamen bank also immediately limit.

After the city commercial bank leads, the stock bank also performs well. After opening, Industrial Bank rose 6% and set a new record. After China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, industrial bank became another joint-stock bank whose share price reached a record high.

From the perspective of the strategy of securities companies, the pro cyclical sector has become an institutional consensus. In the past weekend, the strategy report issued by securities companies almost unanimously favored the pro cyclical sector, believing that the Shanghai index is expected to challenge the new high in the year driven by cyclical stocks.

According to Zhang Xia strategy team of China Merchants Securities, it is expected that the A-share market will continue to maintain the upward trend in December, the Shanghai stock index is expected to break the previous high point, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is expected to continue to record high. The main reasons are that the profits of industrial enterprises are improving rapidly, the demand for real estate infrastructure investment is still relatively strong, the inventory is falling rapidly, the price is rising continuously, and the global economy is continuing to repair.

Zhang Xia said that the valuation of Pro cyclical plate is expected to continue to increase after the performance has been greatly improved. At the same time, the market is expected to continue to adjust its position in the direction of undervalued Pro cyclical towards the end of the year. It is not ruled out that under the leadership of Finance, the blue chip weight index will rise rapidly in stages.

Liu Chenming, chief of joint strategy of Tianfeng securities, said that looking forward, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 represented by Pro cyclical performance will be more dominant in the next half of the year, and there is generally room for further repair of valuation in the pro cyclical industry. In this round of PPI recovery cycle, the quantile and absolute value of Pb valuation of most optional consumption and cycle are still low.

Tianfeng Securities said that in the next half of the year, the continued rise of PPI, the continued export and the increase of domestic economic recovery are the main reasons to promote the strength of Pro cyclical industries. In consideration of the degree to which profits in the pro cyclical period benefit from the recovery of overseas demand, the correlation between the recovery of PPI, the Pb position of different sectors, and the persistence of excess earnings, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the sectors of petroleum and chemical industry, basic metals, insurance, automobile and parts, home appliances, furniture and home textiles.