Peak season market will come, pork prices rise significantly, institutions focus on quality growth stocks

category:Finance
 Peak season market will come, pork prices rise significantly, institutions focus on quality growth stocks


Animal husbandry experts believe that with the frequent occurrence of freezing rain and snow in winter, highway transportation will be affected. The cross regional deployment of pig and semi-finished products will face certain difficulties, which will increase the difficulty of terminal procurement. Some provinces in China stopped the introduction of foreign pigs, which also aggravated the regional imbalance of pig resources distribution to a certain extent. The approach of new years day and Spring Festival has boosted market demand. Due to the gradual recovery of pig production capacity and the large volume of pig trade, experts predict that pig prices will usher in a wave of upward trend, but the overall level is still lower than the same period last year.

China Securities construction investment believes that the recent stable rise in pig prices is mainly driven by demand, while adding to the impact of the northern epidemic since winter. Due to the obvious seasonal characteristics of pork price, November, December and January of each year are the peak of pork demand, and usually start with the demand of curing in Southwest China. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises will be significantly higher than other months. Affected by seasonal consumption, the peak of pig price in normal years will also appear in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, since the winter of November, the northern epidemic prevention and control has faced great challenges, especially in Shandong. From the proportion of commercial pigs below 90kg, the low-weight pigs in Shandong have increased significantly in recent two weeks. At the same time, the import of pork decreased by 12% month on month in October, and the ban on trans provincial transfer of live pigs in six provinces in central and southern China may also play a certain role in boosting.

Guotai Junan research paper points out that this round of cycle brings huge profits to the industry, but it also raises the break even line of the industry. The production capacity of breeding pigs will be the decisive factor to determine the current profitability and future viability of the pig breeding industry. With the gradual decline of pig price, it is only a matter of time for large-scale farms without the ability to provide piglets by themselves and the losses of individual farmers. After the waves have washed sand, the top enterprises that can survive in the bottom of the industry are the head enterprises that retain their own breeding farms and have excellent cost control ability. Guotai Junan suggests that in the future, it should continue to pay attention to the breeding growth stocks with high efficiency and good cost control ability in the process of large-scale cultivation. In the long run, the concentration of the pig industry has been improved. From the perspective of growth, it is recommended that the pig industry, including muyuan shares, new hope, Zhengbang technology, Wenshi shares, DaBeiNong, Tiankang biology, etc. Source of this article: Yang Qian, editor in charge of CFA_ NF4425

Guotai Junan research paper points out that this round of cycle brings huge profits to the industry, but it also raises the break even line of the industry. The production capacity of breeding pigs will be the decisive factor to determine the current profitability and future viability of the pig breeding industry. With the gradual decline of pig price, it is only a matter of time for large-scale farms without the ability to provide piglets by themselves and the losses of individual farmers. After the waves have washed sand, the top enterprises that can survive in the bottom of the industry are the head enterprises that retain their own breeding farms and have excellent cost control ability.

Guotai Junan suggests that in the future, it should continue to pay attention to the breeding growth stocks with high efficiency and good cost control ability in the process of large-scale cultivation. In the long run, the concentration of the pig industry has been improved. From the perspective of growth, it is recommended that the pig industry, including muyuan shares, new hope, Zhengbang technology, Wenshi shares, DaBeiNong, Tiankang biology, etc.