Wang Xingliang: in 2021, the market may inevitably fluctuate due to the bull market in the previous two years and the high market valuation, but there will be no systemic risk.
Wang Keyu of Hongde Fund: whether the market liquidity will continue to shrink next year depends on the recovery of the global economy. If the economy returns to a relatively hot state soon, liquidity contraction is inevitable. But at present, both China and overseas are far from reaching the austerity caused by overheating, so there is no need to worry too much about the market risk next year.
Zhao Yi of Agricultural Bank of China Huili Fund: pay more attention to the direction with increment: first, the direction of demand increase brought by technological progress, including new energy and 5g application; second, the direction of domestic substitution and making up for the weak points, especially the high-end manufacturing industry mainly composed of aeroengine, semiconductor and Beidou.
China Europe Fund Wang Jian: next year, we are more optimistic about industries with obvious marginal improvement, including automobile and household appliances, chemical industry and service related industries. In the long-term dimension, more attention should be paid to the development of pharmaceutical, automotive electric and intelligent, photovoltaic and other industries in the new economic field.
Securities Times reporter Fang Li, Lu Huijing, Zhang Yanbei
Seven fund managers believe that the big probability of 2021 will still be structural market, but we should moderately reduce the expected return; they are relatively optimistic about finance, chemical industry, alternative consumption, new energy, military industry and other industries.
Seize structural opportunities
Appropriately reduce revenue expectations
Securities Times reporter: whats your opinion on the macro environment and market opportunities next year? What are the core factors affecting the market? What are the main risks?
Sun Di: on the macro level, 2021 may enter an environment of economic recovery and gradual return to normal and moderate contraction of monetary credit. With profit support, we are not pessimistic about the equity market, and the overall systemic risk is not big. However, in the case of liquidity contraction, the market lacks the basis for a substantial rise, so it is necessary to appropriately reduce earnings expectations and better grasp structural opportunities.
The core factors or potential risk points affecting the market next year mainly include: whether the domestic economic recovery trend can continue in the second half of the year, the pace and intensity of tightening liquidity environment, the 14th five year plan, vaccine and overseas epidemic control, Sino US relations after Biden takes office, etc.
Zhao Yi: this years epidemic has had a great impact on the whole economy and the market. Next year, we should pay attention to the following aspects: whether the vaccine can be successfully launched and the epidemic situation can be controlled; whether the economic growth can recover smoothly in the post epidemic era; whether the liquidity will be gradually tightened after the economic recovery; and the new China policy of the United States.
Huang Xingliang: after next years epidemic, Chinas economic development is likely to usher in a very important period. How to seize this period, strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries, and jointly create a more lasting prosperity period, is a very important thing. In this process, money, as a medium, is indispensable.
In 2021, economic growth may exceed expectations, and monetary tightening may be more moderate, which will not be a major factor in market decline. The market may have some volatility due to the bull market in the past two years and the generally high valuation, but there will be no systemic risk.
The core factors driving the market up in 2021 are more and more optimistic economic growth expectations and less worries about monetary tightening. The potential risk may be the risk that some growth industries or individual stocks are under pressure and profit taking due to the high expectation of investors.
Jia Chengdong: the economy is weak this year, but the market performance is very good. The driving force is more from the abundant liquidity in the financial market and the market earning effect generated by the bull market for two consecutive years. In the second half of the year, the epidemic situation gradually eased, the monetary policy and economy gradually returned to normal. The liquidity environment in the market was not as loose as before, and it gradually became a structural market. The rising industries and stocks also became the varieties damaged by the epidemic or the varieties of supplementary inflation.
Wang Keyu: the most important opportunity next year will come from the recovery and promotion of enterprise profits. Now, we are worried about the recovery of production activities after the application and promotion of vaccines in developed countries, and whether our exports will be impacted. Our judgment on demand is relatively optimistic, and there will be no big changes in manufacturing exports next year.
Another factor is whether the liquidity of the market will continue to shrink? I think it depends on the recovery of the global economy. If the economy returns to a relatively hot state soon, liquidity contraction is inevitable. But at present, whether from China or overseas, it is far from the contraction caused by overheating, so there is no need to worry too much about the market risk next year. The factors that influence and drive the market up have not changed, so we have no reason to think that the market will turn.
Bo Guanhui: the consensus on monetary and fiscal policies next year is to return to normal from the emergency stage caused by the new crown epidemic. Without easing in 2020, the overall market valuation level is less likely to improve. However, from a macro perspective, Chinas economic growth is better than that in 2020, showing a trend of high before and low after; the superposition of the new crown vaccine boosts the global economic recovery. Although the stimulus policy is withdrawn, there are still many structural opportunities in 2021. The core influencing factors are the implementation of the three red lines of real estate policy and their impact on the growth of social finance. The potential risks lie in the rise of overseas inflation and the transmission of domestic commodities.
Wang Jian: it is estimated that Chinas economic recovery will be ahead of other major economies in 2021. The driving force of domestic economic growth is gradually spreading from infrastructure and real estate at the beginning of the year to consumption and manufacturing. As the economy stabilizes, domestic policies will gradually return to normal from the extreme level. The driving factor of equity market will shift from liquidity driven to profit driven this year. Under the background of macro recovery, the profitability of enterprises is in the upward cycle, and the overall market still has structural opportunities. The potential risk lies in the upward risk of interest rate caused by inflation caused by the recovery of domestic and peripheral economies after the epidemic situation is effectively controlled.
Optimistic about financial, chemical, alternative consumption, new energy, military industry and other sectors
Securities Times reporter: have you started to plan the layout for next year? Which industries and areas are you more optimistic about?
Sun Di: we have already started to make corresponding layout for the market next year. In the next year, especially in the first half of the year, it is relatively certain that the global economy will recover synchronously. Profitability may be the main driving factor for the market to move upward. We are relatively optimistic about the improvement of supply and demand structure, the upward Pro cyclical and high prospect of profit trend, including finance, chemical industry, alternative consumption, new energy, military industry, etc. For consumption, medicine, technology and other sectors with a large increase this year and high historical valuations, if the valuation can be digested in the near future, there may be a good opportunity for next year.
In a longer dimension, we are very optimistic about the field of new energy. Although this years increase has been very large, we should see that this is the direction in which the three major economies of the United States, China and Europe are continuously increasing their investment. Whether photovoltaic or new energy vehicles, China has the most complete and competitive industrial chain in the world, which will benefit from the global development.
Huang Xingliang: we have been adjusting the fund portfolio according to the market dynamics. Under the strategy of long-term growth, companies with large growth space and active growth in various industries are selected to hold and pay attention to for a long time.
There are many uncertainties in the market next year. Institutional investors have achieved higher returns in the past two years, and the possibility of mean reversion is increasing. Due to the low valuation of large financial and other weighted sectors, it is unlikely that large systemic risks will occur in the market.
Under the background of the increasing proportion of institutional investors and the reform of registration system and trading system, the cost of speculation is rising. The ecology of A-share market is approaching the overseas developed market irreversibly: a few high-quality companies get premium, and most ordinary and average performance companies gradually marginalize or even discount. The future A-share market is likely to be more structured, and the long-term industrial trend changes will have a greater impact on the market. In the long run, we maintain our focus on cloud computing, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, medicine and other scientific and technological innovation fields.
Jia Chengdong: next years market may be more complex, and it is more difficult to see clearly, but on the whole, there will be two opportunities to grasp. There may be obvious differences in the style and industry in the first and second half of the year. In the first half of this year, we are mainly optimistic about the stocks damaged by the epidemic, such as banks, chemicals, aviation, hotels, etc., which have a small increase this year and whose performance is gradually improving. These areas have phased cost-effective advantages, but may not last for the whole year. In the second half of next year, there may be opportunities for technology-based sectors. Of course, the above judgment also depends on three factors: first, whether the 5g construction is in place and whether new applications are generated; second, whether the way of handling Sino US relations has changed; third, whether there are variables in the promotion of vaccines.
Wang Keyu: from our long-term experience of tracking enterprises, we will pay more attention to Chinas core industries with obvious comparative advantages in the future: first, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. At present, Chinas manufacturing industry has already possessed global competitiveness at the equipment level and is making rapid breakthroughs in the field of core components. These are our long-term promising opportunities in the future. Secondly, the development of Chinas emerging industries has optimized the efficiency of economic growth, and its advantages will become more and more obvious in the future. Finally, in the process of industrial upgrading, consumption upgrading is also a major direction. Under the above background, we will rely on these core industries, build a relatively scattered combination of industries and styles, constantly optimize and adjust, and create a relatively good return for customers in the long term.
Bo Guanhui: he is participating in the strategy meeting of securities companies intensively, investigating companies and industries, and making layout for 2021.
First of all, we are optimistic about the opportunities for alternative consumption, such as the gradual recovery of household appliances, automobiles and furniture after the epidemic. Secondly, we are optimistic about new energy opportunities, mainly solar energy and new energy vehicles under the carbon neutral policy. The third is optimistic about the independent cycle of the plate, such as the military industry.
The market style will be more balanced next year
Securities Times reporter: there has been a style shift in the market recently. How do you look at this change in the market? Will the warehouse be adjusted in the last month? How to adjust the warehouse?
Sun Di: the recent changes in the market have not only the impact of macro-economic and monetary environment changes, but also the impact of some plate events. On the whole, the market next year will be more balanced than this year. Compared with the relatively concentrated industry configuration this year, some adjustments may be needed in the future. In addition, whether the vaccine can be successfully launched in the near future, the strength of domestic and overseas economic recovery, and the pace of monetary policy withdrawal will affect the choice of the industry.
Zhao Yi: there was a big gap in the valuation and increase between the growth stocks of consumption + technology and the value stocks of cycle + finance. With the expectation of economic growth getting better, there will be a process of rebalancing in the market.
My overall configuration direction will not change significantly. Still based on the industrial trend and company development, select competitive high-quality leading enterprises to obtain the return brought by stable performance and sustained growth. Not too much to pursue changes in market style.
Later, I pay more attention to the direction with increment: first, the direction of increasing demand brought about by technological progress, including new energy and 5g application; the other is the direction of domestic substitution and making up for weaknesses, especially the high-end manufacturing industry dominated by aero-engine, semiconductor and Beidou. In terms of portfolio configuration, 5g industrial chain, new energy and high-end manufacturing are still the main products.
Huang Xingliang: the recent correction of medicine is in line with our expectations. In the first half of the year, due to the obvious comparative advantage under the epidemic situation, the pharmaceutical sector rose sharply. Since the second half of the year, the epidemic situation began to ease in China, the vaccine progress gradually accelerated, the economic recovery led to the weakening of the comparative advantage of medicine, and the stock price overdrawn more expectations. In this case, it is normal for medicine to have a callback. Especially after the third quarter report, pharmaceutical stocks entered the performance vacuum period. At the same time, the demand of centralized purchase of new medical insurance bureau increased significantly, and the negotiation of high-value consumables and innovative drugs was put on the agenda. In the case of no performance and no comparative advantage, the policy suppresses the medicine to appear the callback under the overvalue. At the present time point, due to the continuous performance vacuum period, the policy has not been fully implemented, pharmaceutical stocks still have a certain pressure in the fourth quarter. However, investment is a long-term process, we should also see the long-term value of pharmaceutical stocks while reasonably dealing with the fourth quarter correction.
In terms of computer sector, it is suggested to select stocks from a long-term perspective and seize the opportunity; and pay long-term attention to the subject with good fundamentals, strong core competitiveness, good industry pattern and large long-term space. Digitalization, online and intellectualization are long-term trends, and many companies in the computer sector have benefited for a long time.
Non ferrous metals and other pro cyclical plates have increased more recently, mainly due to the impact of global reconstruction and economic recovery expectations. With the arrival of the turning point of the epidemic situation, there are still some opportunities for the pro cyclical plate in the short term. In the long run, they are more inclined to choose the track with more space for growth.
Wang Keyu: in July, the focus of market discussion was still on the long-term track of medicine, consumption, science and technology. At that time, the attention to traditional industries was relatively low. However, at that time, we also saw that some enterprises with strong operation ability and long-term advantages in traditional industries were not paid much attention to by the market. From the perspective of investment, the pricing level given was very attractive. On the contrary, in some relatively hot short-term industries, both high-quality companies and general companies have given relatively high valuations.
Bo Guanhui: there are policy factors in the recent continuous adjustment, such as the callback of the pharmaceutical sector caused by the centralized purchase of medicine and the negotiation of medical insurance, and some of them benefited from the excessive increase of epidemic situation in the first half of 2021. Considering the high year-on-year base in the first half of 2021 and the decline of market investment enthusiasm, such as the food sector. The fourth quarter is an opportunity to relocate for the coming year, and it is normal for the market to fluctuate more. The adjustment of positions is mainly based on the economic recovery progress, the growth rate of social finance, the industry prosperity, the growth rate of the companys profits and the valuation, so as to rearrange the layout in 2021.
Wang Jian: the assets that performed well in the first half of the year, including medicine, science and technology, and consumption, had a big adjustment, which was related to the liquidity shift from loose to neutral. With the clear trend of economic recovery, the pro cyclical industry also shows many signs of marginal improvement, and also has a better value for allocation. I have always adhered to the principle of matching valuation with growth for portfolio allocation.
Which reporter is more optimistic about the future investment opportunities of Hong Kong stock market?
Sun Di: in the future, the trend of RMB appreciation may continue. Whether a shares or Hong Kong shares, high-quality equity assets are worth long-term prospects. At present, the valuation of Hong Kong stock market is low, and the overseas liquidity is relatively loose. A number of leading Internet companies listed in Hong Kong stock market are very high-quality assets. As the epidemic situation is under control and the external environment tends to be stable, it is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will be an asset with better cost performance next year.
Jia Chengdong: the fundamentals of many Hong Kong stocks are really good. For example, many giants in the TMT sector are listed in the Hong Kong stock market; there are star companies in the clothing and textile, catering, beer and other industries. From the perspective of fundamentals, there is indeed investment value. However, I am not as familiar with the investor behavior and market sentiment changes of Hong Kong stocks as that of a shares. In the attitude of being responsible to investors, I am more cautious about investing in Hong Kong stocks.
Wang Jian: from the perspective of the overall cost performance of the two markets, the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are relatively greater.
Core assets in the golden track
Securities Times reporter: core assets such as medicine, science and technology, and consumption have risen for two years, and their valuations have increased significantly. How do you look at the investment opportunities in these sectors?
Sun Di: after two years of sharp rise, the valuation level of these core assets has reached a historical high position. Next year, in the environment where the valuation is difficult to continue to improve, we need to select the target and appropriately reduce the income expectation. In the high roe plate with good competition pattern in some subdivision directions of medium and high-end liquor and medicine, if the industry prosperity and profit trend do not change greatly, the medium and long-term investment return can still be good. There are more uncertain factors in the science and technology sector, including Sino US relations, downstream demand, domestic enterprises own technological breakthroughs, etc., and the opportunities of the plate still need to be observed.
Zhao Yi: in the past few years, consumption + technology is the best growth line in the market. The share prices of leading enterprises have increased several times. On the one hand, it comes from the growth of their own performance, on the other hand, it is the improvement of valuation. Next year, liquidity will not be as loose as it was during the epidemic, which will restrain the expansion of valuation to a certain extent. At the same time, it also means that excessive valuation needs to be digested through continuous growth of performance.
From this point of view, both consumption and technology have to face the test of performance realization, and stock selection becomes more difficult. Next years growth stocks as a whole may be a bit dull compared with the past two years, and the choice of individual stocks is more important.
Jia Chengdong: I like two kinds of stocks best. One is better than myself every day or always good, and the other is better than others in the current market. Medicine, science and technology, and consumption are all industries I like and familiar with. But as a fund manager of selected industries and stocks in the whole market, if the valuation of these core assets continues to be too high, there is no need to tangle in these fields, and there are many varieties that can be concerned about.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Securities Times_ NBJ9607