V-shaped reversal after sharp fall of international gold price and handshake at 1800 US dollar level

category:Finance
 V-shaped reversal after sharp fall of international gold price and handshake at 1800 US dollar level


Securities Daily reporter learned that since the fourth quarter, the international gold price has been hovering around the 1900 US dollar / ounce level. In November, the international gold price has reached a periodic high of US $1973.3/oz. International gold prices remain high, reflecting investors concerns about the decline in economic recovery expectations and the gradual increase of market risks. However, in recent days, the global economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and the international gold price once staged a cliff fall. On November 27, the main Comex gold 2102 contract fell below the support of 1800 US dollars / oz for the first time, setting a periodic low of 1776.5 US dollars / ounce. Securities Daily reporter found that the biggest drop in the international gold price in the month has reached 9.97%.

However, on November 29 in Asia, the international gold price staged a V-shaped reversal trend. In the session, the main Comex gold 2102 contract rebounded strongly from the low point of $1776.5/oz, with the highest intraday rush to $1822.60/oz. As of the time of press release, the contract had received 1790.7 US dollars / oz, 277000 transactions, 376500 positions and 36000 daily increases, up 10.6%.

Several banks take measures to deal with the change of gold price

Securities Daily reporter learned that this round of gold price correction has brought a lot of impact on the market. Recently, two domestic banks have announced measures to limit the risk of investment in precious metal accounts. On November 27, industrial and Commercial Bank of China, construction bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and other banks successively announced that they would suspend individual accounts and open trading accounts for new customers of precious metals.

A number of banks said in the announcement that the recent international precious metal market price volatility, investment and transaction risk increased. ICBC said that due to the impact of complex factors such as the epidemic situation, the current precious metal market risk is high, and investors are reminded to reasonably control the size of their positions, make transaction arrangements, improve their awareness of risk prevention and pay attention to risk control.

Up to now, Shanghai Futures Exchange has not taken relevant measures for gold futures.

The international gold price fell below the US $1800 / oz level. Combined with the upside down of Shanghai gold futures 2102 and 2012 contracts and the over fall of Shanghai gold exchange rate, this round of gold price correction has brought a great impact on the market, and the measures taken by many banks to suspend the opening of new personal precious metal accounts have exceeded market expectations. The suspension of new account opening is equivalent to taking the initiative to eliminate multiple orders in disguise. Huang Yan told the Securities Daily that the measures taken by several banks to suspend the opening of new accounts have had a certain impact on the domestic gold market, with strong negative sentiment, which is also the key to the recent domestic gold price breaking down.

Analysts are optimistic about the trend in the first half of next year

Although the global economic recovery is expected to be optimistic for the time being, which brings a heavy setback to the rising international gold price, the gold price still recovers rapidly after a short-term dip, which once again boosts the confidence of gold price bulls. Some analysts believe that in the next three to six months, the international gold price is expected to return to above $2000 / oz.

Paul Robinson, managing director of the UK Commodity Research Institute (CRU), said the volatility and uncertainty in global markets next year would be enough to support gold prices to return above $2000 an ounce in the next three to six months. It is expected that in the first half of next year, gold prices will be supported by strong fundamentals, with good upward space, and there is still reason to continue to hold gold.

Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Securities Daily_ NF4368