The A-share market staged the end of the year. On November 27, the overall strength of the big financial sector and the strong rise of the banking sector led the Shanghai stock index to return to 3400 points. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index reached a new high in nearly 12 years. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose nearly 6% on the same day, which surprised the market. On November 27, the three indexes of a shares closed up. As of the closing, the Shanghai index was up 1.14% to close at 3408.31 points; the Shenzhen composite index was up 0.67% to close at 13690.88 points; the gem index was up 0.37% to close at 2618.99 points.
Fund positions, CAITONG securities data show that as of November 23, 2957 active equity funds (excluding stock long short) overall position of 81.88%. Among them, the position of stock fund is 91.84%, the position of partial stock mixed fund is 88.13%, the position of flexible allocation fund is 68.65%, and the position of balanced fund is the lowest, only 58.22%. At present, although the overall position of active equity funds is relatively high, there are big differences in industry allocation. In the recent two months of volatile market, plate rotation is more frequent. The top five heavy warehouse industries of the fund are medicine and biology, food and beverage, electrical equipment, household appliances and electronics; the last five industries are mining, mechanical equipment, commercial trade, public utilities, and architectural decoration. In addition to the steel industry has been significantly increased positions and transportation has been significantly reduced, the proportion of other industries has no significant change compared with the previous.
In the recent market, the fund products with the extreme distribution in the industry, such as energy and large financial sectors, have benefited from the recent market. With the pursuit of market funds, the effect has been instant. Some people in the industry believe that this is the logic of funds looking for undervalued plates, but behind it is not so much the effectiveness of some investment strategy, but rather the short-term outbreak of fund performance due to the market style. A fund manager of a fund company in Shanghai said. This is true. Looking at the fund managers who aim at undervalued strategy in the market, we can find that under the guidance of undervalued strategy, these fund managers are looking for undervalued opportunities in various sectors and industries. In this round of so-called valuation rising market, most of the fund products managed by fund managers belong to the situation of two steps forward and one step backward. Heavy positions of stocks rise and fall alternately, and the net value of funds rises slightly.
For the recent Pro cyclical, large financial sector brought about by the market, fund institutions have different views. For investors concerned about the pro cyclical plate market can last long, gold eagle fund Yang Xiaobin believes that mainly depends on the expectation of economic recovery. He predicted that the pro cyclical market could last at least into the first quarter of next year. If we consider the longer recovery cycle of overseas economy, the price of Pro cyclical plate may last longer. In specific industries, Yang Xiaobin said that he was more optimistic about the chemical industry and equipment related sub industries, including home appliances, auto related parts, big finance, etc. In addition, with the expected improvement of the global economy next year and policy support, we are optimistic about photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries.
HSBC Jinxin Fund pointed out that from last weeks trend, the market still did not form a breakthrough. In the fourth quarter of 2020, along with the flattening of economic data and the approach to the end of the year, funds tend to be stable and risk preference declines, which makes it difficult to form a joint force. However, in terms of the current trend of the major moving average, the trend has not been damaged. The market is still in the trend of internal rotation adjustment and overall shocks.
Huang Lihua, fund manager of HSBC Jinxin large cap equity fund, said the recent rise in cyclical stocks was mainly due to the repair of its previous undervalued value. The cycle industry was greatly affected by public health events in the first half of the year. The recent price rise logic and the competitiveness improvement of leading companies under the survival of the fittest and other factors have brought certain structural opportunities to the industry. However, due to the lack of support for medium and long-term growth of some plates such as coal, it is still necessary to be cautious about the overall sustainability of the plate.
Short knife and long spear go to battle together
Chen Guoguang, manager of Tianhong innovation pilot fund, pointed out that the markets short-term pursuit of procyclical plate has brought periodic disturbance pressure to the growth style plate represented by medicine and science and technology, and increased the differentiation of technology stocks. However, with the market heat of growth stocks cooling down, high-quality companies are expected to usher in better buying points. Looking forward to the future, Chen Guoguang believes that based on the expectation of liquidity tightening next year, the market differentiation trend of science and technology sector will be more obvious next year. Excellent companies with real innovation ability and in the rising cycle of the industry will have fundamental support, and the excess earnings will be more obvious.
Chu Yanhui, fund manager of AXA Pudong Bank, pointed out that the current economic recovery is expected to be strong, and the science and technology innovation sector may become a hot spot in the market again. First of all, the recovery of fundamentals provides a strong support for investment, for example, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the third quarter has achieved a double increase on a month on month and year-on-year basis, and this high growth trend is expected to continue, thus forming a support for the whole new energy industry chain; secondly, the profitability of enterprises related to Chinas export industry chain may be further improved due to the recovery of overseas markets; finally, the early stage of receiving trade Industries that are easy to affect, including 5g, semiconductor, chip and other technology segments, are expected to be eased.
At present, pro cyclical short knife and long gun of science and technology medicine have become the choice of many fund managers. The reporter of China Securities News has learned that many fund managers use both short knives and long guns in investment competition, and there are many people who kill in the short term and look at the long and short term. Some fund products in the team have taken part in the investment opportunities of energy and large financial sectors by taking advantage of their positions, but they will limit the investment proportion, and in the investment cycle, they will mainly operate in the short term, which is not the thinking of long-term allocation. A banking fund company equity investment director said.
However, for opportunities in the science and technology and pharmaceutical sectors, fund institutions are not blindly layout. The former fund manager of Shanghai fund company pointed out: science and technology, pharmaceutical sector has the pressure of previous highs, and the rise after periodic correction will face resistance. Although in the medium and long term, the technology and pharmaceutical sectors can perform better, but we also need to pay attention to the periodic pressure after the valuation recovery.
In addition, in the short knife and long gun, some fund managers are in a dilemma. In addition to biomedical, medical and health funds, there are also fund products named after blue chip and value. Taking a blue chip fund as an example, reviewing its operation since 2019, it can be found that after switching from traditional blue chip plates such as liquor and finance to growth blue chips such as food, technology and education, the total income of this year has barely squeezed into the middle reaches of the same category. And in the last month, the net value of the fund has dropped a lot, which is quite eye-catching among the pharmaceutical funds with the same decline list.
There are still variables in the year-end list
At the end of the year, the changing market will affect the investment mentality of fund managers? The answer is yes. Under the relative income ranking, the psychological pressure of fund managers mainly comes from the competition among peers. The periodic performance of procyclicality and large financial sectors has made some fund managers see the opportunity to obtain better returns and rankings, and also made some fund managers feel anxious about the change of their ranking. Especially since the beginning of this year, the year-end performance list may still have a lot of variables under the circumstances of high returns of fund products and small relative gap. Said the director of equity investment of the fund company.
In addition to continuing to struggle in the market, looking for opportunities, many fund managers at the end of the year to look for other ways to hold the rich earnings for the holders. Among them, partial stock funds because of the obvious profit-making effect, attract funds to continue to pour in, some performance funds for the control of scale, have to issue a purchase restriction notice. For example, on November 23, Zhang Kuns medium and small cap e-fund announced that since November 26, the accumulated amount of subscription of a single fund account in non direct selling institutions should not exceed 5000 yuan. Previously, the fund had announced on September 17 that the trading limit would be adjusted from 1 million yuan to 50000 yuan. Xie Zhiyus management of Xingquan Herun and Xingquan Herun also ushered in the quota upgrade. On November 18, Xingquan Heyi issued an announcement limiting the trading limit to less than 10000 yuan. Previously, the fund adjusted its trading limits to 100000 yuan and 20000 yuan on October 9 and November 7, respectively. Xingquan Herun also announced that the trading limit will be less than 10000 yuan. Xingquan Herun has issued purchase restriction orders for many times before, adjusting the upper limit of large amount subscription from 20 million yuan to 10 million yuan on February 4, and further reduced to 100000 yuan on February 13. As the market continued to rise, xingquanherun adjusted the limit to less than 20000 yuan on July 8.
However, as a long-term capital in the capital market, public funds are still brave enough to be a long-distance runner in the investment field. The hot issue of new funds is evidence. Last week, the initial scale of the one-year holding hybrid fund of e-fund, a hybrid product of partial bonds, reached 19.851 billion yuan, ranking seventh in the scale of a single new fund since this year. From November 30 to December 4, there will be 28 new funds to be launched, including active partial shares, fixed income +, index and pure debt, and many powerful public fund companies such as Xingzheng global, Jiashi, Nanfang, Penghua, and central Europe have all launched new products. Market participants predict that if the new fund issuance continues to sell well in the next few weeks, the sales scale of new fund will exceed 3 trillion yuan in 2020.
In addition, fund companies are also practicing long-term investment. YONGYING Fund recently announced that based on its confidence in the long-term healthy and stable development of Chinas capital market, YONGYING fund invested 40 million yuan of inherent capital to subscribe for the class A shares of YONGYING growth pilot hybrid securities investment fund on November 24, 2020. It is reported that this is the eighth time that YONGYING fund has purchased its newly issued equity fund in recent two years. Prior to this, in September this year, YONGYING fund purchased 30 million yuan of its Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect products, YONGYING Hong Kong stock connect quality life wisdom selection hybrid fund. As of November 29, 95 fund companies have purchased 264 times since November 29, with a total amount of 3.163 billion yuan, according to wind data.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NBJ9607