V-shaped reversal after sharp fall of international gold price and handshake at 1800 US dollar level

category:Finance
 V-shaped reversal after sharp fall of international gold price and handshake at 1800 US dollar level


The biggest drop in the international gold price in the month was nearly 10%

However, on November 29 in Asia, the international gold price staged a V-shaped reversal trend. In the session, the main Comex gold 2102 contract rebounded strongly from the low point of $1776.5/oz, with the highest intraday rush to $1822.60/oz. As of the time of press release, the contract had received 1790.7 US dollars / oz, 277000 transactions, 376500 positions and 36000 daily increases, up 10.6%.

Several banks take measures to deal with the change of gold price

A number of banks said in the announcement that the recent international precious metal market price volatility, investment and transaction risk increased. ICBC said that due to the impact of complex factors such as the epidemic situation, the current precious metal market risk is high, and investors are reminded to reasonably control the size of their positions, make transaction arrangements, improve their awareness of risk prevention and pay attention to risk control.

However, the time limits on the suspension of new account opening requirements are inconsistent. For example, China Construction Bank requires that, from November 30, precious metals (including two-way transactions) and the precious metal trading business of the agency personal shangjinsuo will be suspended from handling contract opening. Bank of communications announced that since 12:00 on November 28, the Bank of communications will suspend the opening of new accounts for bookkeeping precious metals, personal precious metals and new customers of manjinbao business. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced that, from 24:00 on November 28, all channels (including counter, mobile banking, online banking, ICBC e investment) personal account gold, account silver business, new customers to open trading accounts, the normal transactions of customers who have opened accounts will not be affected; from 9:00 on November 28, it will suspend the acceptance of all channels (including counter, mobile banking, online banking, ICBC Application for bidding transaction of precious metals for individual customers.

Shanghai Gold Exchange has also taken measures to increase the margin of related precious metal varieties. Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice saying that in order to further guard against market risks, the margin ratio of nyautn12 contract of Shanghai newfounds will be adjusted. From November 30, the margin ratio of nyautn12 contract will be adjusted from 12% to 15%, and will return to the level of gold product margin ratio after the closing and liquidation on December 15.

Up to now, Shanghai Futures Exchange has not taken relevant measures for gold futures.

The international gold price fell below the US $1800 / oz level. Combined with the upside down of Shanghai gold futures 2102 and 2012 contracts and the over fall of Shanghai gold exchange rate, this round of gold price correction has brought a great impact on the market, and the measures taken by many banks to suspend the opening of new personal precious metal accounts have exceeded market expectations. The suspension of new account opening is equivalent to taking the initiative to eliminate multiple orders in disguise. Huang Yan told the Securities Daily that the measures taken by several banks to suspend the opening of new accounts have had a certain impact on the domestic gold market, with strong negative sentiment, which is also the key to the recent domestic gold price breaking down.

Analysts are optimistic about the trend in the first half of next year

Although the global economic recovery is expected to be optimistic for the time being, which brings a heavy setback to the rising international gold price, the gold price still recovers rapidly after a short-term dip, which once again boosts the confidence of gold price bulls. Some analysts believe that in the next three to six months, the international gold price is expected to return to above $2000 / oz.

There is still uncertainty in the international economic recovery, and the risk of periodic fluctuation of gold price still exists. However, the upper space of market liquidity has been opened, and investors can still consider buying gold at a low price. Huang Yan told reporters that in August this year, the trend of gold was not consistent with that of copper, crude oil and other commodities, and the rise of gold alone may be accidental. But at present, the rising pace of many leading commodities varieties is consistent, which shows that the rising space of gold price has opened, and the medium and long-term rise should be inevitable.

Paul Robinson, managing director of the UK Commodity Research Institute (CRU), said the volatility and uncertainty in global markets next year would be enough to support gold prices to return above $2000 an ounce in the next three to six months. It is expected that in the first half of next year, gold prices will be supported by strong fundamentals, with good upward space, and there is still reason to continue to hold gold.

Some analysts believe that gold is still the most valuable asset to hold in the first half of 2021s commodity allocation rankings. Precious metals have greater upward potential than non-ferrous metals, because the macro policies of all countries around the world are difficult to translate into real demand quickly.