The sudden outbreak of these unexpected stocks makes investors wonder. They neither belong to the concept of Pro cyclical, nor belong to the industry with high prosperity. Under the background of repeated speculation of the A-share Pro cyclical plate, they can suddenly emerge. What happened?
Institutions estimate that the scale of community group buying industry reaches one trillion yuan
In the second half of 2020, more than half of the Internet giants have entered the community group buying, such as Alibaba, Tencent, meituan, pinduoduo and didi have already set up a community group purchase project called Jingdong optimization internally. The competition of half wall Internet giants in this field has aroused more peoples attention, and has been transmitted to the secondary capital market, which has led to the rapid rise of related concept stocks recently.
Community group buying is considered to be a new track for Internet companies to make efforts in the sinking market. How does the community group buying model affect the pattern of retail business? Anxin Securities pointed out that the short-term impact is mainly in quantity. Community group buying mainly replaces farmers markets and wholesale markets, and partially replaces supermarkets. In the long run, community group buying is expected to force supermarket business model innovation, expand e-commerce formats and change e-commerce pattern.
The advantages of community group buying mode are obvious. For consumers, it can provide more convenience for customers, and the price is better than that of traditional retail and lower than the platform price of Taobao and other online e-commerce platforms; for investors, the main investment of community group buying is light assets, the mode is light, and the investment is less than that of physical stores.
Anxin Securities pointed out in the research report that since Hunan Province is the most mature business form and the cross regional ability of community group buying business is partially verified, the industry space is calculated based on Hunan area, market size = number of users (total population of areas where order density can support the community group buying mode * penetration rate) * purchase frequency * customer unit price, and estimate the market space of national community group buying under the neutral assumption It is expected that the market space will reach 1496.5 billion.
Ideal is perfect, reality is the backbone
As a new business model, the bright prospect of community group buying will inevitably lead to the competition of Internet giants. In fact, according to the Research Report of Anxin securities, in the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic situation, consumers shopping frequency decreased and the proportion of online retail increased significantly. In the early stage of the outbreak of community group buying mode, a profit margin of 5% - 10% can be achieved (excluding the administrative R & D expenses of the headquarters) under the condition of 5% deduction of group buying mode in the community.
Subsequently, due to competition, expansion and other factors intensified, the industry suffered losses. Just like this, the group buying, cycling and takeout markets, the competition of top companies in the same competition, the market share grabbing, and the use of large amount of capital subsidies will inevitably increase the industry losses and produce crowding out effect on small and medium-sized investors.
In terms of the replicability of the model, whether it can penetrate the middle-aged and elderly groups and sink into a broader rural market remains to be verified. There is still a lot of room for improvement in user experience and supply chain channel cooperation.
Institutions generally expect that the current competition pattern is still uncertain and the profit performance is uncertain.
Anxin Securities believes that for the e-commerce industry, the problems of fresh retail mode in low-level cities may be solved, and e-commerce ushers in business expansion and further growth. In terms of pattern, community group buying plays a springboard or stepping stone role in the expansion of business territory of some companies, or lays a foundation stone for the long-term development of these companies and affects the long-term pattern.
Community group buying is becoming more and more popular. However, the topic about group buying in public opinion is also very hot. Some people think that it is cruel to take away the livelihood of vegetable vendors.
As for the impact of the secondary market, on November 27, the trading limit of many concept stocks was raised. Huaxin Securities Shanghai branch led the speculation, buying 10.29 million yuan of Guolian aquatic products and 15.07 million yuan of Zhangzi Island. In early trading today, Guolian aquatic products opened high and went high, once blocking the 20% limit. Later, the stock price fell back. The latest price was nearly 8% lower than the intraday high. That is to say, if someone buys at the highest point, it has lost 8% at present.
Some market analysts believe that the impact of community group buying on the market is still difficult to estimate, the impact on Listed Companies in the secondary capital market is very small, it is difficult to significantly improve the companys performance, and the rise of related concept stocks is more subject matter speculation.
In the early trading, the main funds flowed into these stocks
In the morning trading today, the trend of the three major indexes was divided. The Shanghai composite index opened high and went high. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem fluctuated higher. The financial sector and nonferrous metals continued to be active and relatively strong. The liquor sector led the decline. The market volume was significantly enlarged. At noon, the Shanghai index rose 1.07%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.7%, and the gem rose 1.04%. The Shanghai Stock connect had a net inflow of 4.129 billion yuan in the early trading, and the Shenzhen Stock connect had a net inflow of 4.146 billion yuan in the early trading.
In terms of main funds, the net inflow of Dongfang fortune, CICC and BOE a exceeded 1 billion yuan, totaling 5 billion yuan. In terms of industry, non-bank finance, electronics and non-ferrous metal industry received the largest inflow of capital, while food and beverage, electrical equipment and household appliances received the largest net outflow of capital. (Wu Qi, databao)
Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Qian_ NF4425